An early prediction of maximum sunspot number in solar cycle 24

A non-linear coupling function between sunspot maxima and aa minima modulations has been found as a result of a wavelet analysis of geomagnetic index aa and Wolf sunspot number yearly means since 1844. It has been demonstrated that the increase of these modulations for the past 158 years has not bee...

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Autor principal: Duhau de Romero, Silvia
Publicado: 2003
Acceso en línea:https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_00380938_v213_n1_p203_Duhau
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_00380938_v213_n1_p203_Duhau
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Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires
id paper:paper_00380938_v213_n1_p203_Duhau
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spelling paper:paper_00380938_v213_n1_p203_Duhau2023-06-08T15:02:37Z An early prediction of maximum sunspot number in solar cycle 24 Duhau de Romero, Silvia A non-linear coupling function between sunspot maxima and aa minima modulations has been found as a result of a wavelet analysis of geomagnetic index aa and Wolf sunspot number yearly means since 1844. It has been demonstrated that the increase of these modulations for the past 158 years has not been steady, instead, it has occurred in less than 30 years starting around 1923. Otherwise sunspot maxima have oscillated about a constant level of 90 and 141, prior to 1923 and after 1949, respectively. The relevance of these findings regarding the forecasting of solar activity is analyzed here. It is found that if sunspot cycle maxima were still oscillating around the 141 constant value, then the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule would be violated for two consecutive even-odd sunspot pairs (22-23 and 24-25) for the first time in 1700 years. Instead, we present evidence that solar activity is in a declining episode that started about 1993. A value for maximum sunspot number in solar cycle 24 (87.5 ± 23.5) is estimated from our results. Fil:Duhau, S. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. 2003 https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_00380938_v213_n1_p203_Duhau http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_00380938_v213_n1_p203_Duhau
institution Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str I-28
repository_str R-134
collection Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
description A non-linear coupling function between sunspot maxima and aa minima modulations has been found as a result of a wavelet analysis of geomagnetic index aa and Wolf sunspot number yearly means since 1844. It has been demonstrated that the increase of these modulations for the past 158 years has not been steady, instead, it has occurred in less than 30 years starting around 1923. Otherwise sunspot maxima have oscillated about a constant level of 90 and 141, prior to 1923 and after 1949, respectively. The relevance of these findings regarding the forecasting of solar activity is analyzed here. It is found that if sunspot cycle maxima were still oscillating around the 141 constant value, then the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule would be violated for two consecutive even-odd sunspot pairs (22-23 and 24-25) for the first time in 1700 years. Instead, we present evidence that solar activity is in a declining episode that started about 1993. A value for maximum sunspot number in solar cycle 24 (87.5 ± 23.5) is estimated from our results.
author Duhau de Romero, Silvia
spellingShingle Duhau de Romero, Silvia
An early prediction of maximum sunspot number in solar cycle 24
author_facet Duhau de Romero, Silvia
author_sort Duhau de Romero, Silvia
title An early prediction of maximum sunspot number in solar cycle 24
title_short An early prediction of maximum sunspot number in solar cycle 24
title_full An early prediction of maximum sunspot number in solar cycle 24
title_fullStr An early prediction of maximum sunspot number in solar cycle 24
title_full_unstemmed An early prediction of maximum sunspot number in solar cycle 24
title_sort early prediction of maximum sunspot number in solar cycle 24
publishDate 2003
url https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_00380938_v213_n1_p203_Duhau
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_00380938_v213_n1_p203_Duhau
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