A new early warning indicator of tree species crashes from effective intraspecific interactions in tropical forests

The vulnerability of species richness to several factors like, climate change, habitat fragmentation, resource exploitation, etc., poses a challenge to conservation biologists and agencies working to sustain the ecosystem services. Hence, there is a clear need for early warning indicators of species...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Fort, Hugo, Grigera, Tomás Sebastián
Formato: Articulo
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: 2021
Materias:
Física
Ecología
Early warning indicators
Species loss
Ecosystem collapse
Tropical forest dynamics
Maximum entropy method
Acceso en línea:http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/159774
Aporte de:
SEDICI (UNLP) de Universidad Nacional de La Plata
id I19-R120-10915-159774
record_format dspace
spelling I19-R120-10915-1597742023-11-03T20:07:01Z http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/159774 A new early warning indicator of tree species crashes from effective intraspecific interactions in tropical forests Fort, Hugo Grigera, Tomás Sebastián 2021 2023-11-03T17:34:43Z en Física Ecología Early warning indicators Species loss Ecosystem collapse Tropical forest dynamics Maximum entropy method The vulnerability of species richness to several factors like, climate change, habitat fragmentation, resource exploitation, etc., poses a challenge to conservation biologists and agencies working to sustain the ecosystem services. Hence, there is a clear need for early warning indicators of species loss generated from empirical data. The tree community of the long-term 50-hectare plot on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, is one of the most intensively studied in the world. This plot was established in 1981 and fully censused in 1982 then every 5 years from 1985 through 2015. This extensive dataset reveals that some tree species suffered steep population declines. Here we propose an early warning indicator of such tree population crashes and test it against the BCI dataset. The spatial covariance matrices, Cij, of the 20 most abundant tree species in BCI allow us to compute, via MaxEnt, the effective interaction matrices, Jij, among these species for the eight censuses available from 1982 to 2015. For each species i and each census c, the absolute value of the intraspecific competition coefficients Jii(c) are much larger than those of the interspecific interaction coefficients Jij(c) with i ∕= j. We show that this result can be derived from a similar empirical relationship observed for the matrices Cii(c). Our main finding is that for those tree species that suffered steep population declines (of at least 50%), across the eight tree censuses, the drop of Jii is always steeper and occurs before the drop of the corresponding species abundance Ni. Indeed, such sharp declines in Jii occur between 5 and 15 years in advance than comparable declines for Ni, and thus they serve as early warnings of impending population busts. Furthermore, this drop of Jii is linked to the anomalous variance, which is a known early warning of incoming catastrophic shifts. Instituto de Física de Líquidos y Sistemas Biológicos Articulo Articulo http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) application/pdf
institution Universidad Nacional de La Plata
institution_str I-19
repository_str R-120
collection SEDICI (UNLP)
language Inglés
topic Física
Ecología
Early warning indicators
Species loss
Ecosystem collapse
Tropical forest dynamics
Maximum entropy method
spellingShingle Física
Ecología
Early warning indicators
Species loss
Ecosystem collapse
Tropical forest dynamics
Maximum entropy method
Fort, Hugo
Grigera, Tomás Sebastián
A new early warning indicator of tree species crashes from effective intraspecific interactions in tropical forests
topic_facet Física
Ecología
Early warning indicators
Species loss
Ecosystem collapse
Tropical forest dynamics
Maximum entropy method
description The vulnerability of species richness to several factors like, climate change, habitat fragmentation, resource exploitation, etc., poses a challenge to conservation biologists and agencies working to sustain the ecosystem services. Hence, there is a clear need for early warning indicators of species loss generated from empirical data. The tree community of the long-term 50-hectare plot on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, is one of the most intensively studied in the world. This plot was established in 1981 and fully censused in 1982 then every 5 years from 1985 through 2015. This extensive dataset reveals that some tree species suffered steep population declines. Here we propose an early warning indicator of such tree population crashes and test it against the BCI dataset. The spatial covariance matrices, Cij, of the 20 most abundant tree species in BCI allow us to compute, via MaxEnt, the effective interaction matrices, Jij, among these species for the eight censuses available from 1982 to 2015. For each species i and each census c, the absolute value of the intraspecific competition coefficients Jii(c) are much larger than those of the interspecific interaction coefficients Jij(c) with i ∕= j. We show that this result can be derived from a similar empirical relationship observed for the matrices Cii(c). Our main finding is that for those tree species that suffered steep population declines (of at least 50%), across the eight tree censuses, the drop of Jii is always steeper and occurs before the drop of the corresponding species abundance Ni. Indeed, such sharp declines in Jii occur between 5 and 15 years in advance than comparable declines for Ni, and thus they serve as early warnings of impending population busts. Furthermore, this drop of Jii is linked to the anomalous variance, which is a known early warning of incoming catastrophic shifts.
format Articulo
Articulo
author Fort, Hugo
Grigera, Tomás Sebastián
author_facet Fort, Hugo
Grigera, Tomás Sebastián
author_sort Fort, Hugo
title A new early warning indicator of tree species crashes from effective intraspecific interactions in tropical forests
title_short A new early warning indicator of tree species crashes from effective intraspecific interactions in tropical forests
title_full A new early warning indicator of tree species crashes from effective intraspecific interactions in tropical forests
title_fullStr A new early warning indicator of tree species crashes from effective intraspecific interactions in tropical forests
title_full_unstemmed A new early warning indicator of tree species crashes from effective intraspecific interactions in tropical forests
title_sort new early warning indicator of tree species crashes from effective intraspecific interactions in tropical forests
publishDate 2021
url http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/159774
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