On the (in)consistency of re modeling
Rational Expectations (RE) is typically interpreted as: (i) an equivalence between the probability distribution of future outcomes informing agents´ decisions and the objective distributions; or: (ii) a correspondence between the expectations of agents and those generated by professionally validate...
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Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política (IIEP UBA-CONICET)
2022
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| Acceso en línea: | https://ojs.economicas.uba.ar/DT-IIEP/article/view/2471 https://repositoriouba.sisbi.uba.ar/gsdl/cgi-bin/library.cgi?a=d&c=dociiep&d=2471_oai |
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I28-R145-2471_oai2026-02-09 Heymann, Daniel Pascuini, Paulo 2022-11-29 Rational Expectations (RE) is typically interpreted as: (i) an equivalence between the probability distribution of future outcomes informing agents´ decisions and the objective distributions; or: (ii) a correspondence between the expectations of agents and those generated by professionally validated models. Both definitions differ, unless absolute validity is counterfactually attributed fallible models built by economists. Another ambiguity arises with the model-consistency notion, since what is considered relevant theory has varied over time and across researchers, especially in Macroeconomics. These issues affect the logic and significance of analytical procedures for treating expectations, and seem particularly pertinent when studying crises. La noción de expectativas racionales (RE) se interpreta típicamente como (i) una equivalencia entre la distribución de probabilidades de eventos futuros que guía las decisiones de los agentes y la distribución que de hecho caracteriza a esa evolución futura; o, (ii) una correspondencia entre las expectativas de los agentes y las distribuciones que serían generadas por la teoría relevante, profesionalmente validada. Ambas definiciones son distintas a menos que, contrafácticamente, se atribuya validez plena a los falibles y mutables modelos elaborados por los economistas. Una ambigÁ¼edad adicional surge con la noción de modelo- consistencia, porque lo que se considera teoría relevante ha variado con el tiempo y suele diferir entre analistas, particularmente en Macroeconomía. Estas cuestiones afectan a la lógica y el significado de los procedimientos usados en la representación de las expectativas, y serían especialmente centrales en el estudio de fenómenos de crisis. application/pdf https://ojs.economicas.uba.ar/DT-IIEP/article/view/2471 eng Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política (IIEP UBA-CONICET) https://ojs.economicas.uba.ar/DT-IIEP/article/view/2471/3207 Documentos de trabajo del Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política; Núm. 28 (2018): Documento de Trabajo del Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política UBA CONICET; 1-16 Working Papers series at Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política; No. 28 (2018): Working paper of Interdisciplinary Institute of Political Economy of Buenos Aires UBA CONICET; 1-16 2451-5728 Macroeconomía Expectativas Racionales Modelo Consistencia Macroeconomics Rational Expectations Model Consistency On the (in)consistency of re modeling Sobre la (in)consistencia de la remodelación info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion https://repositoriouba.sisbi.uba.ar/gsdl/cgi-bin/library.cgi?a=d&c=dociiep&d=2471_oai |
| institution |
Universidad de Buenos Aires |
| institution_str |
I-28 |
| repository_str |
R-145 |
| collection |
Repositorio Digital de la Universidad de Buenos Aires (UBA) |
| language |
Inglés |
| orig_language_str_mv |
eng |
| topic |
Macroeconomía Expectativas Racionales Modelo Consistencia Macroeconomics Rational Expectations Model Consistency |
| spellingShingle |
Macroeconomía Expectativas Racionales Modelo Consistencia Macroeconomics Rational Expectations Model Consistency Heymann, Daniel Pascuini, Paulo On the (in)consistency of re modeling |
| topic_facet |
Macroeconomía Expectativas Racionales Modelo Consistencia Macroeconomics Rational Expectations Model Consistency |
| description |
Rational Expectations (RE) is typically interpreted as: (i) an equivalence between the probability distribution of future outcomes informing agents´ decisions and the objective distributions; or: (ii) a correspondence between the expectations of agents and those generated by professionally validated models. Both definitions differ, unless absolute validity is counterfactually attributed fallible models built by economists. Another ambiguity arises with the model-consistency notion, since what is considered relevant theory has varied over time and across researchers, especially in Macroeconomics. These issues affect the logic and significance of analytical procedures for treating expectations, and seem particularly pertinent when studying crises. |
| format |
Artículo publishedVersion |
| author |
Heymann, Daniel Pascuini, Paulo |
| author_facet |
Heymann, Daniel Pascuini, Paulo |
| author_sort |
Heymann, Daniel |
| title |
On the (in)consistency of re modeling |
| title_short |
On the (in)consistency of re modeling |
| title_full |
On the (in)consistency of re modeling |
| title_fullStr |
On the (in)consistency of re modeling |
| title_full_unstemmed |
On the (in)consistency of re modeling |
| title_sort |
on the (in)consistency of re modeling |
| publisher |
Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política (IIEP UBA-CONICET) |
| publishDate |
2022 |
| url |
https://ojs.economicas.uba.ar/DT-IIEP/article/view/2471 https://repositoriouba.sisbi.uba.ar/gsdl/cgi-bin/library.cgi?a=d&c=dociiep&d=2471_oai |
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AT heymanndaniel ontheinconsistencyofremodeling AT pascuinipaulo ontheinconsistencyofremodeling AT heymanndaniel sobrelainconsistenciadelaremodelacion AT pascuinipaulo sobrelainconsistenciadelaremodelacion |
| _version_ |
1857043075673620480 |