High-resolution NWP forecast precipitation comparison over complex terrain of the Sierras de Córdoba during RELAMPAGO-CACTI

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Sierras de Córdoba (Argentina) is characterized by the occurrence of extreme precipitation events during the austral warm season. Heavy precipitation in the region has a large societal impact, causing flash floods. This motivates the forecast performance evaluation of 24-hour accumulated precipitati...

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Autores principales: Casaretto, Gimena, Dillon, Maria Eugenia, Salio, Paola, Skaba García, Yanina, Nesbitt, Stephen W., Schumacher, Russ S., García, Carlos Marcelo, Catalini, Carlos Gastón
Formato: Artículo
Lenguaje:Español
Publicado: American Meteorological Society 2021
Materias:
GE Ciencias Ambientales
Q Ciencia (General)
Acceso en línea:http://pa.bibdigital.ucc.edu.ar/3312/1/A_Casaretto_Dillon_Salio.pdf
Aporte de:
Producción Académica Universidad Católica de Córdoba (UCCor) de Universidad Católica de Córdoba
id I38-R144-3312
record_format dspace
spelling I38-R144-33122025-04-08T20:51:07Z http://pa.bibdigital.ucc.edu.ar/3312/ High-resolution NWP forecast precipitation comparison over complex terrain of the Sierras de Córdoba during RELAMPAGO-CACTI Casaretto, Gimena Dillon, Maria Eugenia Salio, Paola Skaba García, Yanina Nesbitt, Stephen W. Schumacher, Russ S. García, Carlos Marcelo Catalini, Carlos Gastón GE Ciencias Ambientales Q Ciencia (General) Sierras de Córdoba (Argentina) is characterized by the occurrence of extreme precipitation events during the austral warm season. Heavy precipitation in the region has a large societal impact, causing flash floods. This motivates the forecast performance evaluation of 24-hour accumulated precipitation and vertical profiles of atmospheric variables from different numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with the final aim of helping water management in the region. The NWP models evaluated include the Global Forecast System (GFS) which parameterizes convection, and convection-permitting simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) configured by three institutions: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC), Colorado State University (CSU) and National Meteorological Service of Argentina (SMN). These models were verified with daily accumulated precipitation data from rain gauges and soundings during the RELAMPAGO-CACTI field campaign. Generally all configurations of the higher-resolution WRFs outperformed the lower-resolution GFS based on multiple metrics. Among the convectionpermitting WRF models, results varied with respect to rainfall threshold and forecast lead time, but the WRFUIUC mostly performed the best. However, elevation dependent biases existed among the models that may impact the use of the data for different applications. There is a dry (moist) bias in lower (upper) pressure levels which is most pronounced in the GFS. For Córdoba an overestimation of the northern flow forecasted by the NWP configurations at lower levels was encountered. These results show the importance of convection-permitting forecasts in this region, which should be complementary to the coarser-resolution global model forecasts to help various users and decision makers. American Meteorological Society 2021 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess application/pdf spa http://pa.bibdigital.ucc.edu.ar/3312/1/A_Casaretto_Dillon_Salio.pdf Casaretto, Gimena, Dillon, Maria Eugenia, Salio, Paola, Skaba García, Yanina, Nesbitt, Stephen W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0348-0452 <https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0348-0452>, Schumacher, Russ S., García, Carlos Marcelo ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4091-6756 <https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4091-6756> and Catalini, Carlos Gastón ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7453-8378 <https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7453-8378> (2021) High-resolution NWP forecast precipitation comparison over complex terrain of the Sierras de Córdoba during RELAMPAGO-CACTI. Weather and Forecasting, 37 (1). ISSN 0882-8156 https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/37/2/WAF-D-21-0006.1.xml info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0006.1
institution Universidad Católica de Córdoba
institution_str I-38
repository_str R-144
collection Producción Académica Universidad Católica de Córdoba (UCCor)
language Español
orig_language_str_mv spa
topic GE Ciencias Ambientales
Q Ciencia (General)
spellingShingle GE Ciencias Ambientales
Q Ciencia (General)
Casaretto, Gimena
Dillon, Maria Eugenia
Salio, Paola
Skaba García, Yanina
Nesbitt, Stephen W.
Schumacher, Russ S.
García, Carlos Marcelo
Catalini, Carlos Gastón
High-resolution NWP forecast precipitation comparison over complex terrain of the Sierras de Córdoba during RELAMPAGO-CACTI
topic_facet GE Ciencias Ambientales
Q Ciencia (General)
description Sierras de Córdoba (Argentina) is characterized by the occurrence of extreme precipitation events during the austral warm season. Heavy precipitation in the region has a large societal impact, causing flash floods. This motivates the forecast performance evaluation of 24-hour accumulated precipitation and vertical profiles of atmospheric variables from different numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with the final aim of helping water management in the region. The NWP models evaluated include the Global Forecast System (GFS) which parameterizes convection, and convection-permitting simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) configured by three institutions: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC), Colorado State University (CSU) and National Meteorological Service of Argentina (SMN). These models were verified with daily accumulated precipitation data from rain gauges and soundings during the RELAMPAGO-CACTI field campaign. Generally all configurations of the higher-resolution WRFs outperformed the lower-resolution GFS based on multiple metrics. Among the convectionpermitting WRF models, results varied with respect to rainfall threshold and forecast lead time, but the WRFUIUC mostly performed the best. However, elevation dependent biases existed among the models that may impact the use of the data for different applications. There is a dry (moist) bias in lower (upper) pressure levels which is most pronounced in the GFS. For Córdoba an overestimation of the northern flow forecasted by the NWP configurations at lower levels was encountered. These results show the importance of convection-permitting forecasts in this region, which should be complementary to the coarser-resolution global model forecasts to help various users and decision makers.
format Artículo
author Casaretto, Gimena
Dillon, Maria Eugenia
Salio, Paola
Skaba García, Yanina
Nesbitt, Stephen W.
Schumacher, Russ S.
García, Carlos Marcelo
Catalini, Carlos Gastón
author_facet Casaretto, Gimena
Dillon, Maria Eugenia
Salio, Paola
Skaba García, Yanina
Nesbitt, Stephen W.
Schumacher, Russ S.
García, Carlos Marcelo
Catalini, Carlos Gastón
author_sort Casaretto, Gimena
title High-resolution NWP forecast precipitation comparison over complex terrain of the Sierras de Córdoba during RELAMPAGO-CACTI
title_short High-resolution NWP forecast precipitation comparison over complex terrain of the Sierras de Córdoba during RELAMPAGO-CACTI
title_full High-resolution NWP forecast precipitation comparison over complex terrain of the Sierras de Córdoba during RELAMPAGO-CACTI
title_fullStr High-resolution NWP forecast precipitation comparison over complex terrain of the Sierras de Córdoba during RELAMPAGO-CACTI
title_full_unstemmed High-resolution NWP forecast precipitation comparison over complex terrain of the Sierras de Córdoba during RELAMPAGO-CACTI
title_sort high-resolution nwp forecast precipitation comparison over complex terrain of the sierras de córdoba during relampago-cacti
publisher American Meteorological Society
publishDate 2021
url http://pa.bibdigital.ucc.edu.ar/3312/1/A_Casaretto_Dillon_Salio.pdf
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