An intercomparison of observed and simulated extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century: Part 2: Historical trends

We analyze historical simulations of variability in temperature and rainfall extremes in the twentieth century, as derived from various global models run informing the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4). On the basis of three indices of climate extre...

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Autores principales:	Rusticucci, Matilde, Penalba, Olga C., Renom Molina, Madeleine
Publicado:	2010
Materias:	Dry spells Extreme rainfall Extreme temperature indices Global models Heavy rainfall Historical simulation Historical trends Intercomparisons Intergovernmental panel on climate changes La Plata basin Rainfall extremes Regional pattern South America Spatial distribution Time and space Twentieth century Warm nights Climate models Rain Size distribution Climate change climate modeling extreme event historical record precipitation intensity spatial distribution temperature profile trend analysis twentieth century
Acceso en línea:	https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_01650009_v98_n3_p509_Marengo http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_01650009_v98_n3_p509_Marengo
Aporte de:	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires

id	paper:paper_01650009_v98_n3_p509_Marengo
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spelling	paper:paper_01650009_v98_n3_p509_Marengo2025-07-30T17:53:30Z An intercomparison of observed and simulated extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century: Part 2: Historical trends Rusticucci, Matilde Penalba, Olga C. Renom Molina, Madeleine Dry spells Extreme rainfall Extreme temperature indices Global models Heavy rainfall Historical simulation Historical trends Intercomparisons Intergovernmental panel on climate changes La Plata basin Rainfall extremes Regional pattern South America Spatial distribution Time and space Twentieth century Warm nights Climate models Rain Size distribution Climate change climate modeling extreme event historical record precipitation intensity spatial distribution temperature profile trend analysis twentieth century South America We analyze historical simulations of variability in temperature and rainfall extremes in the twentieth century, as derived from various global models run informing the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4). On the basis of three indices of climate extremes, we compare observed and modeled trends in time and space, including the direction and significance of the changes at the scale of South America south of 10° S. The climate extremes described warm nights, heavy rainfall amounts and dry spells. The reliability of the GCM simulations is suggested by similarity between observations and simulations in the case of warm nights and extreme rainfall in some regions. For any specific extreme temperature index, minor differences appear in the spatial distribution of the changes across models in some regions, while substantial differences appear in regions in the interior of tropical and subtropical South America. The differences are in the relative magnitude of the trends. Consensus and significance are less strong when regional patterns are considered, with the exception of the La Plata Basin, where observed and simulated trends in warm nights and extreme rainfall are evident. © Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2009. Fil:Rusticucci, M. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Penalba, O. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Renom, M. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. 2010 https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_01650009_v98_n3_p509_Marengo http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_01650009_v98_n3_p509_Marengo
institution	Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str	I-28
repository_str	R-134
collection	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic	Dry spells Extreme rainfall Extreme temperature indices Global models Heavy rainfall Historical simulation Historical trends Intercomparisons Intergovernmental panel on climate changes La Plata basin Rainfall extremes Regional pattern South America Spatial distribution Time and space Twentieth century Warm nights Climate models Rain Size distribution Climate change climate modeling extreme event historical record precipitation intensity spatial distribution temperature profile trend analysis twentieth century South America
spellingShingle	Dry spells Extreme rainfall Extreme temperature indices Global models Heavy rainfall Historical simulation Historical trends Intercomparisons Intergovernmental panel on climate changes La Plata basin Rainfall extremes Regional pattern South America Spatial distribution Time and space Twentieth century Warm nights Climate models Rain Size distribution Climate change climate modeling extreme event historical record precipitation intensity spatial distribution temperature profile trend analysis twentieth century South America Rusticucci, Matilde Penalba, Olga C. Renom Molina, Madeleine An intercomparison of observed and simulated extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century: Part 2: Historical trends
topic_facet	Dry spells Extreme rainfall Extreme temperature indices Global models Heavy rainfall Historical simulation Historical trends Intercomparisons Intergovernmental panel on climate changes La Plata basin Rainfall extremes Regional pattern South America Spatial distribution Time and space Twentieth century Warm nights Climate models Rain Size distribution Climate change climate modeling extreme event historical record precipitation intensity spatial distribution temperature profile trend analysis twentieth century South America
description	We analyze historical simulations of variability in temperature and rainfall extremes in the twentieth century, as derived from various global models run informing the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4). On the basis of three indices of climate extremes, we compare observed and modeled trends in time and space, including the direction and significance of the changes at the scale of South America south of 10° S. The climate extremes described warm nights, heavy rainfall amounts and dry spells. The reliability of the GCM simulations is suggested by similarity between observations and simulations in the case of warm nights and extreme rainfall in some regions. For any specific extreme temperature index, minor differences appear in the spatial distribution of the changes across models in some regions, while substantial differences appear in regions in the interior of tropical and subtropical South America. The differences are in the relative magnitude of the trends. Consensus and significance are less strong when regional patterns are considered, with the exception of the La Plata Basin, where observed and simulated trends in warm nights and extreme rainfall are evident. © Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2009.
author	Rusticucci, Matilde Penalba, Olga C. Renom Molina, Madeleine
author_facet	Rusticucci, Matilde Penalba, Olga C. Renom Molina, Madeleine
author_sort	Rusticucci, Matilde
title	An intercomparison of observed and simulated extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century: Part 2: Historical trends
title_short	An intercomparison of observed and simulated extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century: Part 2: Historical trends
title_full	An intercomparison of observed and simulated extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century: Part 2: Historical trends
title_fullStr	An intercomparison of observed and simulated extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century: Part 2: Historical trends
title_full_unstemmed	An intercomparison of observed and simulated extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century: Part 2: Historical trends
title_sort	intercomparison of observed and simulated extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century: part 2: historical trends
publishDate	2010
url	https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_01650009_v98_n3_p509_Marengo http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_01650009_v98_n3_p509_Marengo
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An intercomparison of observed and simulated extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century: Part 2: Historical trends

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