Extended nonlinear feedback model for describing episodes of high inflation

An extension of the nonlinear feedback (NLF) formalism to describe regimes of hyper- and high-inflation in economy is proposed in the present work. In the NLF model the consumer price index (CPI) exhibits a finite time singularity of the type 1/(tc−t)(1−β)/β, with β>0, predicting a blow up of...

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Autor principal:	Szybisz, Leszek
Publicado:	2017
Materias:	Critical exponents Economics, econophysics Interdisciplinary applications of physics Singularity theory Social and economic systems Special functions Economics Critical exponent Econophysicss Nonlinear feedback
Acceso en línea:	https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_03784371_v465_n_p91_Szybisz http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_03784371_v465_n_p91_Szybisz
Aporte de:	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires

id	paper:paper_03784371_v465_n_p91_Szybisz
record_format	dspace
spelling	paper:paper_03784371_v465_n_p91_Szybisz2023-06-08T15:40:18Z Extended nonlinear feedback model for describing episodes of high inflation Szybisz, Leszek Critical exponents Economics, econophysics Interdisciplinary applications of physics Singularity theory Social and economic systems Special functions Economics Critical exponent Econophysicss Singularity theory Social and economic systems Special functions Nonlinear feedback An extension of the nonlinear feedback (NLF) formalism to describe regimes of hyper- and high-inflation in economy is proposed in the present work. In the NLF model the consumer price index (CPI) exhibits a finite time singularity of the type 1/(tc−t)(1−β)/β, with β>0, predicting a blow up of the economy at a critical time tc. However, this model fails in determining tc in the case of weak hyperinflation regimes like, e.g., that occurred in Israel. To overcome this trouble, the NLF model is extended by introducing a parameter γ, which multiplies all terms with past growth rate index (GRI). In this novel approach the solution for CPI is also analytic being proportional to the Gaussian hypergeometric function 2F1(1/β,1/β,1+1/β;z), where z is a function of β, γ, and tc. For z→1 this hypergeometric function diverges leading to a finite time singularity, from which a value of tc can be determined. This singularity is also present in GRI. It is shown that the interplay between parameters β and γ may produce phenomena of multiple equilibria. An analysis of the severe hyperinflation occurred in Hungary proves that the novel model is robust. When this model is used for examining data of Israel a reasonable tc is got. High-inflation regimes in Mexico and Iceland, which exhibit weaker inflations than that of Israel, are also successfully described. © 2016 Elsevier B.V. Fil:Szybisz, L. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. 2017 https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_03784371_v465_n_p91_Szybisz http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_03784371_v465_n_p91_Szybisz
institution	Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str	I-28
repository_str	R-134
collection	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic	Critical exponents Economics, econophysics Interdisciplinary applications of physics Singularity theory Social and economic systems Special functions Economics Critical exponent Econophysicss Singularity theory Social and economic systems Special functions Nonlinear feedback
spellingShingle	Critical exponents Economics, econophysics Interdisciplinary applications of physics Singularity theory Social and economic systems Special functions Economics Critical exponent Econophysicss Singularity theory Social and economic systems Special functions Nonlinear feedback Szybisz, Leszek Extended nonlinear feedback model for describing episodes of high inflation
topic_facet	Critical exponents Economics, econophysics Interdisciplinary applications of physics Singularity theory Social and economic systems Special functions Economics Critical exponent Econophysicss Singularity theory Social and economic systems Special functions Nonlinear feedback
description	An extension of the nonlinear feedback (NLF) formalism to describe regimes of hyper- and high-inflation in economy is proposed in the present work. In the NLF model the consumer price index (CPI) exhibits a finite time singularity of the type 1/(tc−t)(1−β)/β, with β>0, predicting a blow up of the economy at a critical time tc. However, this model fails in determining tc in the case of weak hyperinflation regimes like, e.g., that occurred in Israel. To overcome this trouble, the NLF model is extended by introducing a parameter γ, which multiplies all terms with past growth rate index (GRI). In this novel approach the solution for CPI is also analytic being proportional to the Gaussian hypergeometric function 2F1(1/β,1/β,1+1/β;z), where z is a function of β, γ, and tc. For z→1 this hypergeometric function diverges leading to a finite time singularity, from which a value of tc can be determined. This singularity is also present in GRI. It is shown that the interplay between parameters β and γ may produce phenomena of multiple equilibria. An analysis of the severe hyperinflation occurred in Hungary proves that the novel model is robust. When this model is used for examining data of Israel a reasonable tc is got. High-inflation regimes in Mexico and Iceland, which exhibit weaker inflations than that of Israel, are also successfully described. © 2016 Elsevier B.V.
author	Szybisz, Leszek
author_facet	Szybisz, Leszek
author_sort	Szybisz, Leszek
title	Extended nonlinear feedback model for describing episodes of high inflation
title_short	Extended nonlinear feedback model for describing episodes of high inflation
title_full	Extended nonlinear feedback model for describing episodes of high inflation
title_fullStr	Extended nonlinear feedback model for describing episodes of high inflation
title_full_unstemmed	Extended nonlinear feedback model for describing episodes of high inflation
title_sort	extended nonlinear feedback model for describing episodes of high inflation
publishDate	2017
url	https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_03784371_v465_n_p91_Szybisz http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_03784371_v465_n_p91_Szybisz
work_keys_str_mv	AT szybiszleszek extendednonlinearfeedbackmodelfordescribingepisodesofhighinflation
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Extended nonlinear feedback model for describing episodes of high inflation

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