The impact of climate variability on soybean yields in Argentina. Multivariate regression

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Climate variability is examined and discussed in this work, emphasizing its influence over the fluctuation of soybean yield in the Pampas (central-eastern Argentina). Monthly data of rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, thermal range and seasonal rainfall were analysed jointly with the soybea...

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Autores principales: Penalba, O.C., Bettolli, M.L., Vargas, W.M.
Formato: Artículo publishedVersion
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: 2007
Materias:
Argentina
Climate variability
Soybean yield
Statistical models
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_13504827_v14_n1_p3_Penalba
Aporte de:
Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires
id paperaa:paper_13504827_v14_n1_p3_Penalba
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spelling paperaa:paper_13504827_v14_n1_p3_Penalba2023-06-12T16:49:50Z The impact of climate variability on soybean yields in Argentina. Multivariate regression Meteorol. Appl. 2007;14(1):3-14 Penalba, O.C. Bettolli, M.L. Vargas, W.M. Argentina Climate variability Soybean yield Statistical models Climate variability is examined and discussed in this work, emphasizing its influence over the fluctuation of soybean yield in the Pampas (central-eastern Argentina). Monthly data of rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, thermal range and seasonal rainfall were analysed jointly with the soybean yield in the period 1973-2000. Low-frequency variability was significant only in the minimum temperature during November in almost all the stations. This situation is favourable to the crop since during this month, seed germination, a growth stage sensitive to low temperatures, takes place. In the crop's core production region, 72% of the series of soybean yield presented a positive trend. Except in years with extreme rainfall situations, interannual variability of the soybean yield is in phase with the seasonal rainfall interannual variability. During these years, losses in the soybean crop occurred, with yield negative anomalies greater than one standard deviation. Soybean yield showed spatial coherence at the local scale, except in the crop's core zone. The association between each climate variable and yield did not show a defined regional pattern. Summer high temperature and rainfall excesses during the period of maturity and harvest have the greatest negative impact on the crop, whilst higher minimum temperatures during the growing season favour high yields. The joint effect of climate variables over yield was studied with multivariate statistical models, assuming that the effect of other factors (such as soil, technology, pests) is contained in the residuals. The regression models represent the estimates of the yield satisfactorily (high percentage of explained variance) and can be used to assess expected anomalies of mean soybean yield for a particular year. However, the predictor variables of the yield depend on the region. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society. Fil:Penalba, O.C. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Bettolli, M.L. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Vargas, W.M. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. 2007 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion application/pdf eng info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_13504827_v14_n1_p3_Penalba
institution Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str I-28
repository_str R-134
collection Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
language Inglés
orig_language_str_mv eng
topic Argentina
Climate variability
Soybean yield
Statistical models
spellingShingle Argentina
Climate variability
Soybean yield
Statistical models
Penalba, O.C.
Bettolli, M.L.
Vargas, W.M.
The impact of climate variability on soybean yields in Argentina. Multivariate regression
topic_facet Argentina
Climate variability
Soybean yield
Statistical models
description Climate variability is examined and discussed in this work, emphasizing its influence over the fluctuation of soybean yield in the Pampas (central-eastern Argentina). Monthly data of rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, thermal range and seasonal rainfall were analysed jointly with the soybean yield in the period 1973-2000. Low-frequency variability was significant only in the minimum temperature during November in almost all the stations. This situation is favourable to the crop since during this month, seed germination, a growth stage sensitive to low temperatures, takes place. In the crop's core production region, 72% of the series of soybean yield presented a positive trend. Except in years with extreme rainfall situations, interannual variability of the soybean yield is in phase with the seasonal rainfall interannual variability. During these years, losses in the soybean crop occurred, with yield negative anomalies greater than one standard deviation. Soybean yield showed spatial coherence at the local scale, except in the crop's core zone. The association between each climate variable and yield did not show a defined regional pattern. Summer high temperature and rainfall excesses during the period of maturity and harvest have the greatest negative impact on the crop, whilst higher minimum temperatures during the growing season favour high yields. The joint effect of climate variables over yield was studied with multivariate statistical models, assuming that the effect of other factors (such as soil, technology, pests) is contained in the residuals. The regression models represent the estimates of the yield satisfactorily (high percentage of explained variance) and can be used to assess expected anomalies of mean soybean yield for a particular year. However, the predictor variables of the yield depend on the region. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society.
format Artículo
Artículo
publishedVersion
author Penalba, O.C.
Bettolli, M.L.
Vargas, W.M.
author_facet Penalba, O.C.
Bettolli, M.L.
Vargas, W.M.
author_sort Penalba, O.C.
title The impact of climate variability on soybean yields in Argentina. Multivariate regression
title_short The impact of climate variability on soybean yields in Argentina. Multivariate regression
title_full The impact of climate variability on soybean yields in Argentina. Multivariate regression
title_fullStr The impact of climate variability on soybean yields in Argentina. Multivariate regression
title_full_unstemmed The impact of climate variability on soybean yields in Argentina. Multivariate regression
title_sort impact of climate variability on soybean yields in argentina. multivariate regression
publishDate 2007
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_13504827_v14_n1_p3_Penalba
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