Low-carbon transition and macroeconomic vulnerabilities: A multidimensional approach in tracing vulnerabilities and its application in the case of Colombia

The transition to a low-carbon and climate resilient economy is a process of heavy restructuring of the productive network, during which sunset industries are in decline or even disappear, while sunrise industries emerge and flourish. This process affects all aspects of the economy: the demand and t...

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Autores principales:	Moreno, Alvaro, Guevara, Diego, Andrade, Jhan, Pierros, Christos, Godin, Antoine, Yilmaz, Sakir Devrim, Valdecantos, Sebastián
Publicado:	Taylor & Francis 2024
Acceso en línea:	https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/4306/
Aporte de:	Nulan - Fac.Cs.Económicas (UNMdP) de Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata (UNMdP)

id	I29-R135-4306
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spelling	I29-R135-43062025-05-14T12:47:22Z Low-carbon transition and macroeconomic vulnerabilities: A multidimensional approach in tracing vulnerabilities and its application in the case of Colombia Moreno, Alvaro Guevara, Diego Andrade, Jhan Pierros, Christos Godin, Antoine Yilmaz, Sakir Devrim Valdecantos, Sebastián The transition to a low-carbon and climate resilient economy is a process of heavy restructuring of the productive network, during which sunset industries are in decline or even disappear, while sunrise industries emerge and flourish. This process affects all aspects of the economy: the demand and the supply side, the public and the private sector, the financial structure and the informal economy. In this article, we propose a holistic framework that assesses the macroeconomic vulnerability that emerges from a low-carbon transition, especially in developing economies. We consider vulnerability as a multidimensional phenomenon and, thus, pay attention to all fiscal, social, monetary, financial and external dimensions of the economy. We, then apply this framework to the Colombian economy. We use indicative variables of vulnerability, in all its aspects, and a stock-flow consistent growth model in order to monitor their evolution across time. We consider two scenarios related to a reduction of real fossil fuel exports of Colombia and a global rise in interest rates. Results indicate that the more delayed is the global transition, the higher the vulnerability of the Colombian economy. Similarly, global monetary tightening becomes an obstacle in the transition process, as it induces vulnerability stemming from the financial and external side of the economy. Taylor & Francis 2024 https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/4306/ International Journal of Political Economy, 53(1), 43-66. ISSN 0891-1916. 10.1080/08911916.2024.2318995 <https://doi.org/10.1080/08911916.2024.2318995> Colombia info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1080/08911916.2024.2318995
institution	Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata (UNMdP)
institution_str	I-29
repository_str	R-135
collection	Nulan - Fac.Cs.Económicas (UNMdP)
description	The transition to a low-carbon and climate resilient economy is a process of heavy restructuring of the productive network, during which sunset industries are in decline or even disappear, while sunrise industries emerge and flourish. This process affects all aspects of the economy: the demand and the supply side, the public and the private sector, the financial structure and the informal economy. In this article, we propose a holistic framework that assesses the macroeconomic vulnerability that emerges from a low-carbon transition, especially in developing economies. We consider vulnerability as a multidimensional phenomenon and, thus, pay attention to all fiscal, social, monetary, financial and external dimensions of the economy. We, then apply this framework to the Colombian economy. We use indicative variables of vulnerability, in all its aspects, and a stock-flow consistent growth model in order to monitor their evolution across time. We consider two scenarios related to a reduction of real fossil fuel exports of Colombia and a global rise in interest rates. Results indicate that the more delayed is the global transition, the higher the vulnerability of the Colombian economy. Similarly, global monetary tightening becomes an obstacle in the transition process, as it induces vulnerability stemming from the financial and external side of the economy.
author	Moreno, Alvaro Guevara, Diego Andrade, Jhan Pierros, Christos Godin, Antoine Yilmaz, Sakir Devrim Valdecantos, Sebastián
spellingShingle	Moreno, Alvaro Guevara, Diego Andrade, Jhan Pierros, Christos Godin, Antoine Yilmaz, Sakir Devrim Valdecantos, Sebastián Low-carbon transition and macroeconomic vulnerabilities: A multidimensional approach in tracing vulnerabilities and its application in the case of Colombia
author_facet	Moreno, Alvaro Guevara, Diego Andrade, Jhan Pierros, Christos Godin, Antoine Yilmaz, Sakir Devrim Valdecantos, Sebastián
author_sort	Moreno, Alvaro
title	Low-carbon transition and macroeconomic vulnerabilities: A multidimensional approach in tracing vulnerabilities and its application in the case of Colombia
title_short	Low-carbon transition and macroeconomic vulnerabilities: A multidimensional approach in tracing vulnerabilities and its application in the case of Colombia
title_full	Low-carbon transition and macroeconomic vulnerabilities: A multidimensional approach in tracing vulnerabilities and its application in the case of Colombia
title_fullStr	Low-carbon transition and macroeconomic vulnerabilities: A multidimensional approach in tracing vulnerabilities and its application in the case of Colombia
title_full_unstemmed	Low-carbon transition and macroeconomic vulnerabilities: A multidimensional approach in tracing vulnerabilities and its application in the case of Colombia
title_sort	low-carbon transition and macroeconomic vulnerabilities: a multidimensional approach in tracing vulnerabilities and its application in the case of colombia
publisher	Taylor & Francis
publishDate	2024
url	https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/4306/
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Low-carbon transition and macroeconomic vulnerabilities: A multidimensional approach in tracing vulnerabilities and its application in the case of Colombia

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