Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito
We present a stochastic dynamical model for the transmission of dengue that takes into account seasonal and spatial dynamics of the vector Aedes aegypti. It describes disease dynamics triggered by the arrival of infected people in a city. We show that the probability of an epidemic outbreak depends...
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todo:paper_00255564_v223_n1_p32_Otero2023-10-03T14:36:07Z Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito Otero, M. Solari, H.G. Aedes aegypti Dengue Eco-epidemiology Stochastic models Aedes aegypti Climatic variation Dengue Disease dynamics Disease transmission Eco-epidemiology Epidemiological models Low probability Seasonal variation Spatial dynamics Stochastic dynamical model Susceptible population Epidemiology Probability distributions Risk perception Stochastic systems Stochastic models arrival date breeding site climate variation dengue fever disease transmission disease vector epidemic epidemiology health risk mosquito numerical model population distribution probability seasonal variation stochasticity Aedes aegypti Arbovirus article breeding climate change dengue disease carrier disease transmission epidemic hidden Markov model human nonhuman population density population dispersal probability risk assessment seasonal population dynamics seasonal variation species extinction stochastic model temperature dependence yellow fever Aedes Animals Argentina Dengue Disease Outbreaks Humans Insect Vectors Models, Biological Models, Statistical Seasons Stochastic Processes Urban Population Aedes aegypti We present a stochastic dynamical model for the transmission of dengue that takes into account seasonal and spatial dynamics of the vector Aedes aegypti. It describes disease dynamics triggered by the arrival of infected people in a city. We show that the probability of an epidemic outbreak depends on seasonal variation in temperature and on the availability of breeding sites. We also show that the arrival date of an infected human in a susceptible population dramatically affects the distribution of the final size of epidemics and that early outbreaks have a low probability. However, early outbreaks are likely to produce large epidemics because they have a longer time to evolve before the winter extinction of vectors. Our model could be used to estimate the risk and final size of epidemic outbreaks in regions with seasonal climatic variations. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Fil:Otero, M. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Solari, H.G. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. JOUR info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_00255564_v223_n1_p32_Otero |
institution |
Universidad de Buenos Aires |
institution_str |
I-28 |
repository_str |
R-134 |
collection |
Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) |
topic |
Aedes aegypti Dengue Eco-epidemiology Stochastic models Aedes aegypti Climatic variation Dengue Disease dynamics Disease transmission Eco-epidemiology Epidemiological models Low probability Seasonal variation Spatial dynamics Stochastic dynamical model Susceptible population Epidemiology Probability distributions Risk perception Stochastic systems Stochastic models arrival date breeding site climate variation dengue fever disease transmission disease vector epidemic epidemiology health risk mosquito numerical model population distribution probability seasonal variation stochasticity Aedes aegypti Arbovirus article breeding climate change dengue disease carrier disease transmission epidemic hidden Markov model human nonhuman population density population dispersal probability risk assessment seasonal population dynamics seasonal variation species extinction stochastic model temperature dependence yellow fever Aedes Animals Argentina Dengue Disease Outbreaks Humans Insect Vectors Models, Biological Models, Statistical Seasons Stochastic Processes Urban Population Aedes aegypti |
spellingShingle |
Aedes aegypti Dengue Eco-epidemiology Stochastic models Aedes aegypti Climatic variation Dengue Disease dynamics Disease transmission Eco-epidemiology Epidemiological models Low probability Seasonal variation Spatial dynamics Stochastic dynamical model Susceptible population Epidemiology Probability distributions Risk perception Stochastic systems Stochastic models arrival date breeding site climate variation dengue fever disease transmission disease vector epidemic epidemiology health risk mosquito numerical model population distribution probability seasonal variation stochasticity Aedes aegypti Arbovirus article breeding climate change dengue disease carrier disease transmission epidemic hidden Markov model human nonhuman population density population dispersal probability risk assessment seasonal population dynamics seasonal variation species extinction stochastic model temperature dependence yellow fever Aedes Animals Argentina Dengue Disease Outbreaks Humans Insect Vectors Models, Biological Models, Statistical Seasons Stochastic Processes Urban Population Aedes aegypti Otero, M. Solari, H.G. Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito |
topic_facet |
Aedes aegypti Dengue Eco-epidemiology Stochastic models Aedes aegypti Climatic variation Dengue Disease dynamics Disease transmission Eco-epidemiology Epidemiological models Low probability Seasonal variation Spatial dynamics Stochastic dynamical model Susceptible population Epidemiology Probability distributions Risk perception Stochastic systems Stochastic models arrival date breeding site climate variation dengue fever disease transmission disease vector epidemic epidemiology health risk mosquito numerical model population distribution probability seasonal variation stochasticity Aedes aegypti Arbovirus article breeding climate change dengue disease carrier disease transmission epidemic hidden Markov model human nonhuman population density population dispersal probability risk assessment seasonal population dynamics seasonal variation species extinction stochastic model temperature dependence yellow fever Aedes Animals Argentina Dengue Disease Outbreaks Humans Insect Vectors Models, Biological Models, Statistical Seasons Stochastic Processes Urban Population Aedes aegypti |
description |
We present a stochastic dynamical model for the transmission of dengue that takes into account seasonal and spatial dynamics of the vector Aedes aegypti. It describes disease dynamics triggered by the arrival of infected people in a city. We show that the probability of an epidemic outbreak depends on seasonal variation in temperature and on the availability of breeding sites. We also show that the arrival date of an infected human in a susceptible population dramatically affects the distribution of the final size of epidemics and that early outbreaks have a low probability. However, early outbreaks are likely to produce large epidemics because they have a longer time to evolve before the winter extinction of vectors. Our model could be used to estimate the risk and final size of epidemic outbreaks in regions with seasonal climatic variations. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. |
format |
JOUR |
author |
Otero, M. Solari, H.G. |
author_facet |
Otero, M. Solari, H.G. |
author_sort |
Otero, M. |
title |
Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito |
title_short |
Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito |
title_full |
Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito |
title_fullStr |
Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito |
title_full_unstemmed |
Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito |
title_sort |
stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by aedes aegypti mosquito |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_00255564_v223_n1_p32_Otero |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT oterom stochasticecoepidemiologicalmodelofdenguediseasetransmissionbyaedesaegyptimosquito AT solarihg stochasticecoepidemiologicalmodelofdenguediseasetransmissionbyaedesaegyptimosquito |
_version_ |
1782030238940659712 |