The role of the galactocentric distance of a civilization on its chance of contacting other intelligent civilizations
The number of intelligent civilizations in the Galaxy is one of the most important unanswered questions in modern science. A related problem is to assess the chance of contacts among locations with communication capability, assuming they exist. Here we present a model for a communication network tha...
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| Formato: | Articulo |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
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2021
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| Acceso en línea: | http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/177586 |
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I19-R120-10915-1775862025-03-20T20:05:05Z http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/177586 The role of the galactocentric distance of a civilization on its chance of contacting other intelligent civilizations Lares, M. Funes, J. G. Gramajo, L. V. 2021 2025-03-20T18:31:48Z en Ciencias Astronómicas extraterrestrial intelligence methods: numerical methods: statistical The number of intelligent civilizations in the Galaxy is one of the most important unanswered questions in modern science. A related problem is to assess the chance of contacts among locations with communication capability, assuming they exist. Here we present a model for a communication network that allows to estimate the probabilities of causal contacts constrained to a maximum separation between the nodes in the network. The model has three parameters, which we argue comprise the minimum number of assumptions about the statistical properties of the distribution of intelligence in the Galaxy, considering the time variable as a key factor. We make no assumptions about the origin of life or any other factor in the Drake equation, except for the mean lifetime of a node. The model also considers the maximum distance a signal can be detected and the density of active nodes in time, and assumes statistical patterns that are observed in a plethora of phenomena in nature. We analyze many numerical Monte Carlo simulations of the model through a discrete events implementation. The simulation suite allows to estimate probabilities of contacts, the distributions of the waiting times for the first contact and the distributions of the number of contacts as a function of the model parameters, among other quantities. We find that a node has a low probability, for an observing time of some decades, to make contacts to other nodes in the network, except for models that resemble a densely populated Galaxy with longstanding civilizations. The probability of contacts slowly decreases towards to outer region of the Galaxy. El número de civilizaciones inteligentes en la Galaxia es una de las preguntas sin respuesta más importantes de la ciencia moderna. Un problema relacionado es determinar las chances de que se produzcan contactos entre civilizaciones, asumiendo que las mismas existen. Utilizamos un modelo para la red de comunicaciones que permite estimar las probabilidades de contactos causales restringidos a un alcance máximo en la red. El modelo tiene tres parámetros que contienen el mínimo número posible de hipótesis para determinar las propiedades estadísticas de la red de comunicaciones, y donde el tiempo es una variable clave. El modelo no asume las chances de la aparición de la vida ni los demás factores de la Ecuación de Drake, excepto la vida media de una civilización inteligente capaz de comunicarse. Analizamos muchas simulaciones Monte Garlo del modelo mediante la implementación del método de eventos discretos. El conjunto de simulaciones también permite estimar las probabilidades de contacto en función de la ubicación de un nodo en la Galaxia, la distribución de tiempos de espera para el primer contacto y la distribución del número de contactos en función de los parámetros del modelo. Encontramos que un nodo tiene una baja probabilidad de hacer contactos en un tiempo de unas pocas décadas, excepto para los modelos con alta densidad de civilizaciones antiguas. La probabilidad de contactos disminuye levemente hacia el borde exterior de la Galaxia. Asociación Argentina de Astronomía Articulo Articulo http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) application/pdf 316-318 |
| institution |
Universidad Nacional de La Plata |
| institution_str |
I-19 |
| repository_str |
R-120 |
| collection |
SEDICI (UNLP) |
| language |
Inglés |
| topic |
Ciencias Astronómicas extraterrestrial intelligence methods: numerical methods: statistical |
| spellingShingle |
Ciencias Astronómicas extraterrestrial intelligence methods: numerical methods: statistical Lares, M. Funes, J. G. Gramajo, L. V. The role of the galactocentric distance of a civilization on its chance of contacting other intelligent civilizations |
| topic_facet |
Ciencias Astronómicas extraterrestrial intelligence methods: numerical methods: statistical |
| description |
The number of intelligent civilizations in the Galaxy is one of the most important unanswered questions in modern science. A related problem is to assess the chance of contacts among locations with communication capability, assuming they exist. Here we present a model for a communication network that allows to estimate the probabilities of causal contacts constrained to a maximum separation between the nodes in the network. The model has three parameters, which we argue comprise the minimum number of assumptions about the statistical properties of the distribution of intelligence in the Galaxy, considering the time variable as a key factor. We make no assumptions about the origin of life or any other factor in the Drake equation, except for the mean lifetime of a node. The model also considers the maximum distance a signal can be detected and the density of active nodes in time, and assumes statistical patterns that are observed in a plethora of phenomena in nature. We analyze many numerical Monte Carlo simulations of the model through a discrete events implementation. The simulation suite allows to estimate probabilities of contacts, the distributions of the waiting times for the first contact and the distributions of the number of contacts as a function of the model parameters, among other quantities. We find that a node has a low probability, for an observing time of some decades, to make contacts to other nodes in the network, except for models that resemble a densely populated Galaxy with longstanding civilizations. The probability of contacts slowly decreases towards to outer region of the Galaxy. |
| format |
Articulo Articulo |
| author |
Lares, M. Funes, J. G. Gramajo, L. V. |
| author_facet |
Lares, M. Funes, J. G. Gramajo, L. V. |
| author_sort |
Lares, M. |
| title |
The role of the galactocentric distance of a civilization on its chance of contacting other intelligent civilizations |
| title_short |
The role of the galactocentric distance of a civilization on its chance of contacting other intelligent civilizations |
| title_full |
The role of the galactocentric distance of a civilization on its chance of contacting other intelligent civilizations |
| title_fullStr |
The role of the galactocentric distance of a civilization on its chance of contacting other intelligent civilizations |
| title_full_unstemmed |
The role of the galactocentric distance of a civilization on its chance of contacting other intelligent civilizations |
| title_sort |
role of the galactocentric distance of a civilization on its chance of contacting other intelligent civilizations |
| publishDate |
2021 |
| url |
http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/177586 |
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