Analysis of interdecadal variability of temperature extreme events in Argentina applying EVT

The frequency of occurrence of temperature extreme events has changed throughout the last century: significant positive trends in warm nights and negative trends in cold nights have been observed all over the world. In Argentina, the probability of occurrence of warm annual extremes of maximum tempe...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Tencer, Bárbara, Rusticucci, Matilde
Publicado: 2012
Materias:
Argentina
Generalized pareto distribution
Return values
Temperature extreme events
decadal variation
extreme event
probability
temperature profile
trend analysis
Acceso en línea:https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_01876236_v25_n4_p327_Tencer
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_01876236_v25_n4_p327_Tencer
Aporte de:
Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires
id paper:paper_01876236_v25_n4_p327_Tencer
record_format dspace
spelling paper:paper_01876236_v25_n4_p327_Tencer2023-06-08T15:19:43Z Analysis of interdecadal variability of temperature extreme events in Argentina applying EVT Tencer, Bárbara Rusticucci, Matilde Argentina Generalized pareto distribution Return values Temperature extreme events decadal variation extreme event probability temperature profile trend analysis Argentina The frequency of occurrence of temperature extreme events has changed throughout the last century: significant positive trends in warm nights and negative trends in cold nights have been observed all over the world. In Argentina, the probability of occurrence of warm annual extremes of maximum temperature has decreased in the last decades, while there has been an increase in warm annual extremes of minimum temperature. The main objective of this paper is to evaluate observed interdecadal changes in the distribution of temperature events that exceed a fixed threshold in five meteorological stations from Argentina over the period 1941-2000, by applying the extreme value theory (EVT). The availability of daily data allows fitting a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to daily temperature anomalies over the 90th or below the 10th percentile, in order to estimate return values of extreme events. Daily temperature anomalies are divided into three consecutive and non-overlapping subperiods of 20 years. GPD is fitted to each subperiod independently and a comparison is made between return values estimated in each subperiod. Results show that there is a decrease in the intensity of warm extreme events during the whole period, together with an increase in its frequency of occurrence during the last 20 years of the twentieth century. Cold extremes also show a decrease in their intensity. However, changes in their frequency of occurrence are not so consistent between the different stations analyzed. Fil:Tencer, B. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Rusticucci, M. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. 2012 https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_01876236_v25_n4_p327_Tencer http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_01876236_v25_n4_p327_Tencer
institution Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str I-28
repository_str R-134
collection Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic Argentina
Generalized pareto distribution
Return values
Temperature extreme events
decadal variation
extreme event
probability
temperature profile
trend analysis
Argentina
spellingShingle Argentina
Generalized pareto distribution
Return values
Temperature extreme events
decadal variation
extreme event
probability
temperature profile
trend analysis
Argentina
Tencer, Bárbara
Rusticucci, Matilde
Analysis of interdecadal variability of temperature extreme events in Argentina applying EVT
topic_facet Argentina
Generalized pareto distribution
Return values
Temperature extreme events
decadal variation
extreme event
probability
temperature profile
trend analysis
Argentina
description The frequency of occurrence of temperature extreme events has changed throughout the last century: significant positive trends in warm nights and negative trends in cold nights have been observed all over the world. In Argentina, the probability of occurrence of warm annual extremes of maximum temperature has decreased in the last decades, while there has been an increase in warm annual extremes of minimum temperature. The main objective of this paper is to evaluate observed interdecadal changes in the distribution of temperature events that exceed a fixed threshold in five meteorological stations from Argentina over the period 1941-2000, by applying the extreme value theory (EVT). The availability of daily data allows fitting a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to daily temperature anomalies over the 90th or below the 10th percentile, in order to estimate return values of extreme events. Daily temperature anomalies are divided into three consecutive and non-overlapping subperiods of 20 years. GPD is fitted to each subperiod independently and a comparison is made between return values estimated in each subperiod. Results show that there is a decrease in the intensity of warm extreme events during the whole period, together with an increase in its frequency of occurrence during the last 20 years of the twentieth century. Cold extremes also show a decrease in their intensity. However, changes in their frequency of occurrence are not so consistent between the different stations analyzed.
author Tencer, Bárbara
Rusticucci, Matilde
author_facet Tencer, Bárbara
Rusticucci, Matilde
author_sort Tencer, Bárbara
title Analysis of interdecadal variability of temperature extreme events in Argentina applying EVT
title_short Analysis of interdecadal variability of temperature extreme events in Argentina applying EVT
title_full Analysis of interdecadal variability of temperature extreme events in Argentina applying EVT
title_fullStr Analysis of interdecadal variability of temperature extreme events in Argentina applying EVT
title_full_unstemmed Analysis of interdecadal variability of temperature extreme events in Argentina applying EVT
title_sort analysis of interdecadal variability of temperature extreme events in argentina applying evt
publishDate 2012
url https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_01876236_v25_n4_p327_Tencer
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_01876236_v25_n4_p327_Tencer
work_keys_str_mv AT tencerbarbara analysisofinterdecadalvariabilityoftemperatureextremeeventsinargentinaapplyingevt
AT rusticuccimatilde analysisofinterdecadalvariabilityoftemperatureextremeeventsinargentinaapplyingevt
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