Comparison of two detailed models of Aedes aegypti population dynamics

The success of control programs for mosquito-borne diseases can be enhanced by crucial information provided by models of the mosquito populations. Models, however, can differ in their structure, complexity, and biological assumptions, and these differences impact their predictions. Unfortunately, it...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Otero, Marcelo Javier, Solari, Hernán Gustavo
Publicado:	2016
Materias:	Aedes aegypti Model comparison Mosquito-borne diseases Population dynamics Spatial model Vector control
Acceso en línea:	https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_21508925_v7_n10_p_Legros http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_21508925_v7_n10_p_Legros
Aporte de:	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires

id	paper:paper_21508925_v7_n10_p_Legros
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spelling	paper:paper_21508925_v7_n10_p_Legros2023-06-08T16:34:21Z Comparison of two detailed models of Aedes aegypti population dynamics Otero, Marcelo Javier Solari, Hernán Gustavo Aedes aegypti Model comparison Mosquito-borne diseases Population dynamics Spatial model Vector control The success of control programs for mosquito-borne diseases can be enhanced by crucial information provided by models of the mosquito populations. Models, however, can differ in their structure, complexity, and biological assumptions, and these differences impact their predictions. Unfortunately, it is typically difficult to determine why two complex models make different predictions because we lack structured side-by-side comparisons of models using comparable parameterization. Here, we present a detailed comparison of two complex, spatially explicit, stochastic models of the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, the main vector of dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. Both models describe the mosquito's biological and ecological characteristics, but differ in complexity and specific assumptions. We compare the predictions of these models in two selected climatic settings: A tropical and weakly seasonal climate in Iquitos, Peru, and a temperate and strongly seasonal climate in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Both models were calibrated to operate at identical average densities in unperturbed conditions in both settings, by adjusting parameters regulating densities in each model (number of larval development sites and amount of nutritional resources). We show that the models differ in their sensitivity to environmental conditions (temperature and rainfall) and trace differences to specific model assumptions. Temporal dynamics of the Ae. aegypti populations predicted by the two models differ more markedly under strongly seasonal Buenos Aires conditions. We use both models to simulate killing of larvae and/or adults with insecticides in selected areas. We show that predictions of population recovery by the models differ substantially, an effect likely related to model assumptions regarding larval development and (direct or delayed) density dependence. Our methodical comparison provides important guidance for model improvement by identifying key areas of Ae. aegypti ecology that substantially affect model predictions, and revealing the impact of model assumptions on population dynamics predictions in unperturbed and perturbed conditions. Copyright: © 2016 Legros et al. Fil:Otero, M. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Solari, H. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. 2016 https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_21508925_v7_n10_p_Legros http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_21508925_v7_n10_p_Legros
institution	Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str	I-28
repository_str	R-134
collection	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic	Aedes aegypti Model comparison Mosquito-borne diseases Population dynamics Spatial model Vector control
spellingShingle	Aedes aegypti Model comparison Mosquito-borne diseases Population dynamics Spatial model Vector control Otero, Marcelo Javier Solari, Hernán Gustavo Comparison of two detailed models of Aedes aegypti population dynamics
topic_facet	Aedes aegypti Model comparison Mosquito-borne diseases Population dynamics Spatial model Vector control
description	The success of control programs for mosquito-borne diseases can be enhanced by crucial information provided by models of the mosquito populations. Models, however, can differ in their structure, complexity, and biological assumptions, and these differences impact their predictions. Unfortunately, it is typically difficult to determine why two complex models make different predictions because we lack structured side-by-side comparisons of models using comparable parameterization. Here, we present a detailed comparison of two complex, spatially explicit, stochastic models of the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, the main vector of dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. Both models describe the mosquito's biological and ecological characteristics, but differ in complexity and specific assumptions. We compare the predictions of these models in two selected climatic settings: A tropical and weakly seasonal climate in Iquitos, Peru, and a temperate and strongly seasonal climate in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Both models were calibrated to operate at identical average densities in unperturbed conditions in both settings, by adjusting parameters regulating densities in each model (number of larval development sites and amount of nutritional resources). We show that the models differ in their sensitivity to environmental conditions (temperature and rainfall) and trace differences to specific model assumptions. Temporal dynamics of the Ae. aegypti populations predicted by the two models differ more markedly under strongly seasonal Buenos Aires conditions. We use both models to simulate killing of larvae and/or adults with insecticides in selected areas. We show that predictions of population recovery by the models differ substantially, an effect likely related to model assumptions regarding larval development and (direct or delayed) density dependence. Our methodical comparison provides important guidance for model improvement by identifying key areas of Ae. aegypti ecology that substantially affect model predictions, and revealing the impact of model assumptions on population dynamics predictions in unperturbed and perturbed conditions. Copyright: © 2016 Legros et al.
author	Otero, Marcelo Javier Solari, Hernán Gustavo
author_facet	Otero, Marcelo Javier Solari, Hernán Gustavo
author_sort	Otero, Marcelo Javier
title	Comparison of two detailed models of Aedes aegypti population dynamics
title_short	Comparison of two detailed models of Aedes aegypti population dynamics
title_full	Comparison of two detailed models of Aedes aegypti population dynamics
title_fullStr	Comparison of two detailed models of Aedes aegypti population dynamics
title_full_unstemmed	Comparison of two detailed models of Aedes aegypti population dynamics
title_sort	comparison of two detailed models of aedes aegypti population dynamics
publishDate	2016
url	https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_21508925_v7_n10_p_Legros http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_21508925_v7_n10_p_Legros
work_keys_str_mv	AT oteromarcelojavier comparisonoftwodetailedmodelsofaedesaegyptipopulationdynamics AT solarihernangustavo comparisonoftwodetailedmodelsofaedesaegyptipopulationdynamics
_version_	1768546697067102208

Comparison of two detailed models of Aedes aegypti population dynamics

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