Changes in temperature extremes for 21st century scenarios over South America derived from a multi-model ensemble of regional climate models

This study examines a set of 4 temperature extreme indices (cold and warm nighttime and daytime indices) from an ensemble of 4 regional climate models (RCMs) for present and future periods in South America (SA). These models were integrated in the framework of the CLARIS-LPB 7FP-EU-project. We analy...

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Autores principales: López-Franca, N., Zaninelli, P.G., Carril, A.F., Menéndez, C.G., Sánchez, E.
Formato: JOUR
Materias:
Climate change
Multi-model ensemble
Regional climate models
South America
Temperature extremes
advection
climate change
climate modeling
cloud cover
cold air
ensemble forecasting
extreme event
radiative forcing
regional climate
temperature anomaly
twenty first century
La Plata Basin
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_0936577X_v68_n2-3_p151_LopezFranca
Aporte de:
Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires
id todo:paper_0936577X_v68_n2-3_p151_LopezFranca
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spelling todo:paper_0936577X_v68_n2-3_p151_LopezFranca2023-10-03T15:48:40Z Changes in temperature extremes for 21st century scenarios over South America derived from a multi-model ensemble of regional climate models López-Franca, N. Zaninelli, P.G. Carril, A.F. Menéndez, C.G. Sánchez, E. Climate change Multi-model ensemble Regional climate models South America Temperature extremes advection climate change climate modeling cloud cover cold air ensemble forecasting extreme event radiative forcing regional climate temperature anomaly twenty first century La Plata Basin This study examines a set of 4 temperature extreme indices (cold and warm nighttime and daytime indices) from an ensemble of 4 regional climate models (RCMs) for present and future periods in South America (SA). These models were integrated in the framework of the CLARIS-LPB 7FP-EU-project. We analyze the capability of RCMs to reproduce such indices and explore changes projected by the models under the scenario A1B for the end of the 21st century. The work also analyzes the role of cloudiness, surface radiative forcing and meridional wind components on temperature extremes. Future projections show that, during the austral summer, the increase in the frequency of warm nights is larger than that projected for warm days. This result agrees with the projections for the seasonal mean fields of minimum temperature (TN) versus the maximum temperature (TX) over most of SA. The analysis for the La Plata Basin suggests that this behavior is consistent with the cooling effect of cloud cover affecting TX, while TN is affected by nighttime greenhouse warming. The relationship between cloudiness and TN and TX anomalies shows a nonlinear behavior for near full cloud cover conditions. Although TX and TN anomalies are sensitive to strong cold air advection, TX is more sensitive than TN. Thus, RCMs are useful tools to analyze both the spatial pattern of temperature extremes and the climatic factors involved. © Inter-Research 2016. Fil:Zaninelli, P.G. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Carril, A.F. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Menéndez, C.G. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. JOUR info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_0936577X_v68_n2-3_p151_LopezFranca
institution Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str I-28
repository_str R-134
collection Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic Climate change
Multi-model ensemble
Regional climate models
South America
Temperature extremes
advection
climate change
climate modeling
cloud cover
cold air
ensemble forecasting
extreme event
radiative forcing
regional climate
temperature anomaly
twenty first century
La Plata Basin
spellingShingle Climate change
Multi-model ensemble
Regional climate models
South America
Temperature extremes
advection
climate change
climate modeling
cloud cover
cold air
ensemble forecasting
extreme event
radiative forcing
regional climate
temperature anomaly
twenty first century
La Plata Basin
López-Franca, N.
Zaninelli, P.G.
Carril, A.F.
Menéndez, C.G.
Sánchez, E.
Changes in temperature extremes for 21st century scenarios over South America derived from a multi-model ensemble of regional climate models
topic_facet Climate change
Multi-model ensemble
Regional climate models
South America
Temperature extremes
advection
climate change
climate modeling
cloud cover
cold air
ensemble forecasting
extreme event
radiative forcing
regional climate
temperature anomaly
twenty first century
La Plata Basin
description This study examines a set of 4 temperature extreme indices (cold and warm nighttime and daytime indices) from an ensemble of 4 regional climate models (RCMs) for present and future periods in South America (SA). These models were integrated in the framework of the CLARIS-LPB 7FP-EU-project. We analyze the capability of RCMs to reproduce such indices and explore changes projected by the models under the scenario A1B for the end of the 21st century. The work also analyzes the role of cloudiness, surface radiative forcing and meridional wind components on temperature extremes. Future projections show that, during the austral summer, the increase in the frequency of warm nights is larger than that projected for warm days. This result agrees with the projections for the seasonal mean fields of minimum temperature (TN) versus the maximum temperature (TX) over most of SA. The analysis for the La Plata Basin suggests that this behavior is consistent with the cooling effect of cloud cover affecting TX, while TN is affected by nighttime greenhouse warming. The relationship between cloudiness and TN and TX anomalies shows a nonlinear behavior for near full cloud cover conditions. Although TX and TN anomalies are sensitive to strong cold air advection, TX is more sensitive than TN. Thus, RCMs are useful tools to analyze both the spatial pattern of temperature extremes and the climatic factors involved. © Inter-Research 2016.
format JOUR
author López-Franca, N.
Zaninelli, P.G.
Carril, A.F.
Menéndez, C.G.
Sánchez, E.
author_facet López-Franca, N.
Zaninelli, P.G.
Carril, A.F.
Menéndez, C.G.
Sánchez, E.
author_sort López-Franca, N.
title Changes in temperature extremes for 21st century scenarios over South America derived from a multi-model ensemble of regional climate models
title_short Changes in temperature extremes for 21st century scenarios over South America derived from a multi-model ensemble of regional climate models
title_full Changes in temperature extremes for 21st century scenarios over South America derived from a multi-model ensemble of regional climate models
title_fullStr Changes in temperature extremes for 21st century scenarios over South America derived from a multi-model ensemble of regional climate models
title_full_unstemmed Changes in temperature extremes for 21st century scenarios over South America derived from a multi-model ensemble of regional climate models
title_sort changes in temperature extremes for 21st century scenarios over south america derived from a multi-model ensemble of regional climate models
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_0936577X_v68_n2-3_p151_LopezFranca
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