Dengue dynamics: modeling spread and environmental interactions

The objective of this study is to analyze the behavior of dengue fever in the city of La Plata during one year, considering temperature as an environmental factor, its influence on the mosquito population and the transmission of the DENY virus (which causes dengue fever, also known as dengue fever)....

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Autores principales: Matto, Joaquín, Stella, Joaquín, Maccallini, Lucas, Romero, Fernando, Encinas, Diego
Formato: Articulo
Lenguaje:Español
Publicado: 2024
Materias:
Ciencias Informáticas
Simulation
Dengue
Mosquitoes
Climate change
ARMS
Simulación
Mosquitos
Cambio climático
Acceso en línea:http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/173748
Aporte de:
SEDICI (UNLP) de Universidad Nacional de La Plata
id I19-R120-10915-173748
record_format dspace
spelling I19-R120-10915-1737482024-11-27T20:05:47Z http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/173748 Dengue dynamics: modeling spread and environmental interactions Dinámica del dengue: modelización de la propagación y las interacciones ambientales Matto, Joaquín Stella, Joaquín Maccallini, Lucas Romero, Fernando Encinas, Diego 2024-10 2024-11-27T14:28:04Z es Ciencias Informáticas Simulation Dengue Mosquitoes Climate change ARMS Simulación Mosquitos Cambio climático The objective of this study is to analyze the behavior of dengue fever in the city of La Plata during one year, considering temperature as an environmental factor, its influence on the mosquito population and the transmission of the DENY virus (which causes dengue fever, also known as dengue fever). To become aware of the magnitude of the problem in the future, and using the temperature estimated by the global warming trend, we sought to project an increase in average annual temperatures for the coming years, and thus estimate the impact on the spread of dengue fever. The Netlogo simulation tool was used to model the behavior of a mosquito population and the spread of the dengue virus through contact with the human population. Using official data from the National Meteorological Service, a scenario of spread was simulated for the period November 2022- November 2023, and the increase in temperature due to climate change was projected to simulate how it affects the spread of the virus and the mosquito population, maintaining the same trend for 2024, 2025 and 2030. It was concluded that climate change may generate an expansion in both the size of mosquito populations and their annual activity, leading to the appearance of dengue outbreaks outside the identified warmer seasons. Este trabajo tiene como objetivo analizar el comportamiento del dengue en la ciudad de La Plata durante un año teniendo en cuenta la temperatura como factor ambiental, su influencia sobre la población de mosquitos y la transmisión del virus DENY (causante de la enfermedad dengue, también conocida como fiebre de dengue). Para tomar conciencia de la magnitud del problema a futuro, y usando la temperatura estimada por la tendencia del calentamiento global, se buscó proyectar un aumento en las temperaturas medias anuales para los años venideros, y así estimar el impacto de dicha problemática sobre la propagación del dengue. Utilizando la herramienta de simulación Netlogo, se implemento un modelo del comportamiento de una población de mosquitos y la propagación del virus del dengue a partir del contacto con la población humana, haciendo uso de datos oficiales del Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, se simuló un escenario de propagación para el período noviembre 2022- noviembre 2023, y se proyectó el aumento de las temperaturas a causa del cambio climático, para simular cómo afecta la propagación del virus y la población de mosquitos manteniendo la misma tendencia para 2024, 2025 y 2030. Se concluyó que el cambio climático puede generar una expansión tanto en el tamaño de las poblaciones de mosquitos como en su actividad anual, propiciando la aparición de brotes de dengue fuera de las temporadas identificadas como más cálidas. Facultad de Informática Articulo Articulo http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) application/pdf 143-152
institution Universidad Nacional de La Plata
institution_str I-19
repository_str R-120
collection SEDICI (UNLP)
language Español
topic Ciencias Informáticas
Simulation
Dengue
Mosquitoes
Climate change
ARMS
Simulación
Mosquitos
Cambio climático
spellingShingle Ciencias Informáticas
Simulation
Dengue
Mosquitoes
Climate change
ARMS
Simulación
Mosquitos
Cambio climático
Matto, Joaquín
Stella, Joaquín
Maccallini, Lucas
Romero, Fernando
Encinas, Diego
Dengue dynamics: modeling spread and environmental interactions
topic_facet Ciencias Informáticas
Simulation
Dengue
Mosquitoes
Climate change
ARMS
Simulación
Mosquitos
Cambio climático
description The objective of this study is to analyze the behavior of dengue fever in the city of La Plata during one year, considering temperature as an environmental factor, its influence on the mosquito population and the transmission of the DENY virus (which causes dengue fever, also known as dengue fever). To become aware of the magnitude of the problem in the future, and using the temperature estimated by the global warming trend, we sought to project an increase in average annual temperatures for the coming years, and thus estimate the impact on the spread of dengue fever. The Netlogo simulation tool was used to model the behavior of a mosquito population and the spread of the dengue virus through contact with the human population. Using official data from the National Meteorological Service, a scenario of spread was simulated for the period November 2022- November 2023, and the increase in temperature due to climate change was projected to simulate how it affects the spread of the virus and the mosquito population, maintaining the same trend for 2024, 2025 and 2030. It was concluded that climate change may generate an expansion in both the size of mosquito populations and their annual activity, leading to the appearance of dengue outbreaks outside the identified warmer seasons.
format Articulo
Articulo
author Matto, Joaquín
Stella, Joaquín
Maccallini, Lucas
Romero, Fernando
Encinas, Diego
author_facet Matto, Joaquín
Stella, Joaquín
Maccallini, Lucas
Romero, Fernando
Encinas, Diego
author_sort Matto, Joaquín
title Dengue dynamics: modeling spread and environmental interactions
title_short Dengue dynamics: modeling spread and environmental interactions
title_full Dengue dynamics: modeling spread and environmental interactions
title_fullStr Dengue dynamics: modeling spread and environmental interactions
title_full_unstemmed Dengue dynamics: modeling spread and environmental interactions
title_sort dengue dynamics: modeling spread and environmental interactions
publishDate 2024
url http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/173748
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AT maccallinilucas denguedynamicsmodelingspreadandenvironmentalinteractions
AT romerofernando denguedynamicsmodelingspreadandenvironmentalinteractions
AT encinasdiego denguedynamicsmodelingspreadandenvironmentalinteractions
AT mattojoaquin dinamicadeldenguemodelizaciondelapropagacionylasinteraccionesambientales
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AT encinasdiego dinamicadeldenguemodelizaciondelapropagacionylasinteraccionesambientales
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