Displacement risk in corn and soybean markets: The potential impact of alternative meat

Alternative meat (AltMeat), which includes plant-based and cultured meats, is an innovative and sustainable type of food that has gained attention in recent years. It is also a threat for the demand of animal meat and for the supply chain of crops used as animal feed. In 2022, 57% of global corn a...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Baldi, Florencia, Merener, Nicolás
Formato: Artículo publishedVersion
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: Development and Sustainability in Economics and Finance (e-ISSN: 2950-5240) 2025
Materias:
Producción alimentaria
Food production
Industria alimentaria
Food Industry
Industria Agropecuaria
agricultural industry
Supply chain
Alternative meat
Plant-based meat (PBM)
Cultured meat
Long term risk
Agricultural commodities
Agricultural supply chain
Acceso en línea:https://repositorio.utdt.edu/handle/20.500.13098/13328
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsef.2025.100046
Aporte de:
Repositorio Digital Universidad Torcuato Di Tella de Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
id I57-R163-20.500.13098-13328
record_format dspace
spelling I57-R163-20.500.13098-133282025-03-11T07:00:24Z Displacement risk in corn and soybean markets: The potential impact of alternative meat Baldi, Florencia Merener, Nicolás Producción alimentaria Food production Industria alimentaria Food Industry Industria Agropecuaria agricultural industry Supply chain Alternative meat Plant-based meat (PBM) Cultured meat Long term risk Agricultural commodities Agricultural supply chain Alternative meat (AltMeat), which includes plant-based and cultured meats, is an innovative and sustainable type of food that has gained attention in recent years. It is also a threat for the demand of animal meat and for the supply chain of crops used as animal feed. In 2022, 57% of global corn and 70% of global soybean production (as meal) were used as inputs for animal meat production. In this paper we aim to assess the crop market impact of an uncertain yet potentially significant shift towards AltMeat consumption and away from animal meat. We consider alternative models for feed crops and animal meat informed by production parameters and elasticity measures from the literature. We impose exogenous animal meat displacement shocks on top of an OECD baseline projection for 2032 with no AltMeat, and compute crop price shifts. We find that in the event of a −3% mean animal meat displacement, crop prices would average declines in the −10% to −18% range, with soybeans experiencing a sharper fall than corn. Permanent price shifts of this scale would be economically important. Corn and soybean supply chains in Brazil, the U.S., Argentina and Paraguay are at risk of technological displacement. Corn and soybean leading importers, such as China, might benefit from lower prices. Este documento se encuentra publicado en Development and Sustainability in Economics and Finance (e-ISSN: 2950-5240). Por motivos relacionados con los derechos de autor este documento solo puede ser consultado en la Biblioteca Di Tella. Para reservar una cita podés ponerte en contacto con repositorio@utdt.edu. 2025-03-10T16:48:05Z 2025-03-10T16:48:05Z 2025 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion https://repositorio.utdt.edu/handle/20.500.13098/13328 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsef.2025.100046 eng Development and Sustainability in Economics and Finance (e-ISSN: 2950-5240) info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess http://rightsstatements.org/page/InC/1.0/?language=es 12 p. application/pdf application/pdf Development and Sustainability in Economics and Finance (e-ISSN: 2950-5240)
institution Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
institution_str I-57
repository_str R-163
collection Repositorio Digital Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
language Inglés
orig_language_str_mv eng
topic Producción alimentaria
Food production
Industria alimentaria
Food Industry
Industria Agropecuaria
agricultural industry
Supply chain
Alternative meat
Plant-based meat (PBM)
Cultured meat
Long term risk
Agricultural commodities
Agricultural supply chain
spellingShingle Producción alimentaria
Food production
Industria alimentaria
Food Industry
Industria Agropecuaria
agricultural industry
Supply chain
Alternative meat
Plant-based meat (PBM)
Cultured meat
Long term risk
Agricultural commodities
Agricultural supply chain
Baldi, Florencia
Merener, Nicolás
Displacement risk in corn and soybean markets: The potential impact of alternative meat
topic_facet Producción alimentaria
Food production
Industria alimentaria
Food Industry
Industria Agropecuaria
agricultural industry
Supply chain
Alternative meat
Plant-based meat (PBM)
Cultured meat
Long term risk
Agricultural commodities
Agricultural supply chain
description Alternative meat (AltMeat), which includes plant-based and cultured meats, is an innovative and sustainable type of food that has gained attention in recent years. It is also a threat for the demand of animal meat and for the supply chain of crops used as animal feed. In 2022, 57% of global corn and 70% of global soybean production (as meal) were used as inputs for animal meat production. In this paper we aim to assess the crop market impact of an uncertain yet potentially significant shift towards AltMeat consumption and away from animal meat. We consider alternative models for feed crops and animal meat informed by production parameters and elasticity measures from the literature. We impose exogenous animal meat displacement shocks on top of an OECD baseline projection for 2032 with no AltMeat, and compute crop price shifts. We find that in the event of a −3% mean animal meat displacement, crop prices would average declines in the −10% to −18% range, with soybeans experiencing a sharper fall than corn. Permanent price shifts of this scale would be economically important. Corn and soybean supply chains in Brazil, the U.S., Argentina and Paraguay are at risk of technological displacement. Corn and soybean leading importers, such as China, might benefit from lower prices.
format Artículo
publishedVersion
author Baldi, Florencia
Merener, Nicolás
author_facet Baldi, Florencia
Merener, Nicolás
author_sort Baldi, Florencia
title Displacement risk in corn and soybean markets: The potential impact of alternative meat
title_short Displacement risk in corn and soybean markets: The potential impact of alternative meat
title_full Displacement risk in corn and soybean markets: The potential impact of alternative meat
title_fullStr Displacement risk in corn and soybean markets: The potential impact of alternative meat
title_full_unstemmed Displacement risk in corn and soybean markets: The potential impact of alternative meat
title_sort displacement risk in corn and soybean markets: the potential impact of alternative meat
publisher Development and Sustainability in Economics and Finance (e-ISSN: 2950-5240)
publishDate 2025
url https://repositorio.utdt.edu/handle/20.500.13098/13328
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsef.2025.100046
work_keys_str_mv AT baldiflorencia displacementriskincornandsoybeanmarketsthepotentialimpactofalternativemeat
AT merenernicolas displacementriskincornandsoybeanmarketsthepotentialimpactofalternativemeat
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