On the (in)consistency of re modeling

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Rational Expectations (RE) is typically interpreted as: (i) an equivalence between the probability distribution of future outcomes informing agents´ decisions and the objective distributions; or: (ii) a correspondence between the expectations of agents and those generated by professionally validate...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Heymann, Daniel, Pascuini, Paulo
Formato: Artículo publishedVersion
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política (IIEP UBA-CONICET) 2022
Materias:
Macroeconomía
Expectativas Racionales
Modelo Consistencia
Macroeconomics
Rational Expectations
Model Consistency
Acceso en línea:https://ojs.economicas.uba.ar/DT-IIEP/article/view/2471
https://repositoriouba.sisbi.uba.ar/gsdl/cgi-bin/library.cgi?a=d&c=dociiep&d=2471_oai
Aporte de:
Repositorio Digital de la Universidad de Buenos Aires (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires
Descripción
Sumario:Rational Expectations (RE) is typically interpreted as: (i) an equivalence between the probability distribution of future outcomes informing agents´ decisions and the objective distributions; or: (ii) a correspondence between the expectations of agents and those generated by professionally validated models. Both definitions differ, unless absolute validity is counterfactually attributed fallible models built by economists. Another ambiguity arises with the model-consistency notion, since what is considered relevant theory has varied over time and across researchers, especially in Macroeconomics. These issues affect the logic and significance of analytical procedures for treating expectations, and seem particularly pertinent when studying crises.

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