Economic analysis of the standing value of Schinopsis lorentzii (Griseb.) Engl. in the Chaco region, Argentine Republic, during the period 2003-2021

The Chaco region holds the country most extensive reserve of native forests. This study explores how the economic value of Schinopsis lorentzii (Griseb.) Engl. evolved between 2003 and 2021, using time series data on prices and incorporating macroeconomic conditions, market structures, and sensitivi...

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Autores principales: Michela, Julio F., Kees, Sebastián M.
Formato: Artículo revista
Lenguaje:Español
Publicado: Instituto Agrotécnico "Pedro M. Fuentes Godo" - Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias (UNNE) 2025
Materias:
Price series
Standing timber
Quebracho colorado
Serie de precios
Madera en pie
Acceso en línea:https://revistas.unne.edu.ar/index.php/agr/article/view/9013
Aporte de:
Revistas UNNE - Universidad Nacional del Noroeste (UNNE) de Universidad Nacional del Nordeste
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spelling I48-R154-article-90132025-12-23T14:48:19Z Economic analysis of the standing value of Schinopsis lorentzii (Griseb.) Engl. in the Chaco region, Argentine Republic, during the period 2003-2021 Análisis económico de valor en pie de Schinopsis lorentzii (Griseb.) Engl. En la región chaqueña, Republica Argentina durante el período 2003-2021 Michela, Julio F. Kees, Sebastián M. Price series Standing timber Quebracho colorado Serie de precios Madera en pie Quebracho colorado The Chaco region holds the country most extensive reserve of native forests. This study explores how the economic value of Schinopsis lorentzii (Griseb.) Engl. evolved between 2003 and 2021, using time series data on prices and incorporating macroeconomic conditions, market structures, and sensitivity scenarios. Official data from the province of Chaco was adapted to reflect regional conditions. Prices were weighted based on the intended industrial transformation, converted to US dollars, and adjusted for inflation using the U.S. Consumer Price Index. The dataset was analyzed through scatterplots, regression models, and cross-correlation to evaluate the impact of official exchange rates and peso devaluation. Results showed sensitivity to both variables, but with time lags. However, the regression models did not provide reliable forecasts for price behavior. Two methods were proposed to estimate discount rates: one based on compound interest and another using logarithmic regression. The resulting rates were comparable to sovereign bonds and served as a foundation for constructing sensitivity scenarios under shifting economic conditions. The study concludes that the value of  standing timber is shaped not only by market dynamics but also by power relations embedded within the forestry supply chain. La región Chaqueña representa la principal reserva de bosques nativos del país. Este estudio analiza la evolución del valor económico de Schinopsis lorentzii (Griseb.) Engl. Entre 2003 y 2021 a partir de series temporales de precios considerando factores macroeconómicos, estructuras del mercado y escenarios de sensibilidad. Se extrapolaron a la región, fuentes oficiales de la provincia del Chaco. Los precios fueron ponderados según el destino de transformación, se convirtieron a dólares y ajustados por inflación en base al índice de precios de Estados Unidos. La serie se examinó mediante diagramas de dispersión, regresión y análisis de correlación cruzada evaluando la influencia de la cotización del dólar oficial y la devaluación del peso. Se demostró sensibilidad a ambas variables, aunque con rezagos temporales, no obstante, los modelos de regresión no mostraron resultados confiables al momento para la predicción de precios. Para el cálculo de las tasas de descuento, se propusieron dos métodos, uno basado en interés compuesto y otro en regresión logarítmica. Las tasas resultantes fueron comparables a bonos soberanos y se utilizaron para la construcción de escenarios de sensibilidad en contextos variables. El estudio concluye que el valor de la madera en pie no depende solo del mercado sino también de relaciones de poder dentro de la cadena forestal. Instituto Agrotécnico "Pedro M. Fuentes Godo" - Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias (UNNE) 2025-12-23 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion application/pdf https://revistas.unne.edu.ar/index.php/agr/article/view/9013 10.30972/agr.369013 Agrotecnia; Núm. 36 (2025); 1-9 2545-8906 0328-4077 spa https://revistas.unne.edu.ar/index.php/agr/article/view/9013/8691 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0
institution Universidad Nacional del Nordeste
institution_str I-48
repository_str R-154
container_title_str Revistas UNNE - Universidad Nacional del Noroeste (UNNE)
language Español
format Artículo revista
topic Price series
Standing timber
Quebracho colorado
Serie de precios
Madera en pie
Quebracho colorado
spellingShingle Price series
Standing timber
Quebracho colorado
Serie de precios
Madera en pie
Quebracho colorado
Michela, Julio F.
Kees, Sebastián M.
Economic analysis of the standing value of Schinopsis lorentzii (Griseb.) Engl. in the Chaco region, Argentine Republic, during the period 2003-2021
topic_facet Price series
Standing timber
Quebracho colorado
Serie de precios
Madera en pie
Quebracho colorado
author Michela, Julio F.
Kees, Sebastián M.
author_facet Michela, Julio F.
Kees, Sebastián M.
author_sort Michela, Julio F.
title Economic analysis of the standing value of Schinopsis lorentzii (Griseb.) Engl. in the Chaco region, Argentine Republic, during the period 2003-2021
title_short Economic analysis of the standing value of Schinopsis lorentzii (Griseb.) Engl. in the Chaco region, Argentine Republic, during the period 2003-2021
title_full Economic analysis of the standing value of Schinopsis lorentzii (Griseb.) Engl. in the Chaco region, Argentine Republic, during the period 2003-2021
title_fullStr Economic analysis of the standing value of Schinopsis lorentzii (Griseb.) Engl. in the Chaco region, Argentine Republic, during the period 2003-2021
title_full_unstemmed Economic analysis of the standing value of Schinopsis lorentzii (Griseb.) Engl. in the Chaco region, Argentine Republic, during the period 2003-2021
title_sort economic analysis of the standing value of schinopsis lorentzii (griseb.) engl. in the chaco region, argentine republic, during the period 2003-2021
description The Chaco region holds the country most extensive reserve of native forests. This study explores how the economic value of Schinopsis lorentzii (Griseb.) Engl. evolved between 2003 and 2021, using time series data on prices and incorporating macroeconomic conditions, market structures, and sensitivity scenarios. Official data from the province of Chaco was adapted to reflect regional conditions. Prices were weighted based on the intended industrial transformation, converted to US dollars, and adjusted for inflation using the U.S. Consumer Price Index. The dataset was analyzed through scatterplots, regression models, and cross-correlation to evaluate the impact of official exchange rates and peso devaluation. Results showed sensitivity to both variables, but with time lags. However, the regression models did not provide reliable forecasts for price behavior. Two methods were proposed to estimate discount rates: one based on compound interest and another using logarithmic regression. The resulting rates were comparable to sovereign bonds and served as a foundation for constructing sensitivity scenarios under shifting economic conditions. The study concludes that the value of  standing timber is shaped not only by market dynamics but also by power relations embedded within the forestry supply chain.
publisher Instituto Agrotécnico "Pedro M. Fuentes Godo" - Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias (UNNE)
publishDate 2025
url https://revistas.unne.edu.ar/index.php/agr/article/view/9013
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first_indexed 2026-01-17T05:00:41Z
last_indexed 2026-01-17T05:00:41Z
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