Old series, new signals the economic cycle in light of wavelet analysis

The economic cycle is a subject of recurring debate in the specialized bibliography. Both from the conceptual point of view and its empirical recognition, there is no consensus regarding the causes and concrete forms of this characteristic of the economy. In particular, the statements regarding the...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: Kozlowski, Diego
Formato: Artículo publishedVersion
Lenguaje:Español
Publicado: CIMBAGE - IADCOM - Facultad de Ciencias Económicas - Universidad de Buenos Aires 2019
Materias:
Wavelets
Ciclo salario
PBI
Cycle-Wage
GDP
Acceso en línea:https://ojs.economicas.uba.ar/CIMBAGE/article/view/1587
https://repositoriouba.sisbi.uba.ar/gsdl/cgi-bin/library.cgi?a=d&c=cimbage&d=1587_oai
Aporte de:
Repositorio Digital de la Universidad de Buenos Aires (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires
id I28-R145-1587_oai
record_format dspace
spelling I28-R145-1587_oai2025-02-11 Kozlowski, Diego 2019-11-08 The economic cycle is a subject of recurring debate in the specialized bibliography. Both from the conceptual point of view and its empirical recognition, there is no consensus regarding the causes and concrete forms of this characteristic of the economy. In particular, the statements regarding the existence of a long wave,  proposed by different authors  of the early twentieth century, are a source of debate. In this work we propose an empirical review of series traditionally used in economic anal- ysis, such as the product, wages, and gold, for the United States and the United Kingdom, from the 18th century to the present, using a tech- nique originally developed in the area of signal analysis. The objective  is to seek new evidence regarding the presence of a well-defined cycle in long periods of economic history. For this, we use Wavelets analysis in search of low-frequency signals, or long periods. The results show favor- able evidence to the existence of three distinct cycles, one of which would be of amplitude around 50 years. El desenvolvimiento cíclico de la economía es un tema de recurrente debate en la bibliografía especializada. Tanto desde el punto de vista conceptual como en el reconocimiento empírico, no existe un consenso generalizado respecto de las causas y formas concretas de esta caracte- rística de la economía. En particular, son fuente de debate las afirmacio- nes respecto a la existencia de ciclos definidos en períodos largos, pro- puestos por diferentes autores de principios del siglo XX. En el presente trabajo se propone una revisión empírica de series tradicionalmente uti- lizadas en el análisis económico, como lo son el producto, salario y oro, para Estados Unidos y el Reino Unido, desde el siglo XVIII a la actua- lidad, mediante una técnica originalmente desarrollada para el área de análisis de señales. El objetivo es buscar nuevas evidencias respecto a la presencia de un ciclo bien definido en períodos largos de la historia eco- nómica. Para esto, se utiliza el análisis de Wavelets en busca de señales de baja frecuencia, o períodos largos. Los resultados muestran evidencia favorable a la existencia de tres ciclos bien definidos, uno de los cuales sería de una amplitud en torno a los 50 años. text/html application/pdf https://ojs.economicas.uba.ar/CIMBAGE/article/view/1587 spa CIMBAGE - IADCOM - Facultad de Ciencias Económicas - Universidad de Buenos Aires https://ojs.economicas.uba.ar/CIMBAGE/article/view/1587/2250 https://ojs.economicas.uba.ar/CIMBAGE/article/view/1587/2836 Cuadernos del CIMBAGE; Vol. 2 No. 21 (2019): Cuadernos del CIMBAGE; 173-200 Cuadernos del CIMBAGE; Vol. 2 Núm. 21 (2019): Cuadernos del CIMBAGE; 173-200 1669-1830 1666-5112 Wavelets Ciclo salario PBI Wavelets Cycle-Wage GDP Old series, new signals the economic cycle in light of wavelet analysis Viejas series, nuevas señales el ciclo económico a la luz del análisis de wavelets info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion https://repositoriouba.sisbi.uba.ar/gsdl/cgi-bin/library.cgi?a=d&c=cimbage&d=1587_oai
institution Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str I-28
repository_str R-145
collection Repositorio Digital de la Universidad de Buenos Aires (UBA)
language Español
orig_language_str_mv spa
topic Wavelets
Ciclo salario
PBI
Wavelets
Cycle-Wage
GDP
spellingShingle Wavelets
Ciclo salario
PBI
Wavelets
Cycle-Wage
GDP
Kozlowski, Diego
Old series, new signals the economic cycle in light of wavelet analysis
topic_facet Wavelets
Ciclo salario
PBI
Wavelets
Cycle-Wage
GDP
description The economic cycle is a subject of recurring debate in the specialized bibliography. Both from the conceptual point of view and its empirical recognition, there is no consensus regarding the causes and concrete forms of this characteristic of the economy. In particular, the statements regarding the existence of a long wave,  proposed by different authors  of the early twentieth century, are a source of debate. In this work we propose an empirical review of series traditionally used in economic anal- ysis, such as the product, wages, and gold, for the United States and the United Kingdom, from the 18th century to the present, using a tech- nique originally developed in the area of signal analysis. The objective  is to seek new evidence regarding the presence of a well-defined cycle in long periods of economic history. For this, we use Wavelets analysis in search of low-frequency signals, or long periods. The results show favor- able evidence to the existence of three distinct cycles, one of which would be of amplitude around 50 years.
format Artículo
publishedVersion
author Kozlowski, Diego
author_facet Kozlowski, Diego
author_sort Kozlowski, Diego
title Old series, new signals the economic cycle in light of wavelet analysis
title_short Old series, new signals the economic cycle in light of wavelet analysis
title_full Old series, new signals the economic cycle in light of wavelet analysis
title_fullStr Old series, new signals the economic cycle in light of wavelet analysis
title_full_unstemmed Old series, new signals the economic cycle in light of wavelet analysis
title_sort old series, new signals the economic cycle in light of wavelet analysis
publisher CIMBAGE - IADCOM - Facultad de Ciencias Económicas - Universidad de Buenos Aires
publishDate 2019
url https://ojs.economicas.uba.ar/CIMBAGE/article/view/1587
https://repositoriouba.sisbi.uba.ar/gsdl/cgi-bin/library.cgi?a=d&c=cimbage&d=1587_oai
work_keys_str_mv AT kozlowskidiego oldseriesnewsignalstheeconomiccycleinlightofwaveletanalysis
AT kozlowskidiego viejasseriesnuevassenaleselcicloeconomicoalaluzdelanalisisdewavelets
_version_ 1825551067598815232

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