Large current account deficits and neglected vulnerabilities

Abstract: Using a sample covering 50 advanced and emerging economies over 1990–2017, it is found that large current account deficits are followed by systematic negative surprises in economic growth. This regularity is verified both in the case of advanced economies and emerging economies. In additio...

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Autor principal: Aromí, José Daniel
Formato: Artículo
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: Palgrave Macmillan 2021
Materias:
CICLOS ECONOMICOS
MACROECONOMIA
FINAZAS INTERNACIONALES
COMERCIO INTERNACIONAL
CRECIMIENTO ECONOMICO
Acceso en línea:https://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/handle/123456789/12516
Aporte de:
Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Católica Argentina (UCA) de Universidad Católica Argentina
id I33-R139123456789-12516
record_format dspace
institution Universidad Católica Argentina
institution_str I-33
repository_str R-139
collection Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Católica Argentina (UCA)
language Inglés
topic CICLOS ECONOMICOS
MACROECONOMIA
FINAZAS INTERNACIONALES
COMERCIO INTERNACIONAL
CRECIMIENTO ECONOMICO
spellingShingle CICLOS ECONOMICOS
MACROECONOMIA
FINAZAS INTERNACIONALES
COMERCIO INTERNACIONAL
CRECIMIENTO ECONOMICO
Aromí, José Daniel
Large current account deficits and neglected vulnerabilities
topic_facet CICLOS ECONOMICOS
MACROECONOMIA
FINAZAS INTERNACIONALES
COMERCIO INTERNACIONAL
CRECIMIENTO ECONOMICO
description Abstract: Using a sample covering 50 advanced and emerging economies over 1990–2017, it is found that large current account deficits are followed by systematic negative surprises in economic growth. This regularity is verified both in the case of advanced economies and emerging economies. In addition, large current account deficits are reversed significantly faster than what forecasters anticipate and are followed by low asset returns and drops in sentiment. The findings are robust to changes in the specification and do not seem to be explained by efficient learning dynamics. This evidence indicates that analysts are unable to incorporate the negative information transmitted by large current account deficits and has implications for the understanding of past economic events and for the design of macro-prudential policies.
format Artículo
author Aromí, José Daniel
author_facet Aromí, José Daniel
author_sort Aromí, José Daniel
title Large current account deficits and neglected vulnerabilities
title_short Large current account deficits and neglected vulnerabilities
title_full Large current account deficits and neglected vulnerabilities
title_fullStr Large current account deficits and neglected vulnerabilities
title_full_unstemmed Large current account deficits and neglected vulnerabilities
title_sort large current account deficits and neglected vulnerabilities
publisher Palgrave Macmillan
publishDate 2021
url https://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/handle/123456789/12516
work_keys_str_mv AT aromijosedaniel largecurrentaccountdeficitsandneglectedvulnerabilities
bdutipo_str Repositorios
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