Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity of Río Negro. An application to analyze the economic impact of COVID19
We estimate a monthly coincident index of regional economic activity for the Argentinean province of Río Negro from 2004 to 2020. We considered a set of series related to the economic cycle, assuming that there is a common unobservable factor that we estimate using dynamic factor models. The scarce...
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| Formato: | Artículo revista |
| Lenguaje: | Español |
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Centro Universitario Regional Zona Atlántica - Universidad Nacional del Comahue - Argentin
2022
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| Acceso en línea: | https://revele.uncoma.edu.ar/index.php/Sociales/article/view/4200 |
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I22-R128-article-42002024-04-09T11:55:52Z Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity of Río Negro. An application to analyze the economic impact of COVID19 Indicador Mensual de Actividad Económica de Río Negro. Una aplicación para analizar el impacto económico del COVID19 Malvicino, Facundo E. Dynamic Factor Models Economic Cycle Regional Economies Modelos de Factores Dinámicos Ciclo Económico Economías Regionales We estimate a monthly coincident index of regional economic activity for the Argentinean province of Río Negro from 2004 to 2020. We considered a set of series related to the economic cycle, assuming that there is a common unobservable factor that we estimate using dynamic factor models. The scarce and outdated official data for regional economic indexes justify this attempt, although it imposes another methodological problem related to the choice of a benchmark series. Despite the methodological issues, the estimated index reproduces the economic growth of Río Negro, and it allows analyzing the impact of exogenous shocks like COVID-19 on economic activity. The results confirm that the worst economic effect of the pandemic happened during the most stringent sanitary measures between March and April. In December of 2020, the recovery was not enough to reach the pre-pandemic levels of economic activity. Presentamos la estimación del indicador sintético mensual de actividad económica de la provincia de Río Negro para el período 2004-2020. Se utiliza un grupo de variables asociadas con el ciclo económico provincial y se utiliza el modelo de factores dinámicos para la estimación de un indicador sintético. Se discute la sensibilidad de las estimaciones a la tendencia y volatilidad utilizadas para definir el indicador cuando no se encuentran disponibles series estadísticas de referencia. A pesar de este problema metodológico, el indicador permite sintetizar la actividad económica de la provincia y constituye un aporte a las estadísticas regionales ante la carencia de datos oficiales sobre actividad económica agregada. El indicador refleja la dinámica económica reciente de la provincia y permite evaluar el impacto de eventos puntuales o shocks exógenos sobre la actividad económica como la pandemia desatada a partir del COVID-19. Los resultados indican que el impacto de la actividad económica se dio en simultáneo con la implementación de las medidas preventivas, siendo los meses de marzo y abril de 2020 los que registran mayores caídas en el nivel de actividad. En diciembre de 2020, la reactivación iniciada en mayo no alcanza a recuperar los niveles previos a la crisis. Centro Universitario Regional Zona Atlántica - Universidad Nacional del Comahue - Argentin 2022-07-10 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion application/pdf https://revele.uncoma.edu.ar/index.php/Sociales/article/view/4200 Revista Pilquen. Sección Ciencias Sociales; Vol. 25 Núm. 2 (2022): Revista Pilquen. Sección Ciencias Sociales; 98-133 1851-3123 1666-0579 spa https://revele.uncoma.edu.ar/index.php/Sociales/article/view/4200/61168 Derechos de autor 1998 Revista Pilquen Sección Ciencias Sociales https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0 |
| institution |
Universidad Nacional del Comahue |
| institution_str |
I-22 |
| repository_str |
R-128 |
| container_title_str |
Repositorio de Revistas Electrónicas REVELE (UNComahue) |
| language |
Español |
| format |
Artículo revista |
| topic |
Dynamic Factor Models Economic Cycle Regional Economies Modelos de Factores Dinámicos Ciclo Económico Economías Regionales |
| spellingShingle |
Dynamic Factor Models Economic Cycle Regional Economies Modelos de Factores Dinámicos Ciclo Económico Economías Regionales Malvicino, Facundo E. Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity of Río Negro. An application to analyze the economic impact of COVID19 |
| topic_facet |
Dynamic Factor Models Economic Cycle Regional Economies Modelos de Factores Dinámicos Ciclo Económico Economías Regionales |
| author |
Malvicino, Facundo E. |
| author_facet |
Malvicino, Facundo E. |
| author_sort |
Malvicino, Facundo E. |
| title |
Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity of Río Negro. An application to analyze the economic impact of COVID19 |
| title_short |
Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity of Río Negro. An application to analyze the economic impact of COVID19 |
| title_full |
Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity of Río Negro. An application to analyze the economic impact of COVID19 |
| title_fullStr |
Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity of Río Negro. An application to analyze the economic impact of COVID19 |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity of Río Negro. An application to analyze the economic impact of COVID19 |
| title_sort |
monthly indicator of economic activity of río negro. an application to analyze the economic impact of covid19 |
| description |
We estimate a monthly coincident index of regional economic activity for the Argentinean province of Río Negro from 2004 to 2020. We considered a set of series related to the economic cycle, assuming that there is a common unobservable factor that we estimate using dynamic factor models. The scarce and outdated official data for regional economic indexes justify this attempt, although it imposes another methodological problem related to the choice of a benchmark series. Despite the methodological issues, the estimated index reproduces the economic growth of Río Negro, and it allows analyzing the impact of exogenous shocks like COVID-19 on economic activity. The results confirm that the worst economic effect of the pandemic happened during the most stringent sanitary measures between March and April. In December of 2020, the recovery was not enough to reach the pre-pandemic levels of economic activity. |
| publisher |
Centro Universitario Regional Zona Atlántica - Universidad Nacional del Comahue - Argentin |
| publishDate |
2022 |
| url |
https://revele.uncoma.edu.ar/index.php/Sociales/article/view/4200 |
| work_keys_str_mv |
AT malvicinofacundoe monthlyindicatorofeconomicactivityofrionegroanapplicationtoanalyzetheeconomicimpactofcovid19 AT malvicinofacundoe indicadormensualdeactividadeconomicaderionegrounaaplicacionparaanalizarelimpactoeconomicodelcovid19 |
| first_indexed |
2022-08-19T20:23:55Z |
| last_indexed |
2024-08-12T23:06:39Z |
| _version_ |
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