Modeling dengue outbreaks

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We introduce a dengue model (SEIR) where the human individuals are treated on an individual basis (IBM) while the mosquito population, produced by an independent model, is treated by compartments (SEI). We study the spread of epidemics by the sole action of the mosquito. Exponential, deterministic a...

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Autores principales:	Otero, M., Barmak, D.H., Dorso, C.O., Solari, H.G., Natiello, M.A.
Formato:	JOUR
Materias:	Compartmental model Dengue Epidemiology Individual based model Stochastic IBM Models Independent model Temperate climate Tropical climates Climatology Viruses Stochastic models dengue fever epidemiology numerical model tropical meteorology Aedes aegypti article breeding compartment model computer simulation dengue Dengue virus disease model disease transmission egg laying epidemic evolution human incubation time individual based model mosquito nonhuman probability temperature weather Aedes Animals Climate Computer Simulation Dengue Virus Disease Outbreaks Humans Insect Vectors Models, Biological Stochastic Processes
Acceso en línea:	http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_00255564_v232_n2_p87_Otero
Aporte de:	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires

id	todo:paper_00255564_v232_n2_p87_Otero
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spelling	todo:paper_00255564_v232_n2_p87_Otero2023-10-03T14:36:07Z Modeling dengue outbreaks Otero, M. Barmak, D.H. Dorso, C.O. Solari, H.G. Natiello, M.A. Compartmental model Dengue Epidemiology Individual based model Stochastic Compartmental model Dengue IBM Models Independent model Individual based model Stochastic Temperate climate Tropical climates Climatology Epidemiology Viruses Stochastic models dengue fever epidemiology numerical model tropical meteorology Aedes aegypti article breeding compartment model computer simulation dengue Dengue virus disease model disease transmission egg laying epidemic evolution human incubation time individual based model mosquito nonhuman probability temperature weather Aedes Animals Climate Computer Simulation Dengue Dengue Virus Disease Outbreaks Humans Insect Vectors Models, Biological Stochastic Processes We introduce a dengue model (SEIR) where the human individuals are treated on an individual basis (IBM) while the mosquito population, produced by an independent model, is treated by compartments (SEI). We study the spread of epidemics by the sole action of the mosquito. Exponential, deterministic and experimental distributions for the (human) exposed period are considered in two weather scenarios, one corresponding to temperate climate and the other to tropical climate. Virus circulation, final epidemic size and duration of outbreaks are considered showing that the results present little sensitivity to the statistics followed by the exposed period provided the median of the distributions are in coincidence. Only the time between an introduced (imported) case and the appearance of the first symptomatic secondary case is sensitive to this distribution. We finally show that the IBM model introduced is precisely a realization of a compartmental model, and that at least in this case, the choice between compartmental models or IBM is only a matter of convenience. © 2011 Elsevier Inc. Fil:Otero, M. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Dorso, C.O. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Solari, H.G. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Natiello, M.A. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. JOUR info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_00255564_v232_n2_p87_Otero
institution	Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str	I-28
repository_str	R-134
collection	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic	Compartmental model Dengue Epidemiology Individual based model Stochastic Compartmental model Dengue IBM Models Independent model Individual based model Stochastic Temperate climate Tropical climates Climatology Epidemiology Viruses Stochastic models dengue fever epidemiology numerical model tropical meteorology Aedes aegypti article breeding compartment model computer simulation dengue Dengue virus disease model disease transmission egg laying epidemic evolution human incubation time individual based model mosquito nonhuman probability temperature weather Aedes Animals Climate Computer Simulation Dengue Dengue Virus Disease Outbreaks Humans Insect Vectors Models, Biological Stochastic Processes
spellingShingle	Compartmental model Dengue Epidemiology Individual based model Stochastic Compartmental model Dengue IBM Models Independent model Individual based model Stochastic Temperate climate Tropical climates Climatology Epidemiology Viruses Stochastic models dengue fever epidemiology numerical model tropical meteorology Aedes aegypti article breeding compartment model computer simulation dengue Dengue virus disease model disease transmission egg laying epidemic evolution human incubation time individual based model mosquito nonhuman probability temperature weather Aedes Animals Climate Computer Simulation Dengue Dengue Virus Disease Outbreaks Humans Insect Vectors Models, Biological Stochastic Processes Otero, M. Barmak, D.H. Dorso, C.O. Solari, H.G. Natiello, M.A. Modeling dengue outbreaks
topic_facet	Compartmental model Dengue Epidemiology Individual based model Stochastic Compartmental model Dengue IBM Models Independent model Individual based model Stochastic Temperate climate Tropical climates Climatology Epidemiology Viruses Stochastic models dengue fever epidemiology numerical model tropical meteorology Aedes aegypti article breeding compartment model computer simulation dengue Dengue virus disease model disease transmission egg laying epidemic evolution human incubation time individual based model mosquito nonhuman probability temperature weather Aedes Animals Climate Computer Simulation Dengue Dengue Virus Disease Outbreaks Humans Insect Vectors Models, Biological Stochastic Processes
description	We introduce a dengue model (SEIR) where the human individuals are treated on an individual basis (IBM) while the mosquito population, produced by an independent model, is treated by compartments (SEI). We study the spread of epidemics by the sole action of the mosquito. Exponential, deterministic and experimental distributions for the (human) exposed period are considered in two weather scenarios, one corresponding to temperate climate and the other to tropical climate. Virus circulation, final epidemic size and duration of outbreaks are considered showing that the results present little sensitivity to the statistics followed by the exposed period provided the median of the distributions are in coincidence. Only the time between an introduced (imported) case and the appearance of the first symptomatic secondary case is sensitive to this distribution. We finally show that the IBM model introduced is precisely a realization of a compartmental model, and that at least in this case, the choice between compartmental models or IBM is only a matter of convenience. © 2011 Elsevier Inc.
format	JOUR
author	Otero, M. Barmak, D.H. Dorso, C.O. Solari, H.G. Natiello, M.A.
author_facet	Otero, M. Barmak, D.H. Dorso, C.O. Solari, H.G. Natiello, M.A.
author_sort	Otero, M.
title	Modeling dengue outbreaks
title_short	Modeling dengue outbreaks
title_full	Modeling dengue outbreaks
title_fullStr	Modeling dengue outbreaks
title_full_unstemmed	Modeling dengue outbreaks
title_sort	modeling dengue outbreaks
url	http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_00255564_v232_n2_p87_Otero
work_keys_str_mv	AT oterom modelingdengueoutbreaks AT barmakdh modelingdengueoutbreaks AT dorsoco modelingdengueoutbreaks AT solarihg modelingdengueoutbreaks AT natielloma modelingdengueoutbreaks
_version_	1807323462266519552

Modeling dengue outbreaks

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