Creating regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for the 2020's and 2050's using the pattern scaling technique: Validity and limitations

Dynamical downscaling of global climate simulations is the most adequate tool to generate regional projections of climate change. This technique involves at least a present climate simulation and a simulation of a future scenario, usually at the end of the twenty first century. However, regional pro...

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Autores principales: Cabré, M.F., Solman, S.A., Nuñez, M.N.
Formato: JOUR
Materias:
Climate condition
Climate simulation
Dynamical downscaling
Emission scenario
Global climate simulations
Global-mean temperature
Mean temperature
Precipitation change
Regional climate changes
Regional model
Seasonal changes
South America
Climate models
Estimation
Scalability
Climate change
climate change
downscaling
precipitation (climatology)
regional climate
seasonal variation
simulation
temperature effect
twenty first century
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_01650009_v98_n3_p449_Cabre
Aporte de:
Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires
id todo:paper_01650009_v98_n3_p449_Cabre
record_format dspace
spelling todo:paper_01650009_v98_n3_p449_Cabre2023-10-03T15:02:27Z Creating regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for the 2020's and 2050's using the pattern scaling technique: Validity and limitations Cabré, M.F. Solman, S.A. Nuñez, M.N. Climate condition Climate simulation Dynamical downscaling Emission scenario Global climate simulations Global-mean temperature Mean temperature Precipitation change Regional climate changes Regional model Seasonal changes South America Climate models Estimation Scalability Climate change climate change downscaling precipitation (climatology) regional climate seasonal variation simulation temperature effect twenty first century South America Dynamical downscaling of global climate simulations is the most adequate tool to generate regional projections of climate change. This technique involves at least a present climate simulation and a simulation of a future scenario, usually at the end of the twenty first century. However, regional projections for a variety of scenarios and periods, the 2020s or the 2050s, are often required by the impact community. The pattern scaling technique is used to estimate information on climate change for periods and scenarios not simulated by the regional model. We based our study on regional simulations performed over southern South America for present climate conditions and two emission scenarios at the end of the twenty first century. We used the pattern scaling technique to estimate mean seasonal changes of temperature and precipitation for the 2020s and the 2050s. The validity of the scalability assumptions underlying the pattern scaling technique for estimating near future regional climate change scenarios over southern South America is assessed. The results show that the pattern scaling works well for estimating mean temperature changes for which the regional changes are linearly related to the global mean temperature changes. For precipitation changes, the validity of the scalability assumption is weaker. The errors of estimating precipitation changes are comparable to those inherent to the regional model and to the projected changes themselves. © Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2009. Fil:Cabré, M.F. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Solman, S.A. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Nuñez, M.N. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. JOUR info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_01650009_v98_n3_p449_Cabre
institution Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str I-28
repository_str R-134
collection Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic Climate condition
Climate simulation
Dynamical downscaling
Emission scenario
Global climate simulations
Global-mean temperature
Mean temperature
Precipitation change
Regional climate changes
Regional model
Seasonal changes
South America
Climate models
Estimation
Scalability
Climate change
climate change
downscaling
precipitation (climatology)
regional climate
seasonal variation
simulation
temperature effect
twenty first century
South America
spellingShingle Climate condition
Climate simulation
Dynamical downscaling
Emission scenario
Global climate simulations
Global-mean temperature
Mean temperature
Precipitation change
Regional climate changes
Regional model
Seasonal changes
South America
Climate models
Estimation
Scalability
Climate change
climate change
downscaling
precipitation (climatology)
regional climate
seasonal variation
simulation
temperature effect
twenty first century
South America
Cabré, M.F.
Solman, S.A.
Nuñez, M.N.
Creating regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for the 2020's and 2050's using the pattern scaling technique: Validity and limitations
topic_facet Climate condition
Climate simulation
Dynamical downscaling
Emission scenario
Global climate simulations
Global-mean temperature
Mean temperature
Precipitation change
Regional climate changes
Regional model
Seasonal changes
South America
Climate models
Estimation
Scalability
Climate change
climate change
downscaling
precipitation (climatology)
regional climate
seasonal variation
simulation
temperature effect
twenty first century
South America
description Dynamical downscaling of global climate simulations is the most adequate tool to generate regional projections of climate change. This technique involves at least a present climate simulation and a simulation of a future scenario, usually at the end of the twenty first century. However, regional projections for a variety of scenarios and periods, the 2020s or the 2050s, are often required by the impact community. The pattern scaling technique is used to estimate information on climate change for periods and scenarios not simulated by the regional model. We based our study on regional simulations performed over southern South America for present climate conditions and two emission scenarios at the end of the twenty first century. We used the pattern scaling technique to estimate mean seasonal changes of temperature and precipitation for the 2020s and the 2050s. The validity of the scalability assumptions underlying the pattern scaling technique for estimating near future regional climate change scenarios over southern South America is assessed. The results show that the pattern scaling works well for estimating mean temperature changes for which the regional changes are linearly related to the global mean temperature changes. For precipitation changes, the validity of the scalability assumption is weaker. The errors of estimating precipitation changes are comparable to those inherent to the regional model and to the projected changes themselves. © Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2009.
format JOUR
author Cabré, M.F.
Solman, S.A.
Nuñez, M.N.
author_facet Cabré, M.F.
Solman, S.A.
Nuñez, M.N.
author_sort Cabré, M.F.
title Creating regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for the 2020's and 2050's using the pattern scaling technique: Validity and limitations
title_short Creating regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for the 2020's and 2050's using the pattern scaling technique: Validity and limitations
title_full Creating regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for the 2020's and 2050's using the pattern scaling technique: Validity and limitations
title_fullStr Creating regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for the 2020's and 2050's using the pattern scaling technique: Validity and limitations
title_full_unstemmed Creating regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for the 2020's and 2050's using the pattern scaling technique: Validity and limitations
title_sort creating regional climate change scenarios over southern south america for the 2020's and 2050's using the pattern scaling technique: validity and limitations
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_01650009_v98_n3_p449_Cabre
work_keys_str_mv AT cabremf creatingregionalclimatechangescenariosoversouthernsouthamericaforthe2020sand2050susingthepatternscalingtechniquevalidityandlimitations
AT solmansa creatingregionalclimatechangescenariosoversouthernsouthamericaforthe2020sand2050susingthepatternscalingtechniquevalidityandlimitations
AT nunezmn creatingregionalclimatechangescenariosoversouthernsouthamericaforthe2020sand2050susingthepatternscalingtechniquevalidityandlimitations
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