Summer precipitation variability over Southeastern South America in a global warming scenario

December-January-February (DJF) rainfall variability in southeastern South America (SESA) is studied in 18 coupled general circulation models from the WCRP/CMIP3 dataset, for present climate and the SRES-A1B climate change scenario. The analysis is made in terms of properties of the first leading pa...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: Vera, Carolina Susana
Publicado: 2012
Materias:
Climate change
ENSO
Rainfall variability
South America climate
WCRP-CMIP3 multi-model dataset
climate change
convergence
El Nino-Southern Oscillation
general circulation model
global warming
moisture transfer
precipitation (climatology)
rainfall
Rossby wave
sea surface temperature
summer
temperature anomaly
temporal variation
Pacific Ocean
Pacific Ocean (Equatorial)
South America
Acceso en línea:https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_09307575_v38_n9-10_p1867_Junquas
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_09307575_v38_n9-10_p1867_Junquas
Aporte de:
Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires
id paper:paper_09307575_v38_n9-10_p1867_Junquas
record_format dspace
spelling paper:paper_09307575_v38_n9-10_p1867_Junquas2023-06-08T15:52:41Z Summer precipitation variability over Southeastern South America in a global warming scenario Vera, Carolina Susana Climate change ENSO Rainfall variability South America climate WCRP-CMIP3 multi-model dataset climate change convergence El Nino-Southern Oscillation general circulation model global warming moisture transfer precipitation (climatology) rainfall Rossby wave sea surface temperature summer temperature anomaly temporal variation Pacific Ocean Pacific Ocean (Equatorial) South America December-January-February (DJF) rainfall variability in southeastern South America (SESA) is studied in 18 coupled general circulation models from the WCRP/CMIP3 dataset, for present climate and the SRES-A1B climate change scenario. The analysis is made in terms of properties of the first leading pattern of rainfall variability in the region, characterized by a dipole-like structure with centers of action in the SESA and South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) regions. The study was performed to address two issues: how rainfall variability in SESA would change in a future climate and how much of that change explains the projected increasing trends in the summer mean rainfall in SESA identified in previous works. Positive (negative) dipole events were identified as those DJF seasons with above (below) normal rainfall in SESA and below (above) normal rainfall in the SACZ region. Results obtained from the multi-model ensemble confirm that future rainfall variability in SESA has a strong projection on the changes of seasonal dipole pattern activity, associated with an increase of the frequency of the positive phase. In addition, the frequency increase of positive dipole phase in the twenty first century seems to be associated with an increase of both frequency and intensity of positive SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, and with a Rossby wave train-like anomaly pattern linking that ocean basin to South America, which regionally induces favorable conditions for moisture transport convergence and rainfall increase in SESA. © 2011 Springer-Verlag. Fil:Vera, C. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. 2012 https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_09307575_v38_n9-10_p1867_Junquas http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_09307575_v38_n9-10_p1867_Junquas
institution Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str I-28
repository_str R-134
collection Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic Climate change
ENSO
Rainfall variability
South America climate
WCRP-CMIP3 multi-model dataset
climate change
convergence
El Nino-Southern Oscillation
general circulation model
global warming
moisture transfer
precipitation (climatology)
rainfall
Rossby wave
sea surface temperature
summer
temperature anomaly
temporal variation
Pacific Ocean
Pacific Ocean (Equatorial)
South America
spellingShingle Climate change
ENSO
Rainfall variability
South America climate
WCRP-CMIP3 multi-model dataset
climate change
convergence
El Nino-Southern Oscillation
general circulation model
global warming
moisture transfer
precipitation (climatology)
rainfall
Rossby wave
sea surface temperature
summer
temperature anomaly
temporal variation
Pacific Ocean
Pacific Ocean (Equatorial)
South America
Vera, Carolina Susana
Summer precipitation variability over Southeastern South America in a global warming scenario
topic_facet Climate change
ENSO
Rainfall variability
South America climate
WCRP-CMIP3 multi-model dataset
climate change
convergence
El Nino-Southern Oscillation
general circulation model
global warming
moisture transfer
precipitation (climatology)
rainfall
Rossby wave
sea surface temperature
summer
temperature anomaly
temporal variation
Pacific Ocean
Pacific Ocean (Equatorial)
South America
description December-January-February (DJF) rainfall variability in southeastern South America (SESA) is studied in 18 coupled general circulation models from the WCRP/CMIP3 dataset, for present climate and the SRES-A1B climate change scenario. The analysis is made in terms of properties of the first leading pattern of rainfall variability in the region, characterized by a dipole-like structure with centers of action in the SESA and South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) regions. The study was performed to address two issues: how rainfall variability in SESA would change in a future climate and how much of that change explains the projected increasing trends in the summer mean rainfall in SESA identified in previous works. Positive (negative) dipole events were identified as those DJF seasons with above (below) normal rainfall in SESA and below (above) normal rainfall in the SACZ region. Results obtained from the multi-model ensemble confirm that future rainfall variability in SESA has a strong projection on the changes of seasonal dipole pattern activity, associated with an increase of the frequency of the positive phase. In addition, the frequency increase of positive dipole phase in the twenty first century seems to be associated with an increase of both frequency and intensity of positive SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, and with a Rossby wave train-like anomaly pattern linking that ocean basin to South America, which regionally induces favorable conditions for moisture transport convergence and rainfall increase in SESA. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.
author Vera, Carolina Susana
author_facet Vera, Carolina Susana
author_sort Vera, Carolina Susana
title Summer precipitation variability over Southeastern South America in a global warming scenario
title_short Summer precipitation variability over Southeastern South America in a global warming scenario
title_full Summer precipitation variability over Southeastern South America in a global warming scenario
title_fullStr Summer precipitation variability over Southeastern South America in a global warming scenario
title_full_unstemmed Summer precipitation variability over Southeastern South America in a global warming scenario
title_sort summer precipitation variability over southeastern south america in a global warming scenario
publishDate 2012
url https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_09307575_v38_n9-10_p1867_Junquas
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_09307575_v38_n9-10_p1867_Junquas
work_keys_str_mv AT veracarolinasusana summerprecipitationvariabilityoversoutheasternsouthamericainaglobalwarmingscenario
_version_ 1768546123831574528

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