Climate predictability and prediction skill on seasonal time scales over South America from CHFP models

This work presents an assessment of the predictability and skill of climate anomalies over South America. The study was made considering a multi-model ensemble of seasonal forecasts for surface air temperature, precipitation and regional circulation, from coupled global circulation models included i...

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Autores principales:	Osman, Marisol, Vera, Carolina Susana
Publicado:	2017
Materias:	El Niño Southern Oscillation Precipitation Seasonal predictability South America Temperature air temperature climate modeling climate variation correlation El Nino-Southern Oscillation ensemble forecasting precipitation (climatology) prediction seasonal variation zonal wind
Acceso en línea:	https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_09307575_v49_n7-8_p2365_Osman http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_09307575_v49_n7-8_p2365_Osman
Aporte de:	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires

id	paper:paper_09307575_v49_n7-8_p2365_Osman
record_format	dspace
spelling	paper:paper_09307575_v49_n7-8_p2365_Osman2023-06-08T15:52:48Z Climate predictability and prediction skill on seasonal time scales over South America from CHFP models Osman, Marisol Vera, Carolina Susana El Niño Southern Oscillation Precipitation Seasonal predictability South America Temperature air temperature climate modeling climate variation correlation El Nino-Southern Oscillation ensemble forecasting precipitation (climatology) prediction seasonal variation zonal wind South America This work presents an assessment of the predictability and skill of climate anomalies over South America. The study was made considering a multi-model ensemble of seasonal forecasts for surface air temperature, precipitation and regional circulation, from coupled global circulation models included in the Climate Historical Forecast Project. Predictability was evaluated through the estimation of the signal-to-total variance ratio while prediction skill was assessed computing anomaly correlation coefficients. Both indicators present over the continent higher values at the tropics than at the extratropics for both, surface air temperature and precipitation. Moreover, predictability and prediction skill for temperature are slightly higher in DJF than in JJA while for precipitation they exhibit similar levels in both seasons. The largest values of predictability and skill for both variables and seasons are found over northwestern South America while modest but still significant values for extratropical precipitation at southeastern South America and the extratropical Andes. The predictability levels in ENSO years of both variables are slightly higher, although with the same spatial distribution, than that obtained considering all years. Nevertheless, predictability at the tropics for both variables and seasons diminishes in both warm and cold ENSO years respect to that in all years. The latter can be attributed to changes in signal rather than in the noise. Predictability and prediction skill for low-level winds and upper-level zonal winds over South America was also assessed. Maximum levels of predictability for low-level winds were found were maximum mean values are observed, i.e. the regions associated with the equatorial trade winds, the midlatitudes westerlies and the South American Low-Level Jet. Predictability maxima for upper-level zonal winds locate where the subtropical jet peaks. Seasonal changes in wind predictability are observed that seem to be related to those associated with the signal, especially at the extratropics. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Fil:Osman, M. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Vera, C.S. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. 2017 https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_09307575_v49_n7-8_p2365_Osman http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_09307575_v49_n7-8_p2365_Osman
institution	Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str	I-28
repository_str	R-134
collection	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic	El Niño Southern Oscillation Precipitation Seasonal predictability South America Temperature air temperature climate modeling climate variation correlation El Nino-Southern Oscillation ensemble forecasting precipitation (climatology) prediction seasonal variation zonal wind South America
spellingShingle	El Niño Southern Oscillation Precipitation Seasonal predictability South America Temperature air temperature climate modeling climate variation correlation El Nino-Southern Oscillation ensemble forecasting precipitation (climatology) prediction seasonal variation zonal wind South America Osman, Marisol Vera, Carolina Susana Climate predictability and prediction skill on seasonal time scales over South America from CHFP models
topic_facet	El Niño Southern Oscillation Precipitation Seasonal predictability South America Temperature air temperature climate modeling climate variation correlation El Nino-Southern Oscillation ensemble forecasting precipitation (climatology) prediction seasonal variation zonal wind South America
description	This work presents an assessment of the predictability and skill of climate anomalies over South America. The study was made considering a multi-model ensemble of seasonal forecasts for surface air temperature, precipitation and regional circulation, from coupled global circulation models included in the Climate Historical Forecast Project. Predictability was evaluated through the estimation of the signal-to-total variance ratio while prediction skill was assessed computing anomaly correlation coefficients. Both indicators present over the continent higher values at the tropics than at the extratropics for both, surface air temperature and precipitation. Moreover, predictability and prediction skill for temperature are slightly higher in DJF than in JJA while for precipitation they exhibit similar levels in both seasons. The largest values of predictability and skill for both variables and seasons are found over northwestern South America while modest but still significant values for extratropical precipitation at southeastern South America and the extratropical Andes. The predictability levels in ENSO years of both variables are slightly higher, although with the same spatial distribution, than that obtained considering all years. Nevertheless, predictability at the tropics for both variables and seasons diminishes in both warm and cold ENSO years respect to that in all years. The latter can be attributed to changes in signal rather than in the noise. Predictability and prediction skill for low-level winds and upper-level zonal winds over South America was also assessed. Maximum levels of predictability for low-level winds were found were maximum mean values are observed, i.e. the regions associated with the equatorial trade winds, the midlatitudes westerlies and the South American Low-Level Jet. Predictability maxima for upper-level zonal winds locate where the subtropical jet peaks. Seasonal changes in wind predictability are observed that seem to be related to those associated with the signal, especially at the extratropics. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
author	Osman, Marisol Vera, Carolina Susana
author_facet	Osman, Marisol Vera, Carolina Susana
author_sort	Osman, Marisol
title	Climate predictability and prediction skill on seasonal time scales over South America from CHFP models
title_short	Climate predictability and prediction skill on seasonal time scales over South America from CHFP models
title_full	Climate predictability and prediction skill on seasonal time scales over South America from CHFP models
title_fullStr	Climate predictability and prediction skill on seasonal time scales over South America from CHFP models
title_full_unstemmed	Climate predictability and prediction skill on seasonal time scales over South America from CHFP models
title_sort	climate predictability and prediction skill on seasonal time scales over south america from chfp models
publishDate	2017
url	https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_09307575_v49_n7-8_p2365_Osman http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_09307575_v49_n7-8_p2365_Osman
work_keys_str_mv	AT osmanmarisol climatepredictabilityandpredictionskillonseasonaltimescalesoversouthamericafromchfpmodels AT veracarolinasusana climatepredictabilityandpredictionskillonseasonaltimescalesoversouthamericafromchfpmodels
_version_	1768545794608070656

Climate predictability and prediction skill on seasonal time scales over South America from CHFP models

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