Hyperinflation in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua revisited

The aim of the present work is to address the description of hyperinflation regimens in economy. The spirals of hyperinflation developed in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua are revisited. This new analysis of data indicates that the episodes occurred in Brazil and Nicaragua can be understood within the...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: Szybisz, Leszek
Publicado: 2017
Materias:
Critical exponents
Economics, econophysics
Interdisciplinary applications of physics
Singularity theory
Social and economic systems
Accidents
Nonlinear feedback
Analysis of data
Consumer price index
Critical exponent
Econophysicss
Finite time singularity
Linear feedback
Economics
Acceso en línea:https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_03784371_v465_n_p1_Szybisz
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_03784371_v465_n_p1_Szybisz
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Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires
id paper:paper_03784371_v465_n_p1_Szybisz
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spelling paper:paper_03784371_v465_n_p1_Szybisz2023-06-08T15:40:18Z Hyperinflation in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua revisited Szybisz, Leszek Critical exponents Economics, econophysics Interdisciplinary applications of physics Singularity theory Social and economic systems Accidents Nonlinear feedback Analysis of data Consumer price index Critical exponent Econophysicss Finite time singularity Linear feedback Singularity theory Social and economic systems Economics The aim of the present work is to address the description of hyperinflation regimens in economy. The spirals of hyperinflation developed in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua are revisited. This new analysis of data indicates that the episodes occurred in Brazil and Nicaragua can be understood within the frame of the model available in the literature, which is based on a nonlinear feedback (NLF) characterized by an exponent β>0. In the NLF model the accumulated consumer price index carries a finite time singularity of the type 1/(tc−t)(1−β)/β determining a critical time tc at which the economy would crash. It is shown that in the case of Brazil the entire episode cannot be described with a unique set of parameters because the time series was strongly affected by a change of policy. This fact gives support to the “so called” Lucas critique, who stated that model's parameters usually change once policy changes. On the other hand, such a model is not able to provide any tc in the case of the weaker hyperinflation occurred in Israel. It is shown that in this case the fit of data yields β→0. This limit leads to the linear feedback formulation which does not predict any tc. An extension for the NLF model is suggested. © 2016 Elsevier B.V. Fil:Szybisz, L. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. 2017 https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_03784371_v465_n_p1_Szybisz http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_03784371_v465_n_p1_Szybisz
institution Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str I-28
repository_str R-134
collection Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic Critical exponents
Economics, econophysics
Interdisciplinary applications of physics
Singularity theory
Social and economic systems
Accidents
Nonlinear feedback
Analysis of data
Consumer price index
Critical exponent
Econophysicss
Finite time singularity
Linear feedback
Singularity theory
Social and economic systems
Economics
spellingShingle Critical exponents
Economics, econophysics
Interdisciplinary applications of physics
Singularity theory
Social and economic systems
Accidents
Nonlinear feedback
Analysis of data
Consumer price index
Critical exponent
Econophysicss
Finite time singularity
Linear feedback
Singularity theory
Social and economic systems
Economics
Szybisz, Leszek
Hyperinflation in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua revisited
topic_facet Critical exponents
Economics, econophysics
Interdisciplinary applications of physics
Singularity theory
Social and economic systems
Accidents
Nonlinear feedback
Analysis of data
Consumer price index
Critical exponent
Econophysicss
Finite time singularity
Linear feedback
Singularity theory
Social and economic systems
Economics
description The aim of the present work is to address the description of hyperinflation regimens in economy. The spirals of hyperinflation developed in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua are revisited. This new analysis of data indicates that the episodes occurred in Brazil and Nicaragua can be understood within the frame of the model available in the literature, which is based on a nonlinear feedback (NLF) characterized by an exponent β>0. In the NLF model the accumulated consumer price index carries a finite time singularity of the type 1/(tc−t)(1−β)/β determining a critical time tc at which the economy would crash. It is shown that in the case of Brazil the entire episode cannot be described with a unique set of parameters because the time series was strongly affected by a change of policy. This fact gives support to the “so called” Lucas critique, who stated that model's parameters usually change once policy changes. On the other hand, such a model is not able to provide any tc in the case of the weaker hyperinflation occurred in Israel. It is shown that in this case the fit of data yields β→0. This limit leads to the linear feedback formulation which does not predict any tc. An extension for the NLF model is suggested. © 2016 Elsevier B.V.
author Szybisz, Leszek
author_facet Szybisz, Leszek
author_sort Szybisz, Leszek
title Hyperinflation in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua revisited
title_short Hyperinflation in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua revisited
title_full Hyperinflation in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua revisited
title_fullStr Hyperinflation in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua revisited
title_full_unstemmed Hyperinflation in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua revisited
title_sort hyperinflation in brazil, israel, and nicaragua revisited
publishDate 2017
url https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_03784371_v465_n_p1_Szybisz
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_03784371_v465_n_p1_Szybisz
work_keys_str_mv AT szybiszleszek hyperinflationinbrazilisraelandnicaraguarevisited
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