No pay, no debt: domestic costs of sovereign defaults

Fil: Manzano Quiroga, Jeremías Ángel. Universidad de San Andrés. Departamento de Economía; Argentina.

Guardado en:
Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: Manzano Quiroga, Jeremías Ángel
Otros Autores: García-Cicco, Javier
Formato: Tesis Tesis de grado updatedVersion
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: Universidad de San Andrés. Departamento de Economía 2024
Acceso en línea:https://repositorio.udesa.edu.ar/handle/10908/24444
Aporte de:
Repositorio Digital - Universidad de San Andrés (UdeSa) de Universidad de San Andrés
id I37-R143-10908-24444
record_format dspace
spelling I37-R143-10908-244442025-01-20T15:22:29Z No pay, no debt: domestic costs of sovereign defaults Manzano Quiroga, Jeremías Ángel García-Cicco, Javier Fil: Manzano Quiroga, Jeremías Ángel. Universidad de San Andrés. Departamento de Economía; Argentina. This thesis investigates the domestic economic consequences of sovereign defaults by analyzing their impact on key macroeconomic variables, including GDP per capita, consumption, government expenditure, investment, exports, imports, unemployment, and inflation. Using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM), the study constructs counterfactual scenarios for defaulting countries to estimate the effect of defaults on economic outcomes. The results indicate that sovereign defaults generally have persistent negative effects, especially on GDP per capita, investment, and trade, with the adverse impacts often starting before the default due to anticipation effects. This is also consistent with the literature that suggests that defaults result from a series of negative shocks. However, some countries experienced effects that challenge the standard economic intuition. The study also found mixed results regarding unemployment and inconclusive effects on inflation. These findings highlight the complex and varied economic dynamics of sovereign defaults. While SCM proves to be a valuable tool, the presence of anticipation effects and data limitations suggest the need for further methodological refinements and deeper exploration of country-specific factors. This thesis contributes to the growing body of literature on the costs of sovereign defaults using the SCM and suggests directions for future research. 2024-12-19T12:15:38Z 2024-12-19T12:15:38Z 2024-09 Tesis info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis info:ar-repo/semantics/tesis de grado info:eu-repo/semantics/updatedVersion Manzano Quiroga, J. Á. (2024). No pay, no debt: domestic costs of sovereign defaults. [Tesis de grado, Universidad de San Andrés. Departamento de Economía]. Repositorio Digital San Andrés. https://repositorio.udesa.edu.ar/handle/10908/24444 https://repositorio.udesa.edu.ar/handle/10908/24444 eng info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ application/pdf application/pdf Universidad de San Andrés. Departamento de Economía
institution Universidad de San Andrés
institution_str I-37
repository_str R-143
collection Repositorio Digital - Universidad de San Andrés (UdeSa)
language Inglés
description Fil: Manzano Quiroga, Jeremías Ángel. Universidad de San Andrés. Departamento de Economía; Argentina.
author2 García-Cicco, Javier
author_facet García-Cicco, Javier
Manzano Quiroga, Jeremías Ángel
format Tesis
Tesis de grado
Tesis de grado
updatedVersion
author Manzano Quiroga, Jeremías Ángel
spellingShingle Manzano Quiroga, Jeremías Ángel
No pay, no debt: domestic costs of sovereign defaults
author_sort Manzano Quiroga, Jeremías Ángel
title No pay, no debt: domestic costs of sovereign defaults
title_short No pay, no debt: domestic costs of sovereign defaults
title_full No pay, no debt: domestic costs of sovereign defaults
title_fullStr No pay, no debt: domestic costs of sovereign defaults
title_full_unstemmed No pay, no debt: domestic costs of sovereign defaults
title_sort no pay, no debt: domestic costs of sovereign defaults
publisher Universidad de San Andrés. Departamento de Economía
publishDate 2024
url https://repositorio.udesa.edu.ar/handle/10908/24444
work_keys_str_mv AT manzanoquirogajeremiasangel nopaynodebtdomesticcostsofsovereigndefaults
_version_ 1824439262974574592

Ejemplares similares