Dry and wet events in Mar Chiquita: Water Response and Climate Change

The aim of this study was to assess dry and wet periods in the Mar Chiquita district (Buenos Aires, Argentina) during the 1950-2023 period and under different climate change scenarios to identify the impacts on water coverage and evaluate the scenarios that the region might face in the Near, Medium,...

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Autores principales: Ferrelli, Ignacio Agustín, Bustos, María Luján, Ferrelli, Federico
Formato: Artículo revista
Lenguaje:Español
Publicado: Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales y Agrimensura 2024
Materias:
Climate variability
Climate change consequences
Coastal water bodies
Consecuencias del cambio climático
Cuerpos de agua costeros
Variabilidad climática
Acceso en línea:https://revistas.unne.edu.ar/index.php/fce/article/view/7791
Aporte de:
Revistas UNNE - Universidad Nacional del Noroeste (UNNE) de Universidad Nacional del Nordeste
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institution Universidad Nacional del Nordeste
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container_title_str Revistas UNNE - Universidad Nacional del Noroeste (UNNE)
language Español
format Artículo revista
topic Climate variability
Climate change consequences
Coastal water bodies
Consecuencias del cambio climático
Cuerpos de agua costeros
Variabilidad climática
spellingShingle Climate variability
Climate change consequences
Coastal water bodies
Consecuencias del cambio climático
Cuerpos de agua costeros
Variabilidad climática
Ferrelli, Ignacio Agustín
Bustos, María Luján
Ferrelli, Federico
Dry and wet events in Mar Chiquita: Water Response and Climate Change
topic_facet Climate variability
Climate change consequences
Coastal water bodies
Consecuencias del cambio climático
Cuerpos de agua costeros
Variabilidad climática
author Ferrelli, Ignacio Agustín
Bustos, María Luján
Ferrelli, Federico
author_facet Ferrelli, Ignacio Agustín
Bustos, María Luján
Ferrelli, Federico
author_sort Ferrelli, Ignacio Agustín
title Dry and wet events in Mar Chiquita: Water Response and Climate Change
title_short Dry and wet events in Mar Chiquita: Water Response and Climate Change
title_full Dry and wet events in Mar Chiquita: Water Response and Climate Change
title_fullStr Dry and wet events in Mar Chiquita: Water Response and Climate Change
title_full_unstemmed Dry and wet events in Mar Chiquita: Water Response and Climate Change
title_sort dry and wet events in mar chiquita: water response and climate change
description The aim of this study was to assess dry and wet periods in the Mar Chiquita district (Buenos Aires, Argentina) during the 1950-2023 period and under different climate change scenarios to identify the impacts on water coverage and evaluate the scenarios that the region might face in the Near, Medium, and Long Term. For this purpose, series of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were studied at different temporal scales: monthly, seasonal, and annual. With these analyses, extreme events characterized by their intensity, periodicity, frequency, and duration were identified. Subsequently, the impacts of these events were assessed, considering different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP4.5, SSP7.0, and SSP8.5). The results showed that until 2023, a total of 11 dry events and 14 wet events occurred. The intensity of extremely dry periods was higher (SPEI = -1.87) than the extremely wet ones (SPEI = 1.79). The frequency of the former was 11 years and their periodicity 6.5 years, while for the wet periods, it was 13.8 years and 5.2 years, respectively. The most prolonged and intense events occurred in 2008-2009 (23 months) and 2016-2017 (16 months). In future scenarios, severe and extreme dry events were identified, while wet events were mostly moderate and, to a lesser extent, severe. Significant changes were identified in water bodies, with surges towards the northeast affecting coastal cities. This information forms an essential database for designing management plans not only in coastal cities but also in areas with water bodies.
publisher Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales y Agrimensura
publishDate 2024
url https://revistas.unne.edu.ar/index.php/fce/article/view/7791
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spelling I48-R154-article-77912024-12-26T15:01:20Z Dry and wet events in Mar Chiquita: Water Response and Climate Change Evaluación de eventos secos y húmedos: la respuesta hídrica en el contexto del Cambio Climático (Mar Chiquita, Argentina) Ferrelli, Ignacio Agustín Bustos, María Luján Ferrelli, Federico Climate variability Climate change consequences Coastal water bodies Consecuencias del cambio climático Cuerpos de agua costeros Variabilidad climática The aim of this study was to assess dry and wet periods in the Mar Chiquita district (Buenos Aires, Argentina) during the 1950-2023 period and under different climate change scenarios to identify the impacts on water coverage and evaluate the scenarios that the region might face in the Near, Medium, and Long Term. For this purpose, series of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were studied at different temporal scales: monthly, seasonal, and annual. With these analyses, extreme events characterized by their intensity, periodicity, frequency, and duration were identified. Subsequently, the impacts of these events were assessed, considering different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP4.5, SSP7.0, and SSP8.5). The results showed that until 2023, a total of 11 dry events and 14 wet events occurred. The intensity of extremely dry periods was higher (SPEI = -1.87) than the extremely wet ones (SPEI = 1.79). The frequency of the former was 11 years and their periodicity 6.5 years, while for the wet periods, it was 13.8 years and 5.2 years, respectively. The most prolonged and intense events occurred in 2008-2009 (23 months) and 2016-2017 (16 months). In future scenarios, severe and extreme dry events were identified, while wet events were mostly moderate and, to a lesser extent, severe. Significant changes were identified in water bodies, with surges towards the northeast affecting coastal cities. This information forms an essential database for designing management plans not only in coastal cities but also in areas with water bodies. El objetivo de este estudio fue evaluar los períodos secos y húmedos en el partido de Mar Chiquita (Buenos Aires, Argentina) durante el período 1950-2023 y en distintos escenarios de Cambio Climático con la finalidad de identificar los impactos en la cobertura de agua y evaluar los escenarios a los que podría estar expuesta la región en el Futuro Cercano, Medio y Lejano. Para ello, se estudiaron series del Índice Estandarizado de Precipitación y Evapotranspiración (SPEI) a distintas escalas temporales: mensual, estacional y anual. Con estos análisis, se identificaron los eventos extremos caracterizados según su intensidad, periodicidad, frecuencia y duración. Posteriormente, se evaluaron los impactos de estos eventos, considerando distintas Trayectorias Socioeconómicas Compartidas (SSP4.5, SSP7.0 y SSP8.5). Los resultados permitieron contabilizar que hasta 2023, se generaron un total de 11 eventos secos y 14 húmedos. La intensidad de los períodos extremadamente secos fue mayor (SPEI = -1,87) que los extremadamente húmedos (SPEI = 1.79). La frecuencia de los primeros fue de 11 años y la periodicidad de 6,5 años, mientras que en los húmedos fue 13,8 años y 5,2 años, respectivamente. Los eventos más duraderos e intensos ocurrieron en 2008-2009 (23 meses) y 2016-2017 (16 meses). En los escenarios futuros se identificaron eventos secos severos y extremos, mientras que los húmedos fueron, en su mayoría, moderados y, en menor medida, severos. Se identificaron cambios significativos en los cuerpos de agua, con crecidas hacia el noreste que afectan a las ciudades costeras. Esta información conforma una base de datos indispensable para el diseño de planes de manejo no sólo en ciudades costeras, sino también en aquellos espacios con presencia de cuerpos de agua.     Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales y Agrimensura 2024-11-20 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion application/pdf https://revistas.unne.edu.ar/index.php/fce/article/view/7791 10.30972/fac.3427791 FACENA; Vol. 34 Núm. 2 (2024); 122-137 1851-507X 0325-4216 spa https://revistas.unne.edu.ar/index.php/fce/article/view/7791/7481

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