Twenty-first century projections of extreme precipitations in the Plata Basin

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Distributions of monthly rainfall averaged spatially over three regions of the La Plata Basin (LPB) were projected for 2011-2040 and 2071-2100 using outputs of four regional climate models (RCMs) nested in three different general circulation models, run with the SRES A1B emission scenario. Tuning of...

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Autores principales: Barros, V.R., Garavaglia, C.R., Doyle, M.E.
Formato: INPR
Lenguaje:English
Materias:
Climate change
floods
La Plata Basin
twenty-first century
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_15715124_v_n_p_Barros
Aporte de:
Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires
id todo:paper_15715124_v_n_p_Barros
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spelling todo:paper_15715124_v_n_p_Barros2023-10-03T16:27:18Z Twenty-first century projections of extreme precipitations in the Plata Basin Barros, V.R. Garavaglia, C.R. Doyle, M.E. Climate change floods La Plata Basin twenty-first century Distributions of monthly rainfall averaged spatially over three regions of the La Plata Basin (LPB) were projected for 2011-2040 and 2071-2100 using outputs of four regional climate models (RCMs) nested in three different general circulation models, run with the SRES A1B emission scenario. Tuning of simulations with observations was done at the control period 1981-1990. During the past 50 years, in part of LPB, there was a positive trend in annual precipitation. Two of the models indicate the maintenance of this trend over the northeast of Argentina and south of Brazil, while over the southernmost region of LPB, all models show increasing precipitation throughout the twenty-first century. Trends are less ambiguous for extreme precipitation, especially in the southernmost part of LPB, where huge and long-lasting floods take place over plains with small drainage. Months with extreme precipitation in LPB present a pronounced annual cycle with higher frequency from October to April. According to the RCM projections, this pattern would persist during the twenty-first century. Although, other factors cannot be discarded, the projected trends towards higher extreme monthly precipitation seem to be caused by an increase in the moisture convergence in the lower atmosphere over the east of LPB. © 2013 Copyright International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research. Fil:Barros, V.R. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Doyle, M.E. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. INPR English info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_15715124_v_n_p_Barros
institution Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str I-28
repository_str R-134
collection Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
language English
orig_language_str_mv English
topic Climate change
floods
La Plata Basin
twenty-first century
spellingShingle Climate change
floods
La Plata Basin
twenty-first century
Barros, V.R.
Garavaglia, C.R.
Doyle, M.E.
Twenty-first century projections of extreme precipitations in the Plata Basin
topic_facet Climate change
floods
La Plata Basin
twenty-first century
description Distributions of monthly rainfall averaged spatially over three regions of the La Plata Basin (LPB) were projected for 2011-2040 and 2071-2100 using outputs of four regional climate models (RCMs) nested in three different general circulation models, run with the SRES A1B emission scenario. Tuning of simulations with observations was done at the control period 1981-1990. During the past 50 years, in part of LPB, there was a positive trend in annual precipitation. Two of the models indicate the maintenance of this trend over the northeast of Argentina and south of Brazil, while over the southernmost region of LPB, all models show increasing precipitation throughout the twenty-first century. Trends are less ambiguous for extreme precipitation, especially in the southernmost part of LPB, where huge and long-lasting floods take place over plains with small drainage. Months with extreme precipitation in LPB present a pronounced annual cycle with higher frequency from October to April. According to the RCM projections, this pattern would persist during the twenty-first century. Although, other factors cannot be discarded, the projected trends towards higher extreme monthly precipitation seem to be caused by an increase in the moisture convergence in the lower atmosphere over the east of LPB. © 2013 Copyright International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research.
format INPR
author Barros, V.R.
Garavaglia, C.R.
Doyle, M.E.
author_facet Barros, V.R.
Garavaglia, C.R.
Doyle, M.E.
author_sort Barros, V.R.
title Twenty-first century projections of extreme precipitations in the Plata Basin
title_short Twenty-first century projections of extreme precipitations in the Plata Basin
title_full Twenty-first century projections of extreme precipitations in the Plata Basin
title_fullStr Twenty-first century projections of extreme precipitations in the Plata Basin
title_full_unstemmed Twenty-first century projections of extreme precipitations in the Plata Basin
title_sort twenty-first century projections of extreme precipitations in the plata basin
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_15715124_v_n_p_Barros
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AT garavagliacr twentyfirstcenturyprojectionsofextremeprecipitationsintheplatabasin
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