The hydrologic cycle of the la plata basin in the WCRP-CMIP3 multimodel dataset

General circulation models (GCMs) forced under different greenhouse gases emission and socioeconomic scenarios are currently the most extended tool throughout the scientific community that is used to infer the future climate on Earth. However, these models still have problems in capturing several as...

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Autor principal:	Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio
Publicado:	2010
Materias:	General circulation models Hydrologic cycle Hydrologic models South America climate change data set emission control general circulation model greenhouse gas hydrograph hydrological cycle hydrological modeling Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change runoff La Plata Basin
Acceso en línea:	https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_1525755X_v11_n5_p1083_Saurral http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_1525755X_v11_n5_p1083_Saurral
Aporte de:	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires

id	paper:paper_1525755X_v11_n5_p1083_Saurral
record_format	dspace
spelling	paper:paper_1525755X_v11_n5_p1083_Saurral2023-06-08T16:19:33Z The hydrologic cycle of the la plata basin in the WCRP-CMIP3 multimodel dataset Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio General circulation models Hydrologic cycle Hydrologic models South America climate change data set emission control general circulation model greenhouse gas hydrograph hydrological cycle hydrological modeling Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change runoff La Plata Basin General circulation models (GCMs) forced under different greenhouse gases emission and socioeconomic scenarios are currently the most extended tool throughout the scientific community that is used to infer the future climate on Earth. However, these models still have problems in capturing several aspects of regional climate variability in many parts of the globe. In this paper, the hydrological cycle of the La Plata Basin is simulated using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) distributed hydrology model and forced with atmospheric data from different GCMs to determine to what extent errors in temperature and precipitation fields impact the hydrology of the basin. The skill assessment is performed in terms of simulated runoff at different closing points. Simulated hydrographs show that all of the GCMs present deficiencies in simulating the regional climatology of southern South America, and this leads to a very poor representation of the hydrological cycle of the main rivers across the basin. Two unbiasing schemes are then proposed as a means of correcting the GCM outputs before forcing the hydrology model, and comparisons between biased and unbiased simulations are also performed. Results indicate that both schemes, though methodologically different, reduce the water cycle simulation bias. Finally, VIC is forced with bias-corrected data from the GCMs for future decades (2030 and 2070) under different socioeconomic scenarios [e.g., the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) scenarios A1B, A2, and B1] to determine the potential changes in streamflow due to climate change for the rest of the present century. © 2010 American Meteorological Society. Fil:Saurral, R.I. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. 2010 https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_1525755X_v11_n5_p1083_Saurral http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_1525755X_v11_n5_p1083_Saurral
institution	Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str	I-28
repository_str	R-134
collection	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic	General circulation models Hydrologic cycle Hydrologic models South America climate change data set emission control general circulation model greenhouse gas hydrograph hydrological cycle hydrological modeling Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change runoff La Plata Basin
spellingShingle	General circulation models Hydrologic cycle Hydrologic models South America climate change data set emission control general circulation model greenhouse gas hydrograph hydrological cycle hydrological modeling Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change runoff La Plata Basin Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio The hydrologic cycle of the la plata basin in the WCRP-CMIP3 multimodel dataset
topic_facet	General circulation models Hydrologic cycle Hydrologic models South America climate change data set emission control general circulation model greenhouse gas hydrograph hydrological cycle hydrological modeling Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change runoff La Plata Basin
description	General circulation models (GCMs) forced under different greenhouse gases emission and socioeconomic scenarios are currently the most extended tool throughout the scientific community that is used to infer the future climate on Earth. However, these models still have problems in capturing several aspects of regional climate variability in many parts of the globe. In this paper, the hydrological cycle of the La Plata Basin is simulated using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) distributed hydrology model and forced with atmospheric data from different GCMs to determine to what extent errors in temperature and precipitation fields impact the hydrology of the basin. The skill assessment is performed in terms of simulated runoff at different closing points. Simulated hydrographs show that all of the GCMs present deficiencies in simulating the regional climatology of southern South America, and this leads to a very poor representation of the hydrological cycle of the main rivers across the basin. Two unbiasing schemes are then proposed as a means of correcting the GCM outputs before forcing the hydrology model, and comparisons between biased and unbiased simulations are also performed. Results indicate that both schemes, though methodologically different, reduce the water cycle simulation bias. Finally, VIC is forced with bias-corrected data from the GCMs for future decades (2030 and 2070) under different socioeconomic scenarios [e.g., the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) scenarios A1B, A2, and B1] to determine the potential changes in streamflow due to climate change for the rest of the present century. © 2010 American Meteorological Society.
author	Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio
author_facet	Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio
author_sort	Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio
title	The hydrologic cycle of the la plata basin in the WCRP-CMIP3 multimodel dataset
title_short	The hydrologic cycle of the la plata basin in the WCRP-CMIP3 multimodel dataset
title_full	The hydrologic cycle of the la plata basin in the WCRP-CMIP3 multimodel dataset
title_fullStr	The hydrologic cycle of the la plata basin in the WCRP-CMIP3 multimodel dataset
title_full_unstemmed	The hydrologic cycle of the la plata basin in the WCRP-CMIP3 multimodel dataset
title_sort	hydrologic cycle of the la plata basin in the wcrp-cmip3 multimodel dataset
publishDate	2010
url	https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_1525755X_v11_n5_p1083_Saurral http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_1525755X_v11_n5_p1083_Saurral
work_keys_str_mv	AT saurralramiroignacio thehydrologiccycleofthelaplatabasininthewcrpcmip3multimodeldataset AT saurralramiroignacio hydrologiccycleofthelaplatabasininthewcrpcmip3multimodeldataset
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The hydrologic cycle of the la plata basin in the WCRP-CMIP3 multimodel dataset

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