Desarrollo sostenible, complejidad y anticipación del futuro

The article presents a systemic perspective for the consideration of the possibility and usefulness of attempting to anticipate the future of the socio-ecological systems (SES-fundamental units of analysis of the research of sustainable development from the local to the global) in the context of the...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: Gallopín, Carlos Gilberto
Formato: Artículo publishedVersion
Lenguaje:Español
Publicado: Universidad Nacional de Avellaneda. Secretaría de Investigación e Innovación Socioproductiva 2015
Materias:
Acceso en línea:http://rdd.undav.edu.ar/pdfs/pr36/pr36.pdf
Aporte de:RDD - Repositorio Documental y de Datos de la Universidad de Avellaneda (UNDAV) de Universidad Nacional de Avellaneda (UNDAV) Ver origen
Descripción
Sumario:The article presents a systemic perspective for the consideration of the possibility and usefulness of attempting to anticipate the future of the socio-ecological systems (SES-fundamental units of analysis of the research of sustainable development from the local to the global) in the context of their complexity and the changing world situation. The main sources of uncertainty are identified, as well as the challenges posed by the problematique of sustainable development to Science and Technology, and the implications to explore the possible future evolution or evolutions of the considered systems. Two of the most important tools used for the anticipation, the mathematical simulation models and the scenarios of the future, are compared identifying their strengths and weaknesses.