Medium term growth forecasts : experts vs. simple models
Abstract: We compare the medium-term GDP growth forecasts generated by experts to those generated by simple models. This study analyzes a large set of forecasts that covers 48 countries from 1997 to 2016. Out-of-sample exercises indicate that no noticeable difference in performance is observed fo...
Guardado en:
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| Formato: | Artículo |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Elsevier
2019
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| Acceso en línea: | https://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/handle/123456789/8770 |
| Aporte de: |
| Sumario: | Abstract: We compare the medium-term GDP growth forecasts generated by experts to those
generated by simple models. This study analyzes a large set of forecasts that covers
48 countries from 1997 to 2016. Out-of-sample exercises indicate that no noticeable
difference in performance is observed for advanced economies. In contrast, in the case of
emerging economies, model forecasts perform better than expert forecasts. In addition,
similar patterns are found for a collection of forecasts from a different set of experts,
which suggests that the reported regularity is prevalent. Further analyses suggest that
the documented difference in performance can be explained by an optimism bias,
excessive reactions to innovations in growth trajectories, and insufficient responses to
the information contained in the current account balance. |
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