External shocks and inflationary pressures in Argentina: a post-keynesian-structuralist empirical approach
We examine the empirical effects of two external shocks that trigger inflationary pressures in Argentina. The first corresponds to a shock in the international prices of agricultural commodities exported by this country. The second external shock affects the nominal exchange rate ($/U$S). Through th...
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Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política (IIEP UBA-CONICET)
2023
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| Acceso en línea: | https://ojs.economicas.uba.ar/DT-IIEP/article/view/2564 https://repositoriouba.sisbi.uba.ar/gsdl/cgi-bin/library.cgi?a=d&c=dociiep&d=2564_oai |
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I28-R145-2564_oai2026-02-09 Montes-Rojas, Gabriel Toledo, Fernando 2023-02-07 We examine the empirical effects of two external shocks that trigger inflationary pressures in Argentina. The first corresponds to a shock in the international prices of agricultural commodities exported by this country. The second external shock affects the nominal exchange rate ($/U$S). Through the estimation of a quarterly VAR with directional quantiles model for the 2004-2019 period, we show how the pass-through from these external shocks to the inflation rate operates asymmetrically and mainly through increments in nominal wages. We estimate that an external shock in the international agricultural commodities prices exported by Argentina engenders a pass-through of 10%, vis-Á -vis a shock in the nominal exchange rate with a pass-through of 25%. We explain these results highlighting the relevance of the class struggle as a key inflationary transmission mechanism, in line with Post-Keynesian-Structuralist conflicting claims models of inflation. These empirical results pose significant challenges for economic policy design, particularly pondering the adoption of measures that aim to decouple the potentially disruptive effects of these external shocks on inflationary pressures in Argentina. Se examinan los efectos empíricos de dos shocks externos que desencadenan presiones inflacionarias en Argentina. El primer shock involucra los precios internacionales de los productos básicos agrícolas exportados por el país. El segundo shock afecta el tipo de cambio nominal ($/U$S). Mediante la estimación de modelos VAR con quintiles direccionados (VARQD) para el período 2004Q1-2019Q4, se advierte cómo el pass-through de estos shocks a la tasa de inflación opera de manera asimétrica y se manifiesta principalmente a través de incrementos en los salarios nominales. Se estima que un shock en los precios internacionales de las materias primas agrícolas exportadas por Argentina genera un pass-through del 10%, frente a un shock en el tipo de cambio nominal con un pass-through del 25%. Se interpretan estos resultados resaltando la relevancia del conflicto distributivo como un mecanismo clave de transmisión inflacionaria, en línea con ciertos modelos poskeynesianos-estructuralistas (PK-E). Estos hallazgos plantean importantes desafíos para el diseño de la política económica, en particular considerando la adopción de medidas que tengan como objetivo desvincular los efectos potencialmente disruptivos de los shocks externos sobre las presiones inflacionarias en Argentina. application/pdf https://ojs.economicas.uba.ar/DT-IIEP/article/view/2564 spa Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política (IIEP UBA-CONICET) https://ojs.economicas.uba.ar/DT-IIEP/article/view/2564/3304 Derechos de autor 2023 Documentos de trabajo del Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política Documentos de trabajo del Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política; Núm. 64 (2021): Shocks externos y tensiones inflacionarias en Argentina: una aproximación empírica poskeynesiana-estructuralista Working Papers series at Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política; No. 64 (2021): External shocks and inflationary pressures in Argentina a post-keynesian-structuralist empirical approach 2451-5728 Shocks externos Precio internacional de commodities de exportación Tipo de cambio nominal Salarios Conflicto distributivo Tasa de inflación Argentina Modelos VAR External shocks International agriculture commodities prices Nominal exchange rate Wages Conflicting claims models of inflation Argentina VAR models External shocks and inflationary pressures in Argentina: a post-keynesian-structuralist empirical approach Shocks externos y tensiones inflacionarias en Argentina:: una aproximación empírica poskeynesiana-estructuralista info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion https://repositoriouba.sisbi.uba.ar/gsdl/cgi-bin/library.cgi?a=d&c=dociiep&d=2564_oai |
| institution |
Universidad de Buenos Aires |
| institution_str |
I-28 |
| repository_str |
R-145 |
| collection |
Repositorio Digital de la Universidad de Buenos Aires (UBA) |
| language |
Español |
| orig_language_str_mv |
spa |
| topic |
Shocks externos Precio internacional de commodities de exportación Tipo de cambio nominal Salarios Conflicto distributivo Tasa de inflación Argentina Modelos VAR External shocks International agriculture commodities prices Nominal exchange rate Wages Conflicting claims models of inflation Argentina VAR models |
| spellingShingle |
Shocks externos Precio internacional de commodities de exportación Tipo de cambio nominal Salarios Conflicto distributivo Tasa de inflación Argentina Modelos VAR External shocks International agriculture commodities prices Nominal exchange rate Wages Conflicting claims models of inflation Argentina VAR models Montes-Rojas, Gabriel Toledo, Fernando External shocks and inflationary pressures in Argentina: a post-keynesian-structuralist empirical approach |
| topic_facet |
Shocks externos Precio internacional de commodities de exportación Tipo de cambio nominal Salarios Conflicto distributivo Tasa de inflación Argentina Modelos VAR External shocks International agriculture commodities prices Nominal exchange rate Wages Conflicting claims models of inflation Argentina VAR models |
| description |
We examine the empirical effects of two external shocks that trigger inflationary pressures in Argentina. The first corresponds to a shock in the international prices of agricultural commodities exported by this country. The second external shock affects the nominal exchange rate ($/U$S). Through the estimation of a quarterly VAR with directional quantiles model for the 2004-2019 period, we show how the pass-through from these external shocks to the inflation rate operates asymmetrically and mainly through increments in nominal wages. We estimate that an external shock in the international agricultural commodities prices exported by Argentina engenders a pass-through of 10%, vis-Á -vis a shock in the nominal exchange rate with a pass-through of 25%. We explain these results highlighting the relevance of the class struggle as a key inflationary transmission mechanism, in line with Post-Keynesian-Structuralist conflicting claims models of inflation. These empirical results pose significant challenges for economic policy design, particularly pondering the adoption of measures that aim to decouple the potentially disruptive effects of these external shocks on inflationary pressures in Argentina. |
| format |
Artículo publishedVersion |
| author |
Montes-Rojas, Gabriel Toledo, Fernando |
| author_facet |
Montes-Rojas, Gabriel Toledo, Fernando |
| author_sort |
Montes-Rojas, Gabriel |
| title |
External shocks and inflationary pressures in Argentina: a post-keynesian-structuralist empirical approach |
| title_short |
External shocks and inflationary pressures in Argentina: a post-keynesian-structuralist empirical approach |
| title_full |
External shocks and inflationary pressures in Argentina: a post-keynesian-structuralist empirical approach |
| title_fullStr |
External shocks and inflationary pressures in Argentina: a post-keynesian-structuralist empirical approach |
| title_full_unstemmed |
External shocks and inflationary pressures in Argentina: a post-keynesian-structuralist empirical approach |
| title_sort |
external shocks and inflationary pressures in argentina: a post-keynesian-structuralist empirical approach |
| publisher |
Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política (IIEP UBA-CONICET) |
| publishDate |
2023 |
| url |
https://ojs.economicas.uba.ar/DT-IIEP/article/view/2564 https://repositoriouba.sisbi.uba.ar/gsdl/cgi-bin/library.cgi?a=d&c=dociiep&d=2564_oai |
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| _version_ |
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