Variability of low monthly rainfall in La Plata Basin

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Water resources management and agriculture planning models require a statistical synthesis of some rainfall features, in particular those representing dry atmospheric conditions. The bigger the basin, the more important these features become, as is the case of the La Plata Basin (LPB). This paper fo...

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Autores principales: Penalba, O.C., Vargas, W.M.
Formato: Artículo publishedVersion
Publicado: 2008
Materias:
Distribution
Management
Rainfall
Variability
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_13504827_v15_n3_p313_Penalba
http://repositoriouba.sisbi.uba.ar/gsdl/cgi-bin/library.cgi?a=d&c=artiaex&d=paper_13504827_v15_n3_p313_Penalba_oai
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Repositorio Digital de la Universidad de Buenos Aires (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires
id I28-R145-paper_13504827_v15_n3_p313_Penalba_oai
record_format dspace
spelling I28-R145-paper_13504827_v15_n3_p313_Penalba_oai2020-10-19 Penalba, O.C. Vargas, W.M. 2008 Water resources management and agriculture planning models require a statistical synthesis of some rainfall features, in particular those representing dry atmospheric conditions. The bigger the basin, the more important these features become, as is the case of the La Plata Basin (LPB). This paper focuses on the precipitation variability in the large LPB in South America, analysing the number of months per year with low rainfall and the sequences of months with low rainfall, their theoretical distributions and stability, which are needed as input for the models mentioned above. Long time series are used to analyse the low-frequency variability and the relative importance of decadal variability. Changes are evident in the number of months per year with low rainfall, with a decrease of about 20% in the period after 1970. Theoretical distribution models (binomial and geometric) are fitted to these empirical distributions, and the regional variability of the fitting parameters is shown. In practically the entire region, the goodness-of-fit of the two theoretical models considered is statistically satisfactory. The temporal variability of the parameters of the theoretical binomial (p) and geometric (α) distributions is analysed, in excluding sub-periods of 10 and 5 years, respectively. The results show low-frequency variability overlapped on a decadal variability, with low homogeneous regional behaviour. The distribution models have proven to be efficient for frequency adjustments of the rainfall properties studied. These results are an acceptable and necessary input to decision models in LPB. They also make it possible to infer effects of climate change. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society. Fil:Penalba, O.C. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Vargas, W.M. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_13504827_v15_n3_p313_Penalba info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar Meteorol. Appl. 2008;15(3):313-323 Distribution Management Rainfall Variability Variability of low monthly rainfall in La Plata Basin info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://repositoriouba.sisbi.uba.ar/gsdl/cgi-bin/library.cgi?a=d&c=artiaex&d=paper_13504827_v15_n3_p313_Penalba_oai
institution Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str I-28
repository_str R-145
collection Repositorio Digital de la Universidad de Buenos Aires (UBA)
topic Distribution
Management
Rainfall
Variability
spellingShingle Distribution
Management
Rainfall
Variability
Penalba, O.C.
Vargas, W.M.
Variability of low monthly rainfall in La Plata Basin
topic_facet Distribution
Management
Rainfall
Variability
description Water resources management and agriculture planning models require a statistical synthesis of some rainfall features, in particular those representing dry atmospheric conditions. The bigger the basin, the more important these features become, as is the case of the La Plata Basin (LPB). This paper focuses on the precipitation variability in the large LPB in South America, analysing the number of months per year with low rainfall and the sequences of months with low rainfall, their theoretical distributions and stability, which are needed as input for the models mentioned above. Long time series are used to analyse the low-frequency variability and the relative importance of decadal variability. Changes are evident in the number of months per year with low rainfall, with a decrease of about 20% in the period after 1970. Theoretical distribution models (binomial and geometric) are fitted to these empirical distributions, and the regional variability of the fitting parameters is shown. In practically the entire region, the goodness-of-fit of the two theoretical models considered is statistically satisfactory. The temporal variability of the parameters of the theoretical binomial (p) and geometric (α) distributions is analysed, in excluding sub-periods of 10 and 5 years, respectively. The results show low-frequency variability overlapped on a decadal variability, with low homogeneous regional behaviour. The distribution models have proven to be efficient for frequency adjustments of the rainfall properties studied. These results are an acceptable and necessary input to decision models in LPB. They also make it possible to infer effects of climate change. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society.
format Artículo
Artículo
publishedVersion
author Penalba, O.C.
Vargas, W.M.
author_facet Penalba, O.C.
Vargas, W.M.
author_sort Penalba, O.C.
title Variability of low monthly rainfall in La Plata Basin
title_short Variability of low monthly rainfall in La Plata Basin
title_full Variability of low monthly rainfall in La Plata Basin
title_fullStr Variability of low monthly rainfall in La Plata Basin
title_full_unstemmed Variability of low monthly rainfall in La Plata Basin
title_sort variability of low monthly rainfall in la plata basin
publishDate 2008
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_13504827_v15_n3_p313_Penalba
http://repositoriouba.sisbi.uba.ar/gsdl/cgi-bin/library.cgi?a=d&c=artiaex&d=paper_13504827_v15_n3_p313_Penalba_oai
work_keys_str_mv AT penalbaoc variabilityoflowmonthlyrainfallinlaplatabasin
AT vargaswm variabilityoflowmonthlyrainfallinlaplatabasin
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