Mathematical analysis of the inter-human transmission dynamics of chagas disease in the absence of intervention
Chagas disease, caused by Trypanosoma cruzi infection, persists as one of the most important parasitoses in Latin America, due both to its high morbidity/mortality rate and to its difficult control. Originally, this disease was limited to rural areas, with triatomine insects and domestic animals as...
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todo:paper_97815361_v_n_p29_Fabrizio2023-10-03T16:43:51Z Mathematical analysis of the inter-human transmission dynamics of chagas disease in the absence of intervention Fabrizio, M.C. Schweigmann, N.J. Bartoloni, N.J. Chagas disease, caused by Trypanosoma cruzi infection, persists as one of the most important parasitoses in Latin America, due both to its high morbidity/mortality rate and to its difficult control. Originally, this disease was limited to rural areas, with triatomine insects and domestic animals as the main reservoirs. However, due to globalization, with the increasing amount of travel and immigration, it has spread to many countries where it was not endemic. This phenomenon has generated the so-called urban Chagas, which involves only the human population. Currently, it is a health problem in countries such as Canada, the United States, Australia, Japan, and more than a dozen European countries. In this work, we mathematically modeled the dynamics of T. cruzi infection in a city without the presence of triatomines. The model assumes the three clinical stages of the disease, i.e., acute, chronic indeterminate and chronic with determinate pathology, and considers only the transfusional and the congenital routes of transmission. The equilibrium points of the system were determined and their stability analyzed. Using the nextgeneration matrix method, we deduced expressions which allowed estimating the number of new infections generated for each primary case for each transmission route according to the stage of infection. We applied our findings in a city, assuming that it was initially free of infected individuals and that there is no possibility of cure, and performed a simulation to visualize the dynamics of the infection in the early years of an outbreak. The results obtained emphasize the epidemiological importance of the long and asymptomatic chronic indeterminate stage in the spread of the infection. The Appendix details the methodology used, to facilitate replication in different scenarios and with different parameter values, and to allow quantifying the impact of an epidemic outbreak. Given that the risk of infection is introduced by a wide group of persons from endemic areas (travelers, migrants, blood or organ recipients, pregnant women, newborns, adoptees, etc.), we concluded that it is necessary to improve the clinical and epidemiological knowledge of Chagas disease in non-endemic areas to establish adequate protocols for detection by appropriate screening strategies and the immediate implementation of the corresponding treatment. © 2017 Nova Science Publishers, Inc. All rights reserved. CHAP info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_97815361_v_n_p29_Fabrizio |
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Universidad de Buenos Aires |
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I-28 |
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Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) |
| description |
Chagas disease, caused by Trypanosoma cruzi infection, persists as one of the most important parasitoses in Latin America, due both to its high morbidity/mortality rate and to its difficult control. Originally, this disease was limited to rural areas, with triatomine insects and domestic animals as the main reservoirs. However, due to globalization, with the increasing amount of travel and immigration, it has spread to many countries where it was not endemic. This phenomenon has generated the so-called urban Chagas, which involves only the human population. Currently, it is a health problem in countries such as Canada, the United States, Australia, Japan, and more than a dozen European countries. In this work, we mathematically modeled the dynamics of T. cruzi infection in a city without the presence of triatomines. The model assumes the three clinical stages of the disease, i.e., acute, chronic indeterminate and chronic with determinate pathology, and considers only the transfusional and the congenital routes of transmission. The equilibrium points of the system were determined and their stability analyzed. Using the nextgeneration matrix method, we deduced expressions which allowed estimating the number of new infections generated for each primary case for each transmission route according to the stage of infection. We applied our findings in a city, assuming that it was initially free of infected individuals and that there is no possibility of cure, and performed a simulation to visualize the dynamics of the infection in the early years of an outbreak. The results obtained emphasize the epidemiological importance of the long and asymptomatic chronic indeterminate stage in the spread of the infection. The Appendix details the methodology used, to facilitate replication in different scenarios and with different parameter values, and to allow quantifying the impact of an epidemic outbreak. Given that the risk of infection is introduced by a wide group of persons from endemic areas (travelers, migrants, blood or organ recipients, pregnant women, newborns, adoptees, etc.), we concluded that it is necessary to improve the clinical and epidemiological knowledge of Chagas disease in non-endemic areas to establish adequate protocols for detection by appropriate screening strategies and the immediate implementation of the corresponding treatment. © 2017 Nova Science Publishers, Inc. All rights reserved. |
| format |
CHAP |
| author |
Fabrizio, M.C. Schweigmann, N.J. Bartoloni, N.J. |
| spellingShingle |
Fabrizio, M.C. Schweigmann, N.J. Bartoloni, N.J. Mathematical analysis of the inter-human transmission dynamics of chagas disease in the absence of intervention |
| author_facet |
Fabrizio, M.C. Schweigmann, N.J. Bartoloni, N.J. |
| author_sort |
Fabrizio, M.C. |
| title |
Mathematical analysis of the inter-human transmission dynamics of chagas disease in the absence of intervention |
| title_short |
Mathematical analysis of the inter-human transmission dynamics of chagas disease in the absence of intervention |
| title_full |
Mathematical analysis of the inter-human transmission dynamics of chagas disease in the absence of intervention |
| title_fullStr |
Mathematical analysis of the inter-human transmission dynamics of chagas disease in the absence of intervention |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Mathematical analysis of the inter-human transmission dynamics of chagas disease in the absence of intervention |
| title_sort |
mathematical analysis of the inter-human transmission dynamics of chagas disease in the absence of intervention |
| url |
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_97815361_v_n_p29_Fabrizio |
| work_keys_str_mv |
AT fabriziomc mathematicalanalysisoftheinterhumantransmissiondynamicsofchagasdiseaseintheabsenceofintervention AT schweigmannnj mathematicalanalysisoftheinterhumantransmissiondynamicsofchagasdiseaseintheabsenceofintervention AT bartoloninj mathematicalanalysisoftheinterhumantransmissiondynamicsofchagasdiseaseintheabsenceofintervention |
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