Ecuadorian flower exports and their seasonality: an econometric analysis using GARCH modeling

Exports of natural flowers as macroeconomic variables present repetitive behaviors or patterns; the objective of this research is to obtain a GARCH econometric model of the seasonal behavior of Ecuadorian flowers in the international market. The applied methodology was descriptive with a mixed appro...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Altamirano Pérez, Hólguer Rodrigo, Ortega Galarza, Máximo, Páez Romero, Verónica Gabriela
Formato:	Articulo
Lenguaje:	Inglés
Publicado:	2024
Materias:	Ciencias Económicas Administración Econometría Ecuador estacionalidad exportaciones flores naturales modelo SARIMA modelo GARCH econometrics exports natural flowers seasonality SARIMA model GARCH model
Acceso en línea:	http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/175354
Aporte de:	SEDICI (UNLP) de Universidad Nacional de La Plata

id	I19-R120-10915-175354
record_format	dspace
spelling	I19-R120-10915-1753542024-12-26T20:05:16Z http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/175354 Ecuadorian flower exports and their seasonality: an econometric analysis using GARCH modeling Exportaciones de flores ecuatorianas y su estacionalidad: un análisis econométrico utilizando modelos GARCH Altamirano Pérez, Hólguer Rodrigo Ortega Galarza, Máximo Páez Romero, Verónica Gabriela 2024-12-18 2024-12-26T12:54:13Z en Ciencias Económicas Administración Econometría Ecuador estacionalidad exportaciones flores naturales modelo SARIMA modelo GARCH econometrics exports natural flowers seasonality SARIMA model GARCH model Exports of natural flowers as macroeconomic variables present repetitive behaviors or patterns; the objective of this research is to obtain a GARCH econometric model of the seasonal behavior of Ecuadorian flowers in the international market. The applied methodology was descriptive with a mixed approach and quantitative approach to a total of 259 monthly data from January 2000 to July 2022. For this study, the Box - Jenkins or seasonal ARIMA time series methodology known as SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model) was used with the Eviews 9 program. The results showed that the application of a GARCH model to a seasonal model was adequate to forecast five out-of-sample data after generating a first difference to the original model because it was not stationary, the peak export months are February, March, and May, respectively; the first because there is a significant boom every year as a result of the fact that in this month the day of love and friendship is celebrated and orders worldwide multiply, and the third for Mother's Day. Las exportaciones de flores naturales como variable macroeconómica presentan comportamientos o patrones repetitivos, el objetivo de esta investigación es obtener un modelo econométrico GARCH del comportamiento estacional de las flores ecuatorianas en el mercado internacional. La metodología aplicada fue descriptiva con enfoque mixto y énfasis cuantitativo a un total de 259 datos mensuales desde enero del año 2000 hasta julio del año 2022. Para este estudio se utilizó la metodología de series de tiempo Box – Jenkins o ARIMA estacional conocida como SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model) mediante el programa Eviews 9. Los resultados demostraron que la aplicación de un modelo GARCH a uno estacional fue adecuado para pronosticar cinco datos fuera de la muestra luego de generar una primera diferencia al modelo original por no ser estacionario y donde se aprecia que los meses donde alcanza la cima de exportaciones son de febrero, marzo y mayo respectivamente; siendo el primero porque existe un auge importante cada año producto de que en este mes se celebra el día del amor y la amistad y los pedidos a nivel mundial se multiplican y el tercero por el día de la madre. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas Articulo Articulo http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) application/pdf
institution	Universidad Nacional de La Plata
institution_str	I-19
repository_str	R-120
collection	SEDICI (UNLP)
language	Inglés
topic	Ciencias Económicas Administración Econometría Ecuador estacionalidad exportaciones flores naturales modelo SARIMA modelo GARCH econometrics exports natural flowers seasonality SARIMA model GARCH model
spellingShingle	Ciencias Económicas Administración Econometría Ecuador estacionalidad exportaciones flores naturales modelo SARIMA modelo GARCH econometrics exports natural flowers seasonality SARIMA model GARCH model Altamirano Pérez, Hólguer Rodrigo Ortega Galarza, Máximo Páez Romero, Verónica Gabriela Ecuadorian flower exports and their seasonality: an econometric analysis using GARCH modeling
topic_facet	Ciencias Económicas Administración Econometría Ecuador estacionalidad exportaciones flores naturales modelo SARIMA modelo GARCH econometrics exports natural flowers seasonality SARIMA model GARCH model
description	Exports of natural flowers as macroeconomic variables present repetitive behaviors or patterns; the objective of this research is to obtain a GARCH econometric model of the seasonal behavior of Ecuadorian flowers in the international market. The applied methodology was descriptive with a mixed approach and quantitative approach to a total of 259 monthly data from January 2000 to July 2022. For this study, the Box - Jenkins or seasonal ARIMA time series methodology known as SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model) was used with the Eviews 9 program. The results showed that the application of a GARCH model to a seasonal model was adequate to forecast five out-of-sample data after generating a first difference to the original model because it was not stationary, the peak export months are February, March, and May, respectively; the first because there is a significant boom every year as a result of the fact that in this month the day of love and friendship is celebrated and orders worldwide multiply, and the third for Mother's Day.
format	Articulo Articulo
author	Altamirano Pérez, Hólguer Rodrigo Ortega Galarza, Máximo Páez Romero, Verónica Gabriela
author_facet	Altamirano Pérez, Hólguer Rodrigo Ortega Galarza, Máximo Páez Romero, Verónica Gabriela
author_sort	Altamirano Pérez, Hólguer Rodrigo
title	Ecuadorian flower exports and their seasonality: an econometric analysis using GARCH modeling
title_short	Ecuadorian flower exports and their seasonality: an econometric analysis using GARCH modeling
title_full	Ecuadorian flower exports and their seasonality: an econometric analysis using GARCH modeling
title_fullStr	Ecuadorian flower exports and their seasonality: an econometric analysis using GARCH modeling
title_full_unstemmed	Ecuadorian flower exports and their seasonality: an econometric analysis using GARCH modeling
title_sort	ecuadorian flower exports and their seasonality: an econometric analysis using garch modeling
publishDate	2024
url	http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/175354
work_keys_str_mv	AT altamiranoperezholguerrodrigo ecuadorianflowerexportsandtheirseasonalityaneconometricanalysisusinggarchmodeling AT ortegagalarzamaximo ecuadorianflowerexportsandtheirseasonalityaneconometricanalysisusinggarchmodeling AT paezromeroveronicagabriela ecuadorianflowerexportsandtheirseasonalityaneconometricanalysisusinggarchmodeling AT altamiranoperezholguerrodrigo exportacionesdefloresecuatorianasysuestacionalidadunanalisiseconometricoutilizandomodelosgarch AT ortegagalarzamaximo exportacionesdefloresecuatorianasysuestacionalidadunanalisiseconometricoutilizandomodelosgarch AT paezromeroveronicagabriela exportacionesdefloresecuatorianasysuestacionalidadunanalisiseconometricoutilizandomodelosgarch
_version_	1844301346121973760

Ecuadorian flower exports and their seasonality: an econometric analysis using GARCH modeling

Ejemplares similares