Expropriations, political risk and the business cycle

Fil: Der Meguerditchian, Nicolás Esteban. Universidad de San Andrés. Departamento de Economía; Argentina.

Guardado en:
Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: Der Meguerditchian, Nicolás Esteban
Otros Autores: Buera, Francisco J.
Formato: Tesis Tesis de maestría updatedVersion
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: Universidad de San Andrés. Departamento de Economía 2026
Acceso en línea:https://repositorio.udesa.edu.ar/handle/10908/26293
Aporte de:
Repositorio Digital - Universidad de San Andrés (UdeSa) de Universidad de San Andrés
id I37-R143-10908-26293
record_format dspace
spelling I37-R143-10908-262932026-04-09T03:01:06Z Expropriations, political risk and the business cycle Der Meguerditchian, Nicolás Esteban Buera, Francisco J. Fil: Der Meguerditchian, Nicolás Esteban. Universidad de San Andrés. Departamento de Economía; Argentina. This paper examines the macroeconomic consequences of oil sector expropriations in resource-dependent economies. Motivated by the nationalizations in Venezuela (2007) and Algeria (2006), I first provide empirical evidence showing that expropriations led to a persistent decline in oil production and a rise in sovereign risk. I then develop a dynamic small open economy model in which the government faces a regime-switching decision: whether to allow the foreign firm to operate under private contract or to nationalize the oil sector. Expropriations are more likely when oil prices rise, and when both the capital stock and the level of debt are high. The model reproduces key macroeconomic dynamics around expropriation events: capital stock declines before nationalization as the firm anticipates a regime switch, output drops sharply at the time of expropriation and continues to fall persistently. Consumption spikes temporarily as the government captures the full stream of oil revenues, while sovereign debt decreases in the aftermath due to tighter borrowing conditions. 2026-04-08T18:13:24Z 2026-04-08T18:13:24Z 2025-12 Tesis info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis info:ar-repo/semantics/tesis de maestría info:eu-repo/semantics/updatedVersion https://repositorio.udesa.edu.ar/handle/10908/26293 eng info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ application/pdf application/pdf Universidad de San Andrés. Departamento de Economía
institution Universidad de San Andrés
institution_str I-37
repository_str R-143
collection Repositorio Digital - Universidad de San Andrés (UdeSa)
language Inglés
description Fil: Der Meguerditchian, Nicolás Esteban. Universidad de San Andrés. Departamento de Economía; Argentina.
author2 Buera, Francisco J.
author_facet Buera, Francisco J.
Der Meguerditchian, Nicolás Esteban
format Tesis
Tesis de maestría
Tesis de maestría
updatedVersion
author Der Meguerditchian, Nicolás Esteban
spellingShingle Der Meguerditchian, Nicolás Esteban
Expropriations, political risk and the business cycle
author_sort Der Meguerditchian, Nicolás Esteban
title Expropriations, political risk and the business cycle
title_short Expropriations, political risk and the business cycle
title_full Expropriations, political risk and the business cycle
title_fullStr Expropriations, political risk and the business cycle
title_full_unstemmed Expropriations, political risk and the business cycle
title_sort expropriations, political risk and the business cycle
publisher Universidad de San Andrés. Departamento de Economía
publishDate 2026
url https://repositorio.udesa.edu.ar/handle/10908/26293
work_keys_str_mv AT dermeguerditchiannicolasesteban expropriationspoliticalriskandthebusinesscycle
_version_ 1862420884458831872

Ejemplares similares