Monte Carlo estimation of the probability of causal contacts between communicating civilizations

In this work we address the problem of estimating the probabilities of causal contacts between civilizations in the Galaxy. We make no assumptions regarding the origin and evolution of intelligent life. We simply assume a network of causally connected nodes. These nodes refer somehow to intelligent...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Lares, Marcelo, Funes, José Gabriel, Gramajo, Luciana
Formato: Artículo
Lenguaje:Español
Publicado: Cambridge University Press 2020
Materias:
QB Astronomía
Acceso en línea:http://pa.bibdigital.ucc.edu.ar/3238/1/A_Lares_Funes_Gramajo.pdf
Aporte de:
Producción Académica Universidad Católica de Córdoba (UCCor) de Universidad Católica de Córdoba
id I38-R144-3238
record_format dspace
spelling I38-R144-32382025-04-10T21:39:11Z http://pa.bibdigital.ucc.edu.ar/3238/ Monte Carlo estimation of the probability of causal contacts between communicating civilizations Lares, Marcelo Funes, José Gabriel Gramajo, Luciana QB Astronomía In this work we address the problem of estimating the probabilities of causal contacts between civilizations in the Galaxy. We make no assumptions regarding the origin and evolution of intelligent life. We simply assume a network of causally connected nodes. These nodes refer somehow to intelligent agents with the capacity of receiving and emitting electromagnetic signals. Here we present a three-parametric statistical Monte Carlo model of the network in a simplified sketch of the Galaxy. Our goal, using Monte Carlo simulations, is to explore the parameter space and analyse the probabilities of causal contacts. We find that the odds to make a contact over decades of monitoring are low for most models, except for those of a galaxy densely populated with long-standing civilizations. We also find that the probability of causal contacts increases with the lifetime of civilizations more significantly than with the number of active civilizations. We show that the maximum probability of making a contact occurs when a civilization discovers the required communication technology. Cambridge University Press 2020-08-11 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess application/pdf spa http://pa.bibdigital.ucc.edu.ar/3238/1/A_Lares_Funes_Gramajo.pdf Lares, Marcelo, Funes, José Gabriel ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4304-2094 <https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4304-2094> and Gramajo, Luciana (2020) Monte Carlo estimation of the probability of causal contacts between communicating civilizations. International Journal of Astrobiology, 19 (5). pp. 393-405. ISSN 1473-5504 https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-journal-of-astrobiology/article/abs/monte-carlo-estimation-of-the-probability-of-causal-contacts-between-communicating-civilizations/E5CDEC05285A00DBA41E0A80C0F5FA03 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/https://doi.org/10.1017/S147355042000018X
institution Universidad Católica de Córdoba
institution_str I-38
repository_str R-144
collection Producción Académica Universidad Católica de Córdoba (UCCor)
language Español
orig_language_str_mv spa
topic QB Astronomía
spellingShingle QB Astronomía
Lares, Marcelo
Funes, José Gabriel
Gramajo, Luciana
Monte Carlo estimation of the probability of causal contacts between communicating civilizations
topic_facet QB Astronomía
description In this work we address the problem of estimating the probabilities of causal contacts between civilizations in the Galaxy. We make no assumptions regarding the origin and evolution of intelligent life. We simply assume a network of causally connected nodes. These nodes refer somehow to intelligent agents with the capacity of receiving and emitting electromagnetic signals. Here we present a three-parametric statistical Monte Carlo model of the network in a simplified sketch of the Galaxy. Our goal, using Monte Carlo simulations, is to explore the parameter space and analyse the probabilities of causal contacts. We find that the odds to make a contact over decades of monitoring are low for most models, except for those of a galaxy densely populated with long-standing civilizations. We also find that the probability of causal contacts increases with the lifetime of civilizations more significantly than with the number of active civilizations. We show that the maximum probability of making a contact occurs when a civilization discovers the required communication technology.
format Artículo
author Lares, Marcelo
Funes, José Gabriel
Gramajo, Luciana
author_facet Lares, Marcelo
Funes, José Gabriel
Gramajo, Luciana
author_sort Lares, Marcelo
title Monte Carlo estimation of the probability of causal contacts between communicating civilizations
title_short Monte Carlo estimation of the probability of causal contacts between communicating civilizations
title_full Monte Carlo estimation of the probability of causal contacts between communicating civilizations
title_fullStr Monte Carlo estimation of the probability of causal contacts between communicating civilizations
title_full_unstemmed Monte Carlo estimation of the probability of causal contacts between communicating civilizations
title_sort monte carlo estimation of the probability of causal contacts between communicating civilizations
publisher Cambridge University Press
publishDate 2020
url http://pa.bibdigital.ucc.edu.ar/3238/1/A_Lares_Funes_Gramajo.pdf
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AT funesjosegabriel montecarloestimationoftheprobabilityofcausalcontactsbetweencommunicatingcivilizations
AT gramajoluciana montecarloestimationoftheprobabilityofcausalcontactsbetweencommunicatingcivilizations
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