The green transition dilemma: The impossible (?) quest for prosperity of South American economies

This paper explores the tensions that the transition toward a zero-carbon economy entails for countries relying on natural resources exploitation as the main drivers of (net) exports, as is the case of most South American economies. Given their relatively low diversification and high technology gaps...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: Valdecantos, Sebastián
Formato: Documento de trabajo publishedVersion
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: AFD 2023
Materias:
Transición Energética
Medio Ambiente
Balanza de Pagos
Acceso en línea:https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/4081/
https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/4081/1/valdecantos-2023.pdf
Aporte de:
Nulan - Fac.Cs.Económicas (UNMdP) de Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata (UNMdP)
id I29-R135-4081
record_format dspace
spelling I29-R135-40812024-04-30T14:04:45Z The green transition dilemma: The impossible (?) quest for prosperity of South American economies Valdecantos, Sebastián This paper explores the tensions that the transition toward a zero-carbon economy entails for countries relying on natural resources exploitation as the main drivers of (net) exports, as is the case of most South American economies. Given their relatively low diversification and high technology gaps compared to advanced economies, attaining higher prosperity levels driven by sustained economic growth has recurrently been hampered by balance of payments crises. Using a simple long-run demand-led theoretical model with balance of payments constrained growth we show that if the structural limitations in their productive structure are not overcome, the decarbonization of the economy, be it exogenously imposed by the rest of the world or sovereignly decided by each South American country, will be exposed to the dilemma of increasing growth or reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Underpinning this dilemma is the essential role of exports and their associated carbon intensity. Finally, we show that to solve this green transition dilemma, even a process of structural change like the one proposed by the old Latin American structuralist school might not be sufficient - it is only through a "big environmental push" that the long-lastingly desired prosperity of South American countries can cease to be an impossible quest. AFD 2023-02 https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/4081/ application/pdf eng https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/4081/1/valdecantos-2023.pdf https://www.afd.fr/sites/afd/files/2023-02-04-19-44/The%20Green%20Transition%20Dilemma.pdf América del Sur info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper info:ar-repo/semantics/documento de trabajo info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Fil: Valdecantos, Sebastián. Aalborg University Business School; Denmark. Transición Energética Medio Ambiente Balanza de Pagos info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es
institution Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata (UNMdP)
institution_str I-29
repository_str R-135
collection Nulan - Fac.Cs.Económicas (UNMdP)
language Inglés
orig_language_str_mv eng
topic Transición Energética
Medio Ambiente
Balanza de Pagos
spellingShingle Transición Energética
Medio Ambiente
Balanza de Pagos
Valdecantos, Sebastián
The green transition dilemma: The impossible (?) quest for prosperity of South American economies
topic_facet Transición Energética
Medio Ambiente
Balanza de Pagos
description This paper explores the tensions that the transition toward a zero-carbon economy entails for countries relying on natural resources exploitation as the main drivers of (net) exports, as is the case of most South American economies. Given their relatively low diversification and high technology gaps compared to advanced economies, attaining higher prosperity levels driven by sustained economic growth has recurrently been hampered by balance of payments crises. Using a simple long-run demand-led theoretical model with balance of payments constrained growth we show that if the structural limitations in their productive structure are not overcome, the decarbonization of the economy, be it exogenously imposed by the rest of the world or sovereignly decided by each South American country, will be exposed to the dilemma of increasing growth or reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Underpinning this dilemma is the essential role of exports and their associated carbon intensity. Finally, we show that to solve this green transition dilemma, even a process of structural change like the one proposed by the old Latin American structuralist school might not be sufficient - it is only through a "big environmental push" that the long-lastingly desired prosperity of South American countries can cease to be an impossible quest.
format Documento de trabajo
Documento de trabajo
publishedVersion
author Valdecantos, Sebastián
author_facet Valdecantos, Sebastián
author_sort Valdecantos, Sebastián
title The green transition dilemma: The impossible (?) quest for prosperity of South American economies
title_short The green transition dilemma: The impossible (?) quest for prosperity of South American economies
title_full The green transition dilemma: The impossible (?) quest for prosperity of South American economies
title_fullStr The green transition dilemma: The impossible (?) quest for prosperity of South American economies
title_full_unstemmed The green transition dilemma: The impossible (?) quest for prosperity of South American economies
title_sort green transition dilemma: the impossible (?) quest for prosperity of south american economies
publisher AFD
publishDate 2023
url https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/4081/
https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/4081/1/valdecantos-2023.pdf
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