Hyperinflation in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua revisited
The aim of the present work is to address the description of hyperinflation regimens in economy. The spirals of hyperinflation developed in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua are revisited. This new analysis of data indicates that the episodes occurred in Brazil and Nicaragua can be understood within the...
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todo:paper_03784371_v465_n_p1_Szybisz2023-10-03T15:33:03Z Hyperinflation in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua revisited Szybisz, M.A. Szybisz, L. Critical exponents Economics, econophysics Interdisciplinary applications of physics Singularity theory Social and economic systems Accidents Nonlinear feedback Analysis of data Consumer price index Critical exponent Econophysicss Finite time singularity Linear feedback Singularity theory Social and economic systems Economics The aim of the present work is to address the description of hyperinflation regimens in economy. The spirals of hyperinflation developed in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua are revisited. This new analysis of data indicates that the episodes occurred in Brazil and Nicaragua can be understood within the frame of the model available in the literature, which is based on a nonlinear feedback (NLF) characterized by an exponent β>0. In the NLF model the accumulated consumer price index carries a finite time singularity of the type 1/(tc−t)(1−β)/β determining a critical time tc at which the economy would crash. It is shown that in the case of Brazil the entire episode cannot be described with a unique set of parameters because the time series was strongly affected by a change of policy. This fact gives support to the “so called” Lucas critique, who stated that model's parameters usually change once policy changes. On the other hand, such a model is not able to provide any tc in the case of the weaker hyperinflation occurred in Israel. It is shown that in this case the fit of data yields β→0. This limit leads to the linear feedback formulation which does not predict any tc. An extension for the NLF model is suggested. © 2016 Elsevier B.V. Fil:Szybisz, L. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. JOUR info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_03784371_v465_n_p1_Szybisz |
| institution |
Universidad de Buenos Aires |
| institution_str |
I-28 |
| repository_str |
R-134 |
| collection |
Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) |
| topic |
Critical exponents Economics, econophysics Interdisciplinary applications of physics Singularity theory Social and economic systems Accidents Nonlinear feedback Analysis of data Consumer price index Critical exponent Econophysicss Finite time singularity Linear feedback Singularity theory Social and economic systems Economics |
| spellingShingle |
Critical exponents Economics, econophysics Interdisciplinary applications of physics Singularity theory Social and economic systems Accidents Nonlinear feedback Analysis of data Consumer price index Critical exponent Econophysicss Finite time singularity Linear feedback Singularity theory Social and economic systems Economics Szybisz, M.A. Szybisz, L. Hyperinflation in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua revisited |
| topic_facet |
Critical exponents Economics, econophysics Interdisciplinary applications of physics Singularity theory Social and economic systems Accidents Nonlinear feedback Analysis of data Consumer price index Critical exponent Econophysicss Finite time singularity Linear feedback Singularity theory Social and economic systems Economics |
| description |
The aim of the present work is to address the description of hyperinflation regimens in economy. The spirals of hyperinflation developed in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua are revisited. This new analysis of data indicates that the episodes occurred in Brazil and Nicaragua can be understood within the frame of the model available in the literature, which is based on a nonlinear feedback (NLF) characterized by an exponent β>0. In the NLF model the accumulated consumer price index carries a finite time singularity of the type 1/(tc−t)(1−β)/β determining a critical time tc at which the economy would crash. It is shown that in the case of Brazil the entire episode cannot be described with a unique set of parameters because the time series was strongly affected by a change of policy. This fact gives support to the “so called” Lucas critique, who stated that model's parameters usually change once policy changes. On the other hand, such a model is not able to provide any tc in the case of the weaker hyperinflation occurred in Israel. It is shown that in this case the fit of data yields β→0. This limit leads to the linear feedback formulation which does not predict any tc. An extension for the NLF model is suggested. © 2016 Elsevier B.V. |
| format |
JOUR |
| author |
Szybisz, M.A. Szybisz, L. |
| author_facet |
Szybisz, M.A. Szybisz, L. |
| author_sort |
Szybisz, M.A. |
| title |
Hyperinflation in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua revisited |
| title_short |
Hyperinflation in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua revisited |
| title_full |
Hyperinflation in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua revisited |
| title_fullStr |
Hyperinflation in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua revisited |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Hyperinflation in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua revisited |
| title_sort |
hyperinflation in brazil, israel, and nicaragua revisited |
| url |
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_03784371_v465_n_p1_Szybisz |
| work_keys_str_mv |
AT szybiszma hyperinflationinbrazilisraelandnicaraguarevisited AT szybiszl hyperinflationinbrazilisraelandnicaraguarevisited |
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1782023497455763456 |