Error evaluation of NCEP and LAHM regional model daily forecasts over southern South America

NCEP short-range operational forecast and Limited Area HIBU (Federal Hydrometeorological Institute and Belgrade University) Model (LAHM) regional model performance during a 2-month period over the southern part of South America are evaluated through the analysis of bias and rmse's. While spatia...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Publicado: 2001
Materias:
Mathematical models
Precipitation (meteorology)
Radiosondes
Troposphere
Regional verification analysis
Weather forecasting
error analysis
precipitation (climatology)
weather forecasting
(South)
South America
Acceso en línea:https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_08828156_v16_n6_p697_Saulo
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_08828156_v16_n6_p697_Saulo
Aporte de:
Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires
id paper:paper_08828156_v16_n6_p697_Saulo
record_format dspace
spelling paper:paper_08828156_v16_n6_p697_Saulo2023-06-08T15:46:25Z Error evaluation of NCEP and LAHM regional model daily forecasts over southern South America Mathematical models Precipitation (meteorology) Radiosondes Troposphere Regional verification analysis Weather forecasting error analysis precipitation (climatology) weather forecasting (South) South America NCEP short-range operational forecast and Limited Area HIBU (Federal Hydrometeorological Institute and Belgrade University) Model (LAHM) regional model performance during a 2-month period over the southern part of South America are evaluated through the analysis of bias and rmse's. While spatial structure of errors could be only examined using gridded operational analyses as the "ground truth," observed data have been used at two radiosonde stations to have an independent control of forecast and analysis quality. LAHM precipitation forecast error has been also determined using observed 24-h accumulated precipitation over a subregion of interest. Bias and rmse are, in general, lower for Medium-Range Forecast Model (MRF) 24-h forecasts than for the regional model, though MRF errors appear to be larger than those reported by other studies carried out over the whole Southern Hemisphere, suggesting the necessity to perform regional verification analysis whenever gridded analyses and/or forecasts are being used. This recommendation particularly holds over data-void regions like South America. While geopotential and wind biases do not exhibit a particular pattern in either forecast, there is a clear tendency to cold biases over the whole troposphere, and for the MRF in particular, growing with height. The results obtained from LAHM evaluation suggest that continuous development is needed to keep this regional forecast system as a plausible counterpart of available global model products for fulfillment of local requirements. 2001 https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_08828156_v16_n6_p697_Saulo http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_08828156_v16_n6_p697_Saulo
institution Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str I-28
repository_str R-134
collection Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic Mathematical models
Precipitation (meteorology)
Radiosondes
Troposphere
Regional verification analysis
Weather forecasting
error analysis
precipitation (climatology)
weather forecasting
(South)
South America
spellingShingle Mathematical models
Precipitation (meteorology)
Radiosondes
Troposphere
Regional verification analysis
Weather forecasting
error analysis
precipitation (climatology)
weather forecasting
(South)
South America
Error evaluation of NCEP and LAHM regional model daily forecasts over southern South America
topic_facet Mathematical models
Precipitation (meteorology)
Radiosondes
Troposphere
Regional verification analysis
Weather forecasting
error analysis
precipitation (climatology)
weather forecasting
(South)
South America
description NCEP short-range operational forecast and Limited Area HIBU (Federal Hydrometeorological Institute and Belgrade University) Model (LAHM) regional model performance during a 2-month period over the southern part of South America are evaluated through the analysis of bias and rmse's. While spatial structure of errors could be only examined using gridded operational analyses as the "ground truth," observed data have been used at two radiosonde stations to have an independent control of forecast and analysis quality. LAHM precipitation forecast error has been also determined using observed 24-h accumulated precipitation over a subregion of interest. Bias and rmse are, in general, lower for Medium-Range Forecast Model (MRF) 24-h forecasts than for the regional model, though MRF errors appear to be larger than those reported by other studies carried out over the whole Southern Hemisphere, suggesting the necessity to perform regional verification analysis whenever gridded analyses and/or forecasts are being used. This recommendation particularly holds over data-void regions like South America. While geopotential and wind biases do not exhibit a particular pattern in either forecast, there is a clear tendency to cold biases over the whole troposphere, and for the MRF in particular, growing with height. The results obtained from LAHM evaluation suggest that continuous development is needed to keep this regional forecast system as a plausible counterpart of available global model products for fulfillment of local requirements.
title Error evaluation of NCEP and LAHM regional model daily forecasts over southern South America
title_short Error evaluation of NCEP and LAHM regional model daily forecasts over southern South America
title_full Error evaluation of NCEP and LAHM regional model daily forecasts over southern South America
title_fullStr Error evaluation of NCEP and LAHM regional model daily forecasts over southern South America
title_full_unstemmed Error evaluation of NCEP and LAHM regional model daily forecasts over southern South America
title_sort error evaluation of ncep and lahm regional model daily forecasts over southern south america
publishDate 2001
url https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_08828156_v16_n6_p697_Saulo
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_08828156_v16_n6_p697_Saulo
_version_ 1768543709701341184

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