Projected impact of a reduction in sugar-sweetened beverage consumption on diabetes and cardiovascular disease in Argentina: A modeling study

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Background Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption is associated with obesity, diabetes, and hypertension. Argentina is one of the major consumers of SSBs per capita worldwide. Determining the impact of SSB reduction on health will inform policy debates. Methods and findings We used the Card...

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Autores principales: Salgado, Maria Victoria, Penko, Joanne, Fernández, Alicia, Konfino, Jonatan, Coxson, Pamela, Bibbins-Domingo, Kirsten, Mejía, Raúl M
Formato: Artículo
Lenguaje:en_US
Publicado: PLOS 2020
Materias:
Argentina
Bebidas Azucaradas
Enfermedades Cardiovasculares
Diabetes Mellitus
Acceso en línea:http://repositorio.cedes.org/handle/123456789/4551
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003224
https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1003224
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Respositorio Digital CRIS del CEDES - Centro de Estudios de Estado y Sociedad de Centro de Estudios de Estado y Sociedad (CEDES)
id I61-R167123456789-4551
record_format dspace
institution Centro de Estudios de Estado y Sociedad (CEDES)
institution_str I-61
repository_str R-167
collection Respositorio Digital CRIS del CEDES - Centro de Estudios de Estado y Sociedad
language en_US
orig_language_str_mv en_US
topic Argentina
Bebidas Azucaradas
Enfermedades Cardiovasculares
Diabetes Mellitus
spellingShingle Argentina
Bebidas Azucaradas
Enfermedades Cardiovasculares
Diabetes Mellitus
Salgado, Maria Victoria
Penko, Joanne
Fernández, Alicia
Konfino, Jonatan
Coxson, Pamela
Bibbins-Domingo, Kirsten
Mejía, Raúl M
Projected impact of a reduction in sugar-sweetened beverage consumption on diabetes and cardiovascular disease in Argentina: A modeling study
topic_facet Argentina
Bebidas Azucaradas
Enfermedades Cardiovasculares
Diabetes Mellitus
description Background Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption is associated with obesity, diabetes, and hypertension. Argentina is one of the major consumers of SSBs per capita worldwide. Determining the impact of SSB reduction on health will inform policy debates. Methods and findings We used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-Argentina (CVD Policy Model-Argentina), a local adaptation of a well-established computer simulation model that projects cardiovascular and mortality events for the population 35–94 years old, to estimate the impact of reducing SSB consumption on diabetes incidence, cardiovascular events, and mortality in Argentina during the period 2015–2024, using local demographic and consumption data. Given uncertainty regarding the exact amount of SSBs consumed by different age groups, we modeled 2 estimates of baseline consumption (low and high) under 2 different scenarios: a 10% and a 20% decrease in SSB consumption. We also included a range of caloric compensation in the model (0%, 39%, and 100%). We used Monte Carlo simulations to generate 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) around our primary outcome measures for each intervention scenario. Over the 2015–2024 period, a 10% reduction in SSBs with a caloric compensation of 39% is projected to reduce incident diabetes cases by 13,300 (95% UI 10,800–15,600 [low SSB consumption estimate]) to 27,700 cases (95% UI 22,400–32,400 [high SSB consumption estimate]), i.e., 1.7% and 3.6% fewer cases, respectively, compared to a scenario of no change in SSB consumption. It would also reduce myocardial infarctions by 2,500 (95% UI 2,200–2,800) to 5,100 (95% UI 4,500–5,700) events and all-cause deaths by 2,700 (95% UI 2,200–3,200) to 5,600 (95% UI 4,600–6,600) for “low” and “high” estimates of SSB intake, respectively. A 20% reduction in SSB consumption with 39% caloric compensation is projected to result in 26,200 (95% UI 21,200–30,600) to 53,800 (95% UI 43,900–62,700) fewer cases of diabetes, 4,800 (95% UI 4,200–5,300) to 10,000 (95% UI 8,800–11,200) fewer myocardial infarctions, and 5,200 (95% UI 4,300–6,200) to 11,000 (95% UI 9,100–13,100) fewer deaths. The largest reductions in diabetes and cardiovascular events were observed in the youngest age group modeled (35–44 years) for both men and women; additionally, more events could be avoided in men compared to women in all age groups. The main limitations of our study are the limited availability of SSB consumption data in Argentina and the fact that we were only able to model the possible benefits of the interventions for the population older than 34 years. Conclusions Our study finds that, even under conservative assumptions, a relatively small reduction in SSB consumption could lead to a substantial decrease in diabetes incidence, cardiovascular events, and mortality in Argentina.
format Artículo
author Salgado, Maria Victoria
Penko, Joanne
Fernández, Alicia
Konfino, Jonatan
Coxson, Pamela
Bibbins-Domingo, Kirsten
Mejía, Raúl M
author_facet Salgado, Maria Victoria
Penko, Joanne
Fernández, Alicia
Konfino, Jonatan
Coxson, Pamela
Bibbins-Domingo, Kirsten
Mejía, Raúl M
author_sort Salgado, Maria Victoria
title Projected impact of a reduction in sugar-sweetened beverage consumption on diabetes and cardiovascular disease in Argentina: A modeling study
title_short Projected impact of a reduction in sugar-sweetened beverage consumption on diabetes and cardiovascular disease in Argentina: A modeling study
title_full Projected impact of a reduction in sugar-sweetened beverage consumption on diabetes and cardiovascular disease in Argentina: A modeling study
title_fullStr Projected impact of a reduction in sugar-sweetened beverage consumption on diabetes and cardiovascular disease in Argentina: A modeling study
title_full_unstemmed Projected impact of a reduction in sugar-sweetened beverage consumption on diabetes and cardiovascular disease in Argentina: A modeling study
title_sort projected impact of a reduction in sugar-sweetened beverage consumption on diabetes and cardiovascular disease in argentina: a modeling study
publisher PLOS
publishDate 2020
url http://repositorio.cedes.org/handle/123456789/4551
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003224
https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1003224
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