Predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere from CHFP models

An assessment of the predictability and prediction skill of the tropospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere was done. The analysis is based on seasonal forecasts of geopotential heights at 200, 500 and 850 hPa, for austral summer and winter from 11 models participating in the Climate Histori...

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Autores principales:	Osman, Marisol, Vera, Carolina Susana
Publicado:	2016
Materias:	El niño southern oscillation Geopotential heights Seasonal predictability Southern hemisphere atmospheric circulation climate prediction El Nino-Southern Oscillation geopotential Southern Hemisphere troposphere Amundsen Sea Bellingshausen Sea Southern Ocean
Acceso en línea:	https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_09307575_v46_n7-8_p2423_Osman http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_09307575_v46_n7-8_p2423_Osman
Aporte de:	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires

id	paper:paper_09307575_v46_n7-8_p2423_Osman
record_format	dspace
spelling	paper:paper_09307575_v46_n7-8_p2423_Osman2023-06-08T15:52:47Z Predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere from CHFP models Osman, Marisol Vera, Carolina Susana El niño southern oscillation Geopotential heights Seasonal predictability Southern hemisphere atmospheric circulation climate prediction El Nino-Southern Oscillation geopotential Southern Hemisphere troposphere Amundsen Sea Bellingshausen Sea Southern Ocean An assessment of the predictability and prediction skill of the tropospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere was done. The analysis is based on seasonal forecasts of geopotential heights at 200, 500 and 850 hPa, for austral summer and winter from 11 models participating in the Climate Historical Forecast Project. It is found that predictability (signal-to-variance ratio) and prediction skill (anomaly correlation) in the tropics is higher than in the extratropics and is also higher in summer than in winter. Both predictability and skill are higher at high than at low altitudes. Modest values of predictability and skill are found at polar latitudes in the Bellinghausen-Amundsen Seas. The analysis of the changes in predictability and prediction skill in ENSO events reveals that both are slightly higher in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years than in all years, while the spatial patterns of maxima and minima remain unchanged. Changes in signal-to-noise ratio observed are mainly due to signal changes rather than changes in noise. Composites of geopotential heights anomalies for El Niño and La Niña years are in agreement with observations. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015. Fil:Osman, M. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Vera, C.S. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. 2016 https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_09307575_v46_n7-8_p2423_Osman http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_09307575_v46_n7-8_p2423_Osman
institution	Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str	I-28
repository_str	R-134
collection	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic	El niño southern oscillation Geopotential heights Seasonal predictability Southern hemisphere atmospheric circulation climate prediction El Nino-Southern Oscillation geopotential Southern Hemisphere troposphere Amundsen Sea Bellingshausen Sea Southern Ocean
spellingShingle	El niño southern oscillation Geopotential heights Seasonal predictability Southern hemisphere atmospheric circulation climate prediction El Nino-Southern Oscillation geopotential Southern Hemisphere troposphere Amundsen Sea Bellingshausen Sea Southern Ocean Osman, Marisol Vera, Carolina Susana Predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere from CHFP models
topic_facet	El niño southern oscillation Geopotential heights Seasonal predictability Southern hemisphere atmospheric circulation climate prediction El Nino-Southern Oscillation geopotential Southern Hemisphere troposphere Amundsen Sea Bellingshausen Sea Southern Ocean
description	An assessment of the predictability and prediction skill of the tropospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere was done. The analysis is based on seasonal forecasts of geopotential heights at 200, 500 and 850 hPa, for austral summer and winter from 11 models participating in the Climate Historical Forecast Project. It is found that predictability (signal-to-variance ratio) and prediction skill (anomaly correlation) in the tropics is higher than in the extratropics and is also higher in summer than in winter. Both predictability and skill are higher at high than at low altitudes. Modest values of predictability and skill are found at polar latitudes in the Bellinghausen-Amundsen Seas. The analysis of the changes in predictability and prediction skill in ENSO events reveals that both are slightly higher in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years than in all years, while the spatial patterns of maxima and minima remain unchanged. Changes in signal-to-noise ratio observed are mainly due to signal changes rather than changes in noise. Composites of geopotential heights anomalies for El Niño and La Niña years are in agreement with observations. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015.
author	Osman, Marisol Vera, Carolina Susana
author_facet	Osman, Marisol Vera, Carolina Susana
author_sort	Osman, Marisol
title	Predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere from CHFP models
title_short	Predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere from CHFP models
title_full	Predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere from CHFP models
title_fullStr	Predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere from CHFP models
title_full_unstemmed	Predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere from CHFP models
title_sort	predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere from chfp models
publishDate	2016
url	https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_09307575_v46_n7-8_p2423_Osman http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_09307575_v46_n7-8_p2423_Osman
work_keys_str_mv	AT osmanmarisol predictabilityofthetroposphericcirculationinthesouthernhemispherefromchfpmodels AT veracarolinasusana predictabilityofthetroposphericcirculationinthesouthernhemispherefromchfpmodels
_version_	1768544965588156416

Predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere from CHFP models

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