Medium term growth forecasts : experts vs. simple models

Abstract: We compare the medium-term GDP growth forecasts generated by experts to those generated by simple models. This study analyzes a large set of forecasts that covers 48 countries from 1997 to 2016. Out-of-sample exercises indicate that no noticeable difference in performance is observed fo...

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Autor principal: Aromí, José Daniel
Formato: Artículo
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: Elsevier 2019
Materias:
PBI
Acceso en línea:https://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/handle/123456789/8770
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id I33-R139123456789-8770
record_format dspace
institution Universidad Católica Argentina
institution_str I-33
repository_str R-139
collection Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Católica Argentina (UCA)
language Inglés
topic ECONOMIA
PBI
CRECIMIENTO ECONOMICO
spellingShingle ECONOMIA
PBI
CRECIMIENTO ECONOMICO
Aromí, José Daniel
Medium term growth forecasts : experts vs. simple models
topic_facet ECONOMIA
PBI
CRECIMIENTO ECONOMICO
description Abstract: We compare the medium-term GDP growth forecasts generated by experts to those generated by simple models. This study analyzes a large set of forecasts that covers 48 countries from 1997 to 2016. Out-of-sample exercises indicate that no noticeable difference in performance is observed for advanced economies. In contrast, in the case of emerging economies, model forecasts perform better than expert forecasts. In addition, similar patterns are found for a collection of forecasts from a different set of experts, which suggests that the reported regularity is prevalent. Further analyses suggest that the documented difference in performance can be explained by an optimism bias, excessive reactions to innovations in growth trajectories, and insufficient responses to the information contained in the current account balance.
format Artículo
author Aromí, José Daniel
author_facet Aromí, José Daniel
author_sort Aromí, José Daniel
title Medium term growth forecasts : experts vs. simple models
title_short Medium term growth forecasts : experts vs. simple models
title_full Medium term growth forecasts : experts vs. simple models
title_fullStr Medium term growth forecasts : experts vs. simple models
title_full_unstemmed Medium term growth forecasts : experts vs. simple models
title_sort medium term growth forecasts : experts vs. simple models
publisher Elsevier
publishDate 2019
url https://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/handle/123456789/8770
work_keys_str_mv AT aromijosedaniel mediumtermgrowthforecastsexpertsvssimplemodels
bdutipo_str Repositorios
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