Projected precipitation changes in South America: A dynamical downscaling within CLARIS
Responses of precipitation seasonal means and extremes over South America in a downscaling of a climate change scenario are assessed with the Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model (RCA). The anthropogenic warming under AlB scenario influences more on the likelihood of occurrence of severe extreme...
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todo:paper_09412948_v19_n4_p347_Sorensson2023-10-03T15:48:58Z Projected precipitation changes in South America: A dynamical downscaling within CLARIS Sörensson, A.A. Menéndez, C.G. Ruscica, R. Alexander, P. Samuelsson, P. Willén, U. Amazon basin Amazonia Atmospheric model Climate change scenarios Down-scaling Dry seasons Dry spells Dynamical downscaling Extreme events Extreme precipitation Heavy precipitation La Plata basin Northeastern Brazil Precipitation change Seasonal mean Seasonal precipitations South America Spring precipitation Climate models Drought Climate change atmospheric modeling climate change conference proceeding downscaling flooding precipitation (climatology) risk assessment seasonal variation spring (season) weather forecasting winter Amazon Basin Bolivia Brazil La Plata Basin South America Responses of precipitation seasonal means and extremes over South America in a downscaling of a climate change scenario are assessed with the Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model (RCA). The anthropogenic warming under AlB scenario influences more on the likelihood of occurrence of severe extreme events like heavy precipitation and dry spells than on the mean seasonal precipitation. The risk of extreme precipitation increases in the La Plata Basin with a factor of 1.5-2.5 during all seasons and in the northwestern part of the continent with a factor 1.5-3 in summer, while it decreases in central and northeastern Brazil during winter and spring. The maximum amount of 5-days precipitation increases by up to 50 % in La Plata Basin, indicating risks of flooding. Over central Brazil and the Bolivian lowland, where present 5-days precipitation is higher, the increases are similar in magnitude and could cause less impacts. In southern Amazonia, northeastern Brazil and the Amazon basin, the maximum number of consecutive dry days increases and mean winter and spring precipitation decreases, indicating a longer dry season. In the La Plata Basin, there is no clear pattern of change for the dry spell duration. © Gebrüder Borntraeger, Stuttgart 2010. Fil:Sörensson, A.A. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Menéndez, C.G. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Ruscica, R. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Alexander, P. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. JOUR info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_09412948_v19_n4_p347_Sorensson |
| institution |
Universidad de Buenos Aires |
| institution_str |
I-28 |
| repository_str |
R-134 |
| collection |
Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) |
| topic |
Amazon basin Amazonia Atmospheric model Climate change scenarios Down-scaling Dry seasons Dry spells Dynamical downscaling Extreme events Extreme precipitation Heavy precipitation La Plata basin Northeastern Brazil Precipitation change Seasonal mean Seasonal precipitations South America Spring precipitation Climate models Drought Climate change atmospheric modeling climate change conference proceeding downscaling flooding precipitation (climatology) risk assessment seasonal variation spring (season) weather forecasting winter Amazon Basin Bolivia Brazil La Plata Basin South America |
| spellingShingle |
Amazon basin Amazonia Atmospheric model Climate change scenarios Down-scaling Dry seasons Dry spells Dynamical downscaling Extreme events Extreme precipitation Heavy precipitation La Plata basin Northeastern Brazil Precipitation change Seasonal mean Seasonal precipitations South America Spring precipitation Climate models Drought Climate change atmospheric modeling climate change conference proceeding downscaling flooding precipitation (climatology) risk assessment seasonal variation spring (season) weather forecasting winter Amazon Basin Bolivia Brazil La Plata Basin South America Sörensson, A.A. Menéndez, C.G. Ruscica, R. Alexander, P. Samuelsson, P. Willén, U. Projected precipitation changes in South America: A dynamical downscaling within CLARIS |
| topic_facet |
Amazon basin Amazonia Atmospheric model Climate change scenarios Down-scaling Dry seasons Dry spells Dynamical downscaling Extreme events Extreme precipitation Heavy precipitation La Plata basin Northeastern Brazil Precipitation change Seasonal mean Seasonal precipitations South America Spring precipitation Climate models Drought Climate change atmospheric modeling climate change conference proceeding downscaling flooding precipitation (climatology) risk assessment seasonal variation spring (season) weather forecasting winter Amazon Basin Bolivia Brazil La Plata Basin South America |
| description |
Responses of precipitation seasonal means and extremes over South America in a downscaling of a climate change scenario are assessed with the Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model (RCA). The anthropogenic warming under AlB scenario influences more on the likelihood of occurrence of severe extreme events like heavy precipitation and dry spells than on the mean seasonal precipitation. The risk of extreme precipitation increases in the La Plata Basin with a factor of 1.5-2.5 during all seasons and in the northwestern part of the continent with a factor 1.5-3 in summer, while it decreases in central and northeastern Brazil during winter and spring. The maximum amount of 5-days precipitation increases by up to 50 % in La Plata Basin, indicating risks of flooding. Over central Brazil and the Bolivian lowland, where present 5-days precipitation is higher, the increases are similar in magnitude and could cause less impacts. In southern Amazonia, northeastern Brazil and the Amazon basin, the maximum number of consecutive dry days increases and mean winter and spring precipitation decreases, indicating a longer dry season. In the La Plata Basin, there is no clear pattern of change for the dry spell duration. © Gebrüder Borntraeger, Stuttgart 2010. |
| format |
JOUR |
| author |
Sörensson, A.A. Menéndez, C.G. Ruscica, R. Alexander, P. Samuelsson, P. Willén, U. |
| author_facet |
Sörensson, A.A. Menéndez, C.G. Ruscica, R. Alexander, P. Samuelsson, P. Willén, U. |
| author_sort |
Sörensson, A.A. |
| title |
Projected precipitation changes in South America: A dynamical downscaling within CLARIS |
| title_short |
Projected precipitation changes in South America: A dynamical downscaling within CLARIS |
| title_full |
Projected precipitation changes in South America: A dynamical downscaling within CLARIS |
| title_fullStr |
Projected precipitation changes in South America: A dynamical downscaling within CLARIS |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Projected precipitation changes in South America: A dynamical downscaling within CLARIS |
| title_sort |
projected precipitation changes in south america: a dynamical downscaling within claris |
| url |
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_09412948_v19_n4_p347_Sorensson |
| work_keys_str_mv |
AT sorenssonaa projectedprecipitationchangesinsouthamericaadynamicaldownscalingwithinclaris AT menendezcg projectedprecipitationchangesinsouthamericaadynamicaldownscalingwithinclaris AT ruscicar projectedprecipitationchangesinsouthamericaadynamicaldownscalingwithinclaris AT alexanderp projectedprecipitationchangesinsouthamericaadynamicaldownscalingwithinclaris AT samuelssonp projectedprecipitationchangesinsouthamericaadynamicaldownscalingwithinclaris AT willenu projectedprecipitationchangesinsouthamericaadynamicaldownscalingwithinclaris |
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1807322410019454976 |