Economic Assessment of Development Interventions in Data Poor Countries: An Application to Belize’s Sustainable Tourism Program

Ex-ante economic impact analyses are required to demonstrate the development impact and economic viability of loans and grants extended by multi-lateral development banks. These assessments are performed under tight time constraints and often in data poor environments. This paper develops a framewor...

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Autores principales:	Banerjee, Onil, Cicowiez, Martín, Cotta, Jamie
Formato:	Articulo Documento de trabajo
Lenguaje:	Inglés
Publicado:	2016
Materias:	Ciencias Económicas turismo Belice pobreza ex-ante economic impact analysis; tourism development; economy-wide model; auto-regressive integrated moving average; contingent valuation; data poor environment
Acceso en línea:	http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/51684 http://cedlas.econo.unlp.edu.ar/download.php?file=archivos_upload/doc_cedlas194.pdf
Aporte de:	SEDICI (UNLP) de Universidad Nacional de La Plata

id	I19-R120-10915-51684
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institution	Universidad Nacional de La Plata
institution_str	I-19
repository_str	R-120
collection	SEDICI (UNLP)
language	Inglés
topic	Ciencias Económicas turismo Belice pobreza ex-ante economic impact analysis; tourism development; economy-wide model; auto-regressive integrated moving average; contingent valuation; data poor environment
spellingShingle	Ciencias Económicas turismo Belice pobreza ex-ante economic impact analysis; tourism development; economy-wide model; auto-regressive integrated moving average; contingent valuation; data poor environment Banerjee, Onil Cicowiez, Martín Cotta, Jamie Economic Assessment of Development Interventions in Data Poor Countries: An Application to Belize’s Sustainable Tourism Program
topic_facet	Ciencias Económicas turismo Belice pobreza ex-ante economic impact analysis; tourism development; economy-wide model; auto-regressive integrated moving average; contingent valuation; data poor environment
description	Ex-ante economic impact analyses are required to demonstrate the development impact and economic viability of loans and grants extended by multi-lateral development banks. These assessments are performed under tight time constraints and often in data poor environments. This paper develops a framework for assessing development interventions in data poor environments and applies it to the analysis of the Sustainable Tourism Program, a US$15 million loan from the Inter-American Development Bank to the Government of Belize to foster tourism development in emerging destinations and enhance participation of low income people in the tourism value chain. This paper contributes to the literature in two critical ways: (i) the paper develops a generalizable approach to building dynamic computable general equilibrium models for development policy analysis in data poor environments; (ii) realistic expectations of agent behavioral responses to development interventions are required to calibrate model simulations. To estimate business as usual tourism arrivals and expenditure, auto-regressive integrated moving average methods were used. To estimate agent response to the development intervention, a survey-based quasi-contingent valuation approach was employed. These projections and information on investment structuring and costs were used to calibrate the model shocks. Results of this analysis show that the proposed investment will have positive impacts on Belize’s economy by hastening economic growth. Gross domestic product increases 3% by 2040 and unemployment falls from 12% to 10%. Cross validating with a break-even scenario confirms that the Government of Belize would recover all investment costs even if actual agent demand response were considerably less than forecast. The model developed here may be applied to the ex-ante economic analysis of other sectoral development interventions ranging from agricultural policy to fiscal policy, from integration and trade, to health and education.
format	Articulo Documento de trabajo
author	Banerjee, Onil Cicowiez, Martín Cotta, Jamie
author_facet	Banerjee, Onil Cicowiez, Martín Cotta, Jamie
author_sort	Banerjee, Onil
title	Economic Assessment of Development Interventions in Data Poor Countries: An Application to Belize’s Sustainable Tourism Program
title_short	Economic Assessment of Development Interventions in Data Poor Countries: An Application to Belize’s Sustainable Tourism Program
title_full	Economic Assessment of Development Interventions in Data Poor Countries: An Application to Belize’s Sustainable Tourism Program
title_fullStr	Economic Assessment of Development Interventions in Data Poor Countries: An Application to Belize’s Sustainable Tourism Program
title_full_unstemmed	Economic Assessment of Development Interventions in Data Poor Countries: An Application to Belize’s Sustainable Tourism Program
title_sort	economic assessment of development interventions in data poor countries: an application to belize’s sustainable tourism program
publishDate	2016
url	http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/51684 http://cedlas.econo.unlp.edu.ar/download.php?file=archivos_upload/doc_cedlas194.pdf
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bdutipo_str	Repositorios
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Economic Assessment of Development Interventions in Data Poor Countries: An Application to Belize’s Sustainable Tourism Program

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