Learning from Potentially-Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina

When forming expectations, households may be influenced by the possibility that the information they receive is biased. In this paper, we study how individuals learn from potentially-biased statistics using data from both a natural and a survey-based experiment obtained during a period o...

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Autores principales: Cavallo, Alberto, Cruces, Guillermo Antonio, Perez Truglia, Ricardo
Formato: Articulo Documento de trabajo
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: 2016
Materias:
Ciencias Económicas
Price Level
Inflation
Central Banks and Their Policies
Survey Methods
Sampling Methods
Acceso en línea:http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/98042
https://ri.conicet.gov.ar/11336/95084
https://www.nber.org/papers/w22103
Aporte de:
SEDICI (UNLP) de Universidad Nacional de La Plata
id I19-R120-10915-98042
record_format dspace
institution Universidad Nacional de La Plata
institution_str I-19
repository_str R-120
collection SEDICI (UNLP)
language Inglés
topic Ciencias Económicas
Price Level
Inflation
Central Banks and Their Policies
Survey Methods
Sampling Methods
spellingShingle Ciencias Económicas
Price Level
Inflation
Central Banks and Their Policies
Survey Methods
Sampling Methods
Cavallo, Alberto
Cruces, Guillermo Antonio
Perez Truglia, Ricardo
Learning from Potentially-Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina
topic_facet Ciencias Económicas
Price Level
Inflation
Central Banks and Their Policies
Survey Methods
Sampling Methods
description When forming expectations, households may be influenced by the possibility that the information they receive is biased. In this paper, we study how individuals learn from potentially-biased statistics using data from both a natural and a survey-based experiment obtained during a period of government manipulation of inflation statistics in Argentina (2006 2015). This period is interesting because of the attention to inflation information and the availability of both official and unofficial statistics. Our evidence suggests that rather than ignoring biased statistics or navively taking them at face value, households react in a sophisticated way, as predicted by a Bayesian learning model, effectively de-biasing the official data to extract all its useful content. We also find evidence of an asymmetric reaction to inflation signals, with expectations changing more when the inflation rate rises than when it falls. These results are useful for understanding the formation of inflation expectations in less extreme contexts than Argentina, such as the United States and Europe, where experts may agree that statistics are unbiased but households do not.
format Articulo
Documento de trabajo
author Cavallo, Alberto
Cruces, Guillermo Antonio
Perez Truglia, Ricardo
author_facet Cavallo, Alberto
Cruces, Guillermo Antonio
Perez Truglia, Ricardo
author_sort Cavallo, Alberto
title Learning from Potentially-Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina
title_short Learning from Potentially-Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina
title_full Learning from Potentially-Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina
title_fullStr Learning from Potentially-Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina
title_full_unstemmed Learning from Potentially-Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina
title_sort learning from potentially-biased statistics: household inflation perceptions and expectations in argentina
publishDate 2016
url http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/98042
https://ri.conicet.gov.ar/11336/95084
https://www.nber.org/papers/w22103
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