From rising temperature to rising health concerns: A study of climate change effects in ParaguayFrom rising temperature to rising health concerns: A study of climate change effects in Paraguay

Projected temperature increases in Paraguay are expected to significantly impact public health. This study assesses the current health burden from adverse temperature conditions using mortality and morbidity data, and estimates future consequences under various climate models and emissions scenari...

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Autores principales: Schulz Antipa, Paulina, García Witulski, Christian Martín, Conte Grand, Mariana, Rabassa, Mariano Javier
Formato: Artículo
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: Elsevier 2024
Materias:
MORTALIDAD
CAMBIO CLIMATICO
HOSPITALIZACIONES
TEMPERATURA AMBIENTAL
SALUD PUBLICA
Acceso en línea:https://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/handle/123456789/19092
Aporte de:
Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Católica Argentina (UCA) de Universidad Católica Argentina
id I33-R139-123456789-19092
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spelling I33-R139-123456789-190922024-11-26T05:02:23Z From rising temperature to rising health concerns: A study of climate change effects in ParaguayFrom rising temperature to rising health concerns: A study of climate change effects in Paraguay Schulz Antipa, Paulina García Witulski, Christian Martín Conte Grand, Mariana Rabassa, Mariano Javier MORTALIDAD CAMBIO CLIMATICO HOSPITALIZACIONES TEMPERATURA AMBIENTAL SALUD PUBLICA Projected temperature increases in Paraguay are expected to significantly impact public health. This study assesses the current health burden from adverse temperature conditions using mortality and morbidity data, and estimates future consequences under various climate models and emissions scenarios. According to the Global Burden of Disease, non-optimal temperatures caused approximately 640 deaths in Paraguay in 2019, 1.6% of total mortality. Cardiovascular diseases have the highest mortality rates, while infectious diseases are most impacted by heat exposure. Using panel data from 2015 to 2019, our econometric model suggests that non-optimal temperatures result in approximately 2,013 hospitalizations and 157,300 doctor visits annually within the public health system, representing 0.94% of hospitalizations and 1.97% of doctor visits. Our morbidity analysis reveals that seniors are more affected by higher-than-optimal temperatures, with hospitalizations among men and doctor visits for both genders increasing during high temperatures. To project future health burdens, we employ a comparative risk assessment for mortality estimation and applied our econometric model for morbidity evaluation. Comparing 2020 to 2050, we project an average increase in the mortality rate attributable to non-optimal temperatures between 1.5% and 21.6%, depending on the climate scenario. Hospitalizations are expected to double and doctor visits to triple during this period under the worst climate projections. 2024-11-25T21:30:18Z 2024-11-25T21:30:18Z 2024 Artículo 1757-7802 (online) https://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/handle/123456789/19092 10.1016/j.rspp.2024.100139 eng Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ application/pdf Paraguay Elsevier Regional Science Policy & Practice Volume. 2024, 16 (12)
institution Universidad Católica Argentina
institution_str I-33
repository_str R-139
collection Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Católica Argentina (UCA)
language Inglés
topic MORTALIDAD
CAMBIO CLIMATICO
HOSPITALIZACIONES
TEMPERATURA AMBIENTAL
SALUD PUBLICA
spellingShingle MORTALIDAD
CAMBIO CLIMATICO
HOSPITALIZACIONES
TEMPERATURA AMBIENTAL
SALUD PUBLICA
Schulz Antipa, Paulina
García Witulski, Christian Martín
Conte Grand, Mariana
Rabassa, Mariano Javier
From rising temperature to rising health concerns: A study of climate change effects in ParaguayFrom rising temperature to rising health concerns: A study of climate change effects in Paraguay
topic_facet MORTALIDAD
CAMBIO CLIMATICO
HOSPITALIZACIONES
TEMPERATURA AMBIENTAL
SALUD PUBLICA
description Projected temperature increases in Paraguay are expected to significantly impact public health. This study assesses the current health burden from adverse temperature conditions using mortality and morbidity data, and estimates future consequences under various climate models and emissions scenarios. According to the Global Burden of Disease, non-optimal temperatures caused approximately 640 deaths in Paraguay in 2019, 1.6% of total mortality. Cardiovascular diseases have the highest mortality rates, while infectious diseases are most impacted by heat exposure. Using panel data from 2015 to 2019, our econometric model suggests that non-optimal temperatures result in approximately 2,013 hospitalizations and 157,300 doctor visits annually within the public health system, representing 0.94% of hospitalizations and 1.97% of doctor visits. Our morbidity analysis reveals that seniors are more affected by higher-than-optimal temperatures, with hospitalizations among men and doctor visits for both genders increasing during high temperatures. To project future health burdens, we employ a comparative risk assessment for mortality estimation and applied our econometric model for morbidity evaluation. Comparing 2020 to 2050, we project an average increase in the mortality rate attributable to non-optimal temperatures between 1.5% and 21.6%, depending on the climate scenario. Hospitalizations are expected to double and doctor visits to triple during this period under the worst climate projections.
format Artículo
author Schulz Antipa, Paulina
García Witulski, Christian Martín
Conte Grand, Mariana
Rabassa, Mariano Javier
author_facet Schulz Antipa, Paulina
García Witulski, Christian Martín
Conte Grand, Mariana
Rabassa, Mariano Javier
author_sort Schulz Antipa, Paulina
title From rising temperature to rising health concerns: A study of climate change effects in ParaguayFrom rising temperature to rising health concerns: A study of climate change effects in Paraguay
title_short From rising temperature to rising health concerns: A study of climate change effects in ParaguayFrom rising temperature to rising health concerns: A study of climate change effects in Paraguay
title_full From rising temperature to rising health concerns: A study of climate change effects in ParaguayFrom rising temperature to rising health concerns: A study of climate change effects in Paraguay
title_fullStr From rising temperature to rising health concerns: A study of climate change effects in ParaguayFrom rising temperature to rising health concerns: A study of climate change effects in Paraguay
title_full_unstemmed From rising temperature to rising health concerns: A study of climate change effects in ParaguayFrom rising temperature to rising health concerns: A study of climate change effects in Paraguay
title_sort from rising temperature to rising health concerns: a study of climate change effects in paraguayfrom rising temperature to rising health concerns: a study of climate change effects in paraguay
publisher Elsevier
publishDate 2024
url https://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/handle/123456789/19092
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