Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito

We present a stochastic dynamical model for the transmission of dengue that takes into account seasonal and spatial dynamics of the vector Aedes aegypti. It describes disease dynamics triggered by the arrival of infected people in a city. We show that the probability of an epidemic outbreak depends...

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Autores principales:	Otero, Marcelo Javier, Solari, Hernán Gustavo
Publicado:	2010
Materias:	Aedes aegypti Dengue Eco-epidemiology Stochastic models Climatic variation Disease dynamics Disease transmission Epidemiological models Low probability Seasonal variation Spatial dynamics Stochastic dynamical model Susceptible population Epidemiology Probability distributions Risk perception Stochastic systems arrival date breeding site climate variation dengue fever disease transmission disease vector epidemic epidemiology health risk mosquito numerical model population distribution probability seasonal variation stochasticity Arbovirus article breeding climate change dengue disease carrier hidden Markov model human nonhuman population density population dispersal risk assessment seasonal population dynamics species extinction stochastic model temperature dependence yellow fever Aedes Animals Argentina Disease Outbreaks Humans Insect Vectors Models, Biological Models, Statistical Seasons Stochastic Processes Urban Population
Acceso en línea:	https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_00255564_v223_n1_p32_Otero http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_00255564_v223_n1_p32_Otero
Aporte de:	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires

id	paper:paper_00255564_v223_n1_p32_Otero
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spelling	paper:paper_00255564_v223_n1_p32_Otero2023-06-08T14:53:10Z Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito Otero, Marcelo Javier Solari, Hernán Gustavo Aedes aegypti Dengue Eco-epidemiology Stochastic models Aedes aegypti Climatic variation Dengue Disease dynamics Disease transmission Eco-epidemiology Epidemiological models Low probability Seasonal variation Spatial dynamics Stochastic dynamical model Susceptible population Epidemiology Probability distributions Risk perception Stochastic systems Stochastic models arrival date breeding site climate variation dengue fever disease transmission disease vector epidemic epidemiology health risk mosquito numerical model population distribution probability seasonal variation stochasticity Aedes aegypti Arbovirus article breeding climate change dengue disease carrier disease transmission epidemic hidden Markov model human nonhuman population density population dispersal probability risk assessment seasonal population dynamics seasonal variation species extinction stochastic model temperature dependence yellow fever Aedes Animals Argentina Dengue Disease Outbreaks Humans Insect Vectors Models, Biological Models, Statistical Seasons Stochastic Processes Urban Population Aedes aegypti We present a stochastic dynamical model for the transmission of dengue that takes into account seasonal and spatial dynamics of the vector Aedes aegypti. It describes disease dynamics triggered by the arrival of infected people in a city. We show that the probability of an epidemic outbreak depends on seasonal variation in temperature and on the availability of breeding sites. We also show that the arrival date of an infected human in a susceptible population dramatically affects the distribution of the final size of epidemics and that early outbreaks have a low probability. However, early outbreaks are likely to produce large epidemics because they have a longer time to evolve before the winter extinction of vectors. Our model could be used to estimate the risk and final size of epidemic outbreaks in regions with seasonal climatic variations. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Fil:Otero, M. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Solari, H.G. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. 2010 https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_00255564_v223_n1_p32_Otero http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_00255564_v223_n1_p32_Otero
institution	Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str	I-28
repository_str	R-134
collection	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic	Aedes aegypti Dengue Eco-epidemiology Stochastic models Aedes aegypti Climatic variation Dengue Disease dynamics Disease transmission Eco-epidemiology Epidemiological models Low probability Seasonal variation Spatial dynamics Stochastic dynamical model Susceptible population Epidemiology Probability distributions Risk perception Stochastic systems Stochastic models arrival date breeding site climate variation dengue fever disease transmission disease vector epidemic epidemiology health risk mosquito numerical model population distribution probability seasonal variation stochasticity Aedes aegypti Arbovirus article breeding climate change dengue disease carrier disease transmission epidemic hidden Markov model human nonhuman population density population dispersal probability risk assessment seasonal population dynamics seasonal variation species extinction stochastic model temperature dependence yellow fever Aedes Animals Argentina Dengue Disease Outbreaks Humans Insect Vectors Models, Biological Models, Statistical Seasons Stochastic Processes Urban Population Aedes aegypti
spellingShingle	Aedes aegypti Dengue Eco-epidemiology Stochastic models Aedes aegypti Climatic variation Dengue Disease dynamics Disease transmission Eco-epidemiology Epidemiological models Low probability Seasonal variation Spatial dynamics Stochastic dynamical model Susceptible population Epidemiology Probability distributions Risk perception Stochastic systems Stochastic models arrival date breeding site climate variation dengue fever disease transmission disease vector epidemic epidemiology health risk mosquito numerical model population distribution probability seasonal variation stochasticity Aedes aegypti Arbovirus article breeding climate change dengue disease carrier disease transmission epidemic hidden Markov model human nonhuman population density population dispersal probability risk assessment seasonal population dynamics seasonal variation species extinction stochastic model temperature dependence yellow fever Aedes Animals Argentina Dengue Disease Outbreaks Humans Insect Vectors Models, Biological Models, Statistical Seasons Stochastic Processes Urban Population Aedes aegypti Otero, Marcelo Javier Solari, Hernán Gustavo Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito
topic_facet	Aedes aegypti Dengue Eco-epidemiology Stochastic models Aedes aegypti Climatic variation Dengue Disease dynamics Disease transmission Eco-epidemiology Epidemiological models Low probability Seasonal variation Spatial dynamics Stochastic dynamical model Susceptible population Epidemiology Probability distributions Risk perception Stochastic systems Stochastic models arrival date breeding site climate variation dengue fever disease transmission disease vector epidemic epidemiology health risk mosquito numerical model population distribution probability seasonal variation stochasticity Aedes aegypti Arbovirus article breeding climate change dengue disease carrier disease transmission epidemic hidden Markov model human nonhuman population density population dispersal probability risk assessment seasonal population dynamics seasonal variation species extinction stochastic model temperature dependence yellow fever Aedes Animals Argentina Dengue Disease Outbreaks Humans Insect Vectors Models, Biological Models, Statistical Seasons Stochastic Processes Urban Population Aedes aegypti
description	We present a stochastic dynamical model for the transmission of dengue that takes into account seasonal and spatial dynamics of the vector Aedes aegypti. It describes disease dynamics triggered by the arrival of infected people in a city. We show that the probability of an epidemic outbreak depends on seasonal variation in temperature and on the availability of breeding sites. We also show that the arrival date of an infected human in a susceptible population dramatically affects the distribution of the final size of epidemics and that early outbreaks have a low probability. However, early outbreaks are likely to produce large epidemics because they have a longer time to evolve before the winter extinction of vectors. Our model could be used to estimate the risk and final size of epidemic outbreaks in regions with seasonal climatic variations. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
author	Otero, Marcelo Javier Solari, Hernán Gustavo
author_facet	Otero, Marcelo Javier Solari, Hernán Gustavo
author_sort	Otero, Marcelo Javier
title	Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito
title_short	Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito
title_full	Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito
title_fullStr	Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito
title_full_unstemmed	Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito
title_sort	stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by aedes aegypti mosquito
publishDate	2010
url	https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_00255564_v223_n1_p32_Otero http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_00255564_v223_n1_p32_Otero
work_keys_str_mv	AT oteromarcelojavier stochasticecoepidemiologicalmodelofdenguediseasetransmissionbyaedesaegyptimosquito AT solarihernangustavo stochasticecoepidemiologicalmodelofdenguediseasetransmissionbyaedesaegyptimosquito
_version_	1768546148224598016

Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito

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