The ability of a multi-model seasonal forecasting ensemble to forecast the frequency of warm, cold and wet extremes
Dynamical models are now widely used to provide forecasts of above or below average seasonal mean temperatures and precipitation, with growing interest in their ability to forecast climate extremes on a seasonal time scale. This study assesses the skill of the ENSEMBLES multi-model ensemble to forec...
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| Acceso en línea: | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_22120947_v9_n_p68_Pepler |
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todo:paper_22120947_v9_n_p68_Pepler2023-10-03T16:40:32Z The ability of a multi-model seasonal forecasting ensemble to forecast the frequency of warm, cold and wet extremes Pepler, A.S. Díaz, L.B. Prodhomme, C. Doblas-Reyes, F.J. Kumar, A. Climate model Ensemble ENSO Extremes Seasonal forecasting climate modeling El Nino-Southern Oscillation ensemble forecasting precipitation (climatology) seasonal variation temperature profile Dynamical models are now widely used to provide forecasts of above or below average seasonal mean temperatures and precipitation, with growing interest in their ability to forecast climate extremes on a seasonal time scale. This study assesses the skill of the ENSEMBLES multi-model ensemble to forecast the 90th and 10th percentiles of both seasonal temperature and precipitation, using a number of metrics of 'extremeness'. Skill is generally similar or slightly lower to that for seasonal means, with skill strongly influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. As documented in previous studies, much of the skill in forecasting extremes can be related to skill in forecasting the seasonal mean value, with skill for extremes generally lower although still significant. Despite this, little relationship is found between the skill of forecasting the upper and lower tails of the distribution of daily values. © 2015 The Authors. JOUR info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_22120947_v9_n_p68_Pepler |
| institution |
Universidad de Buenos Aires |
| institution_str |
I-28 |
| repository_str |
R-134 |
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Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) |
| topic |
Climate model Ensemble ENSO Extremes Seasonal forecasting climate modeling El Nino-Southern Oscillation ensemble forecasting precipitation (climatology) seasonal variation temperature profile |
| spellingShingle |
Climate model Ensemble ENSO Extremes Seasonal forecasting climate modeling El Nino-Southern Oscillation ensemble forecasting precipitation (climatology) seasonal variation temperature profile Pepler, A.S. Díaz, L.B. Prodhomme, C. Doblas-Reyes, F.J. Kumar, A. The ability of a multi-model seasonal forecasting ensemble to forecast the frequency of warm, cold and wet extremes |
| topic_facet |
Climate model Ensemble ENSO Extremes Seasonal forecasting climate modeling El Nino-Southern Oscillation ensemble forecasting precipitation (climatology) seasonal variation temperature profile |
| description |
Dynamical models are now widely used to provide forecasts of above or below average seasonal mean temperatures and precipitation, with growing interest in their ability to forecast climate extremes on a seasonal time scale. This study assesses the skill of the ENSEMBLES multi-model ensemble to forecast the 90th and 10th percentiles of both seasonal temperature and precipitation, using a number of metrics of 'extremeness'. Skill is generally similar or slightly lower to that for seasonal means, with skill strongly influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. As documented in previous studies, much of the skill in forecasting extremes can be related to skill in forecasting the seasonal mean value, with skill for extremes generally lower although still significant. Despite this, little relationship is found between the skill of forecasting the upper and lower tails of the distribution of daily values. © 2015 The Authors. |
| format |
JOUR |
| author |
Pepler, A.S. Díaz, L.B. Prodhomme, C. Doblas-Reyes, F.J. Kumar, A. |
| author_facet |
Pepler, A.S. Díaz, L.B. Prodhomme, C. Doblas-Reyes, F.J. Kumar, A. |
| author_sort |
Pepler, A.S. |
| title |
The ability of a multi-model seasonal forecasting ensemble to forecast the frequency of warm, cold and wet extremes |
| title_short |
The ability of a multi-model seasonal forecasting ensemble to forecast the frequency of warm, cold and wet extremes |
| title_full |
The ability of a multi-model seasonal forecasting ensemble to forecast the frequency of warm, cold and wet extremes |
| title_fullStr |
The ability of a multi-model seasonal forecasting ensemble to forecast the frequency of warm, cold and wet extremes |
| title_full_unstemmed |
The ability of a multi-model seasonal forecasting ensemble to forecast the frequency of warm, cold and wet extremes |
| title_sort |
ability of a multi-model seasonal forecasting ensemble to forecast the frequency of warm, cold and wet extremes |
| url |
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_22120947_v9_n_p68_Pepler |
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