A Case Study of Forecasting Elections Results: Beyond Prediction based on Business Intelligence

In the field of data analysis, it is common not to distinguish clearly between prediction and forecast. Although the results of both processes may tend to converge, the mechanisms used in each case tend to be completely different. Prediction has to do with statistical extrapolation and estimation a...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Lorenzo, Antonio, Olivas Varela, José Ángel
Formato: Articulo
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: 2019
Materias:
Ciencias Informáticas
Business Intelligence
Expert Knowledge
Forecast
Methodology
Prediction
Conocimiento experto
Inteligencia de negocio
Predicción
Pronóstico
Acceso en línea:http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/87771
Aporte de:
SEDICI (UNLP) de Universidad Nacional de La Plata
id I19-R120-10915-87771
record_format dspace
institution Universidad Nacional de La Plata
institution_str I-19
repository_str R-120
collection SEDICI (UNLP)
language Inglés
topic Ciencias Informáticas
Business Intelligence
Expert Knowledge
Forecast
Methodology
Prediction
Conocimiento experto
Inteligencia de negocio
Predicción
Pronóstico
spellingShingle Ciencias Informáticas
Business Intelligence
Expert Knowledge
Forecast
Methodology
Prediction
Conocimiento experto
Inteligencia de negocio
Predicción
Pronóstico
Lorenzo, Antonio
Olivas Varela, José Ángel
A Case Study of Forecasting Elections Results: Beyond Prediction based on Business Intelligence
topic_facet Ciencias Informáticas
Business Intelligence
Expert Knowledge
Forecast
Methodology
Prediction
Conocimiento experto
Inteligencia de negocio
Predicción
Pronóstico
description In the field of data analysis, it is common not to distinguish clearly between prediction and forecast. Although the results of both processes may tend to converge, the mechanisms used in each case tend to be completely different. Prediction has to do with statistical extrapolation and estimation and forecasting can consider expert judgments on the subject. A methodology is proposed to carry out this latter task, with a mechanism that uses both historical and current data with the judgement of an expert. The methodology is applied to the case study of the Spanish general elections of April 2019.
format Articulo
Articulo
author Lorenzo, Antonio
Olivas Varela, José Ángel
author_facet Lorenzo, Antonio
Olivas Varela, José Ángel
author_sort Lorenzo, Antonio
title A Case Study of Forecasting Elections Results: Beyond Prediction based on Business Intelligence
title_short A Case Study of Forecasting Elections Results: Beyond Prediction based on Business Intelligence
title_full A Case Study of Forecasting Elections Results: Beyond Prediction based on Business Intelligence
title_fullStr A Case Study of Forecasting Elections Results: Beyond Prediction based on Business Intelligence
title_full_unstemmed A Case Study of Forecasting Elections Results: Beyond Prediction based on Business Intelligence
title_sort case study of forecasting elections results: beyond prediction based on business intelligence
publishDate 2019
url http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/87771
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